One way or the other, history will be made at the conclusion of Super Bowl LIX. Either the Chiefs will be the first team to win three Super Bowls in a row, or the Eagles will become the first team to win a Super Bowl “rematch” after losing the first game.
As far as matchups are concerned, it really doesn’t get any better than this, and that’s what makes this game so hard to try to predict. On paper, this game has the makings of another Super Bowl classic, similar to the first Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl. That game literally came down to one or two plays (and calls) determining the outcome.
Along with the experience of having won Super Bowls, the Chiefs have another advantage over the Eagles in that they know exactly who they are, especially on offense. The Chiefs know that Patrick Mahomes will run the show when they have the ball. Conversely, will the Eagles focus on getting Saquon Barkley going early, or will they instead try to get Jalen Hurts off to a good start? Philadelphia’s offense is so good that it actually creates an issue as far as that is concerned.
Where to watch Super Bowl LIX
Date: Sunday, Feb. 9 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
TV: Fox | Stream: fubo (try for free), Tubi (free)
Halftime performer: Kendrick Lamar
Follow: CBS Sports App
Last year, the 49ers got their stud running back, Christian McCaffrey, involved early, and it nearly resulted in victory. But the 49ers unwisely went away from him at critical moments in overtime, and that contributed to their second Super Bowl loss to Kansas City. The Eagles need to make sure that they don’t make that mistake with Barkley.
Speaking of the running game, that’s where the biggest disparity is between these otherwise evenly matched teams. The Eagles possess the NFL’s best running back in Barkley, who is the first 2,000-yard rusher to get to a Super Bowl. Barkley’s presence has opened things up for Hurts and the passing game. It has also enabled the Eagles to routinely win time of possession while keeping opposing offensives off the field. This has to be the case again on Feb. 9 if the Eagles are going to win.
Philadelphia is also going to need a big game from Hurts, who scored four total touchdowns in the Eagles’ NFC title game win over the Commanders. Hurts specifically had success throwing downfield to A.J. Brown, who consistently won his one-on-one matchup with Marshon Lattimore. Brown was single covered because the Eagles have too many weapons to focus too much on one player.
Every defense that plays the Eagles’ offense basically has to pick their poison. Do they stop Hurts and the passing game, or do they try to neutralize Barkley while putting the game on Hurts’ shoulders? If I’m Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, I’m focused on neutralizing Barkley while forcing Hurts to beat me.
If that’s how Spagnuolo decides to play it, it doesn’t mean that it’ll work. Barkley, as we all know, has the unique ability to turn seemingly nothing into a big play. He can also make plays both between the tackles as well as on the outside, so the odds of Barkley being a non-factor in this game is virtually none.
If the Chiefs are able to make things somewhat difficult for Barkley (especially early), this is where Hurts’ performance is so critical. Hurts can’t warm up to the competition; he needs to go into the Super Bowl with the expectation of being aggressive right off the bat. You don’t beat the Chiefs with safe check downs, you beat them with boldness and big plays.
This is also where Hurts’ mobility is key, just as it was when the two teams faced off in the big game two years ago. It’s no secret that Hurts has been playing through a knee injury that has likely led to him running less than he normally would. Barkley has taken some of that burden off of him, but Hurts will still have to make more than a few plays with his legs if the Eagles are going to pull off the upset.
Defensively, the Eagles absolutely have the players to contain Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. The Eagles don’t allow many points (they were second in the NFL in fewest points allowed during the regular season) and they thrive off of getting turnovers. Philadelphia enters the Super Bowl with a +10 turnover ratio during the postseason, while the Chiefs are -1.
You can say that the Eagles’ defense hasn’t faced a quarterback like Mahomes this season. But they did just defeat Jordan Love in the wild-card round, Super Bowl champion and likely future Hall of Famer Matthew Stafford in the divisional round and likely Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels in the NFC title game. Yes, Mahomes presents a different challenge, but it’s safe to say that the Eagles’ defense is more prepared to face the Chiefs’ offense than the Chiefs’ offense is to face them.
Specifically, the Eagles’ pass rush has the ability to pressure Mahomes, which we all know is the blueprint for how to stop him. Just as Spagnuolo is likely coming up with ways to try to contain Barkley, you can assume that Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is devising ways to pressure Mahomes similarly to how the Buccaneers did when they beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.
Kansas City’s line was in shambles then, so it’ll be harder to pressure Mahomes in this game. But as noted earlier, the Eagles have the pass rushers (specifically Josh Sweat, Nolan Smith and Jalen Carter) to win more than their share of matchups against the Chiefs’ talented offensive line. The Eagles’ defense also features one of the game’s best linebackers in Zack Baun and an opportunistic secondary, led by C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who could find himself on the receiving end of an errant Mahomes pass on Feb. 9.
There have been several notable upsets in Super Bowls past. Each time, the team that pulled off the upset had a clutch quarterback, a physical, productive running game and an aggressive defense that put pressure on the quarterback, thus leading to turnovers. The 2024 Eagles have each of those qualities, and that’s why I’m picking them to win Super Bowl LIX.
The Chiefs may be the NFL’s modern day dynasty, but the Eagles are the better and more complete team. That’s why, to quote legendary NFL play-by-play announcer Pat Summerall, “There will be no three-peat!”
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Chiefs 24
MVP: Saquon Barkley: 22 carries, 108 yards, 2 TD
Bonus: Matt Severance, who is on a 37-12 roll on NFL games, just released his best bets for the Super Bowl LIX matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Severance is leaning the Over, but who does he like in the game? Find out here at SportsLine.
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Author: Bryan DeArdo
February 3, 2025 | 10:20 am
