Eagles vs. Commanders in NFC Championship: Which team has coaching edge to get to Super Bowl 59?

The margin between reaching the Super Bowl and not reaching the Super Bowl can be razor thin.

On the NFC side of the postseason bracket, seven different teams have reached the big game in the last 10 years. That kind of parity indicates the teams that reach the NFC championship game need to play their best ball once they get there because a return trip is far from guaranteed. Doing so obviously involves players on the field making plays, but it also means the teams’ respective coaching staffs need to bring their A-game when it comes to the game plan, in-game adjustments and time management. 

Both the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders and second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles have head coaches in Dan Quinn and Nick Sirianni who have led their teams to the Super Bowl, only to suffer narrow defeats against dynasties. Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons lost Super Bowl LI to the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick New England Patriots in overtime and Sirianni’s Eagles lost Super Bowl LVII by a field goal to the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid Kansas City Chiefs. Both staffs have former NFL head coaches as coordinators in Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

So which staff has the edge? Let’s break down the advantages on both sides of the ball as well as the two head coaches to reach a verdict. 

Eagles OC Kellen Moore’s offense vs. Commanders DC Joe Whitt’s defense

Advantage: Eagles by a fair amount

Philadelphia’s rushing offense, powered by 2024 NFL rushing champion running back Saquon Barkley and a star-studded offensive line, possesses a major advantage in both production and scheme over Washington’s rushing defense. 

First, let’s address the production component. The Eagles are the NFL’s No. 2 rushing offense (179.3 rushing yards), readying to face the the NFL’s 30th-ranked run defense in the Commanders (137.5 rushing yards per game allowed). According to the NFL Media Research department, Sunday’s NFC championship game marks the second playoff matchup since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger between a top-three rushing offense and a bottom-three rushing defense. The first was the 1972 AFC divisional round featuring the Cleveland Browns (30th-ranked rushing defense) at the Miami Dolphins (No. 1 rushing offense). Miami ran for 198 yards rushing and a touchdown on 47 carries in a 20-14 victory that day.

So why are those ranks what they are? Well, for starters Barkley is historically dominant, and he also has a top tier offensive line paving rushing lanes for him. On the Washington side of things, they put themselves at a schematic disadvantage against the run. They use their base defense at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (6%, trailing only the Buffalo Bills‘ 4%), and they run nickel personnel, five defensive backs on the field, on an NFL-most 82.7% of their plays. 

That puts Washington at a physical disadvantage against the run, and that manifested itself, even in a winning effort at the top-seeded Detroit Lions in the NFC divisional round. The Commanders surrendered 201 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns while also allowing a yards-per-carry average of 8.7. That made Washington’s 2024 squad the first team since the 2003 Philadelphia Eagles to win a playoff game when allowing over 200 yards rushing. The team’s 8.7 yards per carry allowed was the most allowed in a playoff win since the Dallas Cowboys beat the Green Bay Packers in the 1982 postseason. 

The one hope Washington has to slow down Philadelphia’s run game is Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (knee) not operating at 100% and therefore not being as threatening as a runner. Barkley had 255 yards rushing in the first five quarters against the Commanders this season, but without Hurts (concussion) in the final three quarters of the Week 16 loss at Washington, he ran for 41 yards on 22 carries. Hurts had his right leg rolled up on in an incredibly uncomfortable way in the divisional round against the Los Angeles Rams, so there’s a chance he won’t bring the same mobility on Sunday.

When Hurts drops back to pass is when the Commanders do have a slight edge. Washington has generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks on 41.5% of their dropbacks this postseason without blitzing. They’re getting home with their front four on a fairly high basis. Hurts has been pressured on 48% of his dropbacks without being blitzed in these playoffs, and that rate was up to 52% against the Rams this past Sunday. The Commanders have two Pro Bowl defensive tackles in Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne plus an edge rusher in Dante Fowler Jr. who registered 10.5 sacks this season, tied for the 12th-most in the NFL. If the Commanders’ defense is going to get a win, this is where it will come. 

Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury’s offense vs. Eagles DC Vic Fangio’s defense

Advantage: Eagles by a little

The Eagles’ front four, particularly when rushing the passer, has dominated through the first two rounds of the postseason. That group is why Fangio’s blitz rate of 20.2% was the fourth-lowest in the NFL in the regular season and the lowest in the league in the postseason (18.6%).  Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter’s 12 quarterback pressures are tied for the most in the playoffs with Los Angeles Rams edge rusher Jared Verse, and Philadelphia teammate Nolan Smith’s 11 quarterback pressures are just beind them for the third most in these playoffs. The Georgia Bulldog duo of Carter (seven quarterback pressures, two sacks, two tackles for loss and one forced fumble) and Smith (six quarterback pressures, one sack, one tackle for loss and one forced fumble) teamed up for 13 quarterback pressures, three sacks, three tackles for loss and two forced fumbles against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round.

So how crucial is that production and the low blitz tendencies to slowing down Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels in their third matchup against him? In Washington’s Week 16 win, the Eagles attempted to treat the Commanders quarterback like a rookie by blitzing Daniels on 35.6% of his dropbacks, which was Philadelphia’s second-highest blitz rate in a game this season, including the postseason. That strategy failed with Daniels tearing up the Eagles’ blitz for 173 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions on 10 of his 15 throws while being blitzed. That netted out to a 145.3 passer rating, which was the third highest in an NFL game this season when blitzed on at least 15 throws in a game. Daniels’ 145.3 passer rating in that situation in Week 16 trailed only Stafford’s 152.6 passer rating in Week 11 against the Patriots‘ blitz on 17 of his throws and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s 148.9 passer rating in Week 7 versus the Buccaneers‘ blitz on 15 of his passes.

Philadelphia needs to generate pressure without sending extra rushers in the NFC Championship game. That’s why their 18.6% blitz rate in the postseason being the lowest of all 14 teams to reach the playoffs this year is massive.  

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni vs. Commanders head coach Dan Quinn

Advantage: Commanders slightly 

Sirianni has the advantage of being with the Eagles through a run like this before, reaching the Super Bowl in 2022. Quinn also experienced leading a squad to the Super Bowl, albeit with the Atlanta Falcons in the 2016 season. However, Quinn’s Commanders have totally bought into his message and are playing above their years, particularly Daniels. Washington is also one of the most battle-tested units when it comes to playing close games: their 13 games decided by one possession are tied for the second-most in the NFL, including the postseason, and they have a record of 9-4 in those games. Seven, over half of them, had twists and turns in the last few minutes. The Eagles have played in 11 one-possession games and finished with a 9-2 record in them.

Commanders Notable Finishes This Season

Week 8: beat Bears 18-15 on game-wining, walk-off Hail Mary TD pass

Week 10: lost 38-27 vs. Steelers on WR Mike Williams go-ahead receiving touchdown with 2:22 left

Week 12: lost 34-26 vs. Cowboys after missed game-tying extra point with 21 seconds left

Week 15: won 20-19 at Saints after stopping New Orleans’ game-tying, two-point conversion attempt with no time left

Week 16: won 36-33 vs. Eagles on Jayden Daniels’ game-winning pass TD with six seconds left

Week 17: won 30-24 vs. Falcons on Jayden Daniels’ game-winning pass TD in OT to clinch playoff berth

Week 18: won 23-19 at Cowboys on Marcus Mariota’s game-winning pass TD with three seconds left 

Wild card round: Won 23-20 at Buccaneers after kick Zane Gonzalez doinked in a 37-yard, game-winning field goal as time expired

Between Quinn’s adept fourth down decision making (81% conversion rate, best by any NFL team in a season since at least 1991 including playoffs, min. 20 attempts) in both the regular season and postseason and being able to manage so many close games that went down to the wire so well, he has the slight edge here. 

Verdict

Advantage: Eagles

Moore has six seasons of experience as an offense coordinator while Whitt is in Year 1 as a defensive coordinator. Kingsbury has plenty of head-coaching and play-calling experience, but Fangio also possesses head-coaching experience and pioneered the two-high safety look that has taken over modern NFL defenses. Thanks to the the coordinators, the Eagles staff enters Sunday with the coaching advantage.