NFL Championship Sunday: Who is under most pressure to perform with trip to Super Bowl on the line?

While it’s not the Super Bowl, Championship Sunday is quite the pressure cooker in its own right. Legends are often made on this day too. And each game features teams very familiar with each other. It’ll be the third matchup of the season between the Eagles and Commanders and the fourth matchup in the playoffs between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

And that got us thinking. Who is under the most pressure to either simply perform well, or just win on Sunday? Let’s get to the ranking. 

When the Chiefs roll out Joe Thuney at left guard, Creed Humphrey at center and Trey Smith at right guard, they have the sturdiest interior offensive line trio in the NFL. The only problem, Thuney has been asked to play left tackle given Kansas City’s dire situation at that position, and he’s fared well on the edge, a testament to how well he can simply block defenders, regardless of where he’s aligned before the snap. 

While Thuney has passed the versatility test at a key point in the Chiefs season, his absence at left guard has given way to Caliendo, a 2022 undrafted free agent from Western Michigan, to man that spot next to Humphrey inside. He’s allowed 11 pressures on 262 pass-blocking snaps since the mid-December switch, which isn’t brutal but there’s been a noticeable lack of push in the Chiefs’ run game without Thuney at left guard. From Week 1 to Week 14, the Chiefs were first in success rate on runs at 47.5% in non-garbage time. Since then — and discounting Week 18’s resting of the starters — that figure has dipped to 44.1%, the eighth-highest in the league.

After dominating inside for the past three years, Caliendo has become the clear weak link for Kansas City’s blocking unit, so there’s plenty of pressure on him to play closer to a Thuney level against the Bills. 

How in the world is there pressure on the Eagles’ 2,000-yard back, you ask? This is Superstar Pressure. We all expect Barkley to be outrageously good against a Commanders team that even during its current seven-game win streak is 26th in success rate allowed against the run at 45.3%. 

And frankly, I didn’t even need to include a measure of the strength of Washington’s run defense, because that hasn’t mattered all season for Barkley and the Eagles run game. They’ve demolished everyone in sight. He’s only had three games with under 70 rushing yards, countered by 13 outings of 100-plus yards and a pair of 200-plus yard performances, both against the Rams‘ ferocious defensive line. 

With immense production comes equal pressure, especially because Barkley has become the heart and soul of the Eagles offense. He went for 146 and 150 in the regular-season meetings with Washington. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts has one 200-yard passing game since that Week 11 victory over the Commanders, although he did miss the final three regular-season games with injury. The Eagles likely need another borderline Herculean performance from Barkley to keep pace with the uber-efficient Commanders on Sunday. 

Barkley is not the only vital running back on Championship Sunday. Cook has become a critical component of how the Bills beat teams with his slippery movements between the tackles and deceptive speed once he’s in space. He went over 1,000 yards on the final week of the regular season at a sizable 4.9 yards-per-carry clip, and his 17 rushing touchdowns — counting the playoffs — the third-most in the NFL. 

Buffalo boasts one of the league’s most pulverizing offensive lines, even if it takes six blockers to get the job done on the ground. It initially seems preposterous assuming the player in the backfield with Josh Allen has pressure on him in any game, but counting the playoffs, the Bills have been the fourth-most run-heavy team in football regardless of situation this season. 

7. Commanders interior offensive line

This would be left guard Nick Allegretti, center Tyler Biadasz and whomever lands at right guard to replace the injured Samuel Cosmi. They’re on notice. That group will see Jalen Carter, Milton Williams and Moro Ojomo who, collectively, have registered 143 pressures entering this game. 

Absolutely — Jayden Daniels has played well beyond his years against pressure this season, but defaulting to stellar under-pressure play, on the road, in the conference title, against an elite defense, as a rookie, is a lot to ask if you’re the Commanders. 

And, like every other quarterback, Daniels isn’t as efficient under pressure as he is when kept clean. His completion percentage when not pressured this season is 75.3%. When pressured, it’s 49.6%. The play of the O-line will go a long way in determining how effectively Washington moves the football against the Eagles on Sunday. There is plenty of pressure on those three. 

Brown has been an elite-level separator and one of the finest YAC wideouts in football his entire NFL career, yet the production has been on the opposite end of the spectrum of late. Sure, some of that has to do with Hurts’ injury woes. Regardless of who’s been playing quarterback for Philadelphia or how far from 100% Hurts truly is, Brown should never have six catches for 60 yards across a three-game span, which is exactly the streak of productivity into this conference championship game. 

In fact, it’s the worst three-game stretch of Brown’s Eagles career to date. As someone who’s been a Second Team All-Pro in all three of his seasons in Philadelphia, as the clear No. 1 in the pass game for the Eagles, there’s a fair amount of pressure on Brown to help elevate what Hurts is capable of through the air in this game. 

Sainristil is just another rookie playing like a steady, been-there-done-that veteran on this upstart Commanders team. At 5-foot-10 and 182 pounds after spending most of his time in the slot at Michigan, he’s predominantly been deployed as a boundary cornerback for Washington this season and has thrived. 

His two interceptions in the divisional round were pivotal, and altogether, the pesky first-year cornerback has 99 tackles and 16 pass breakups. Sainristil has been everywhere. He’ll likely draw some Brown in his third meeting with the Eagles, and Devonta Smith has historically been one of the most dynamic No. 2 weapons in football. Sainristil will have man-coverage duties against him too. And Washington plays man 34% of the time, one of the highest rates in the league. 

Can the ridiculously underrated rookie cornerback continue his stellar play against the Eagles receiving duo? If he does, big advantage for the Commanders. 

4. Vic Fangio, DC, Eagles

Fangio has been an NFL defensive coordinator since the 1990s. He’s probably never faced a rookie quarterback as calm, cool, collected and talented as Daniels. 

And for as much as the turnovers have sparked the Commanders’ magical run as the No. 6 seed in the NFC, Daniels has been the true driver. He’s completed 69.6% percent of his throws at a hefty 8.5 yards-per-attempt average with four touchdowns, no interceptions, and 87 yards on the ground. Also, he’s famously diced the blitz in these playoffs to the tune of 358 yards on 25-of-34 passing with one touchdown and no picks. 

Yes, the Eagles have plenty of talent on this defense, but its coordinator has his work cut out for him in this game. After a disastrous year with the Dolphins in 2023, Fangio has reestablished his reputation this season. Yet that reconstruction will be mostly forgotten if Daniels shreds the Eagles again like he did in Washington’s Week 16 win over the Eagles when he threw for five touchdowns and no interceptions. 

3. Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles

Every single sports show this week — TV, radio, or internet — has posed this question; Can the Eagles win without Hurts playing a good game through the air? And while the answers have been mixed, there is reason to believe Philadelphia will need more from its quarterback in this game, even though they’ve gotten this far largely on the shoulders of the defense, offensive line, and Barkley. 

Hurts has thrown for 131 and 128 yards in two playoff games entering this game. In his two other postseason victories to date, he’s thrown for 154 yards and 121 yards. History tells us he doesn’t need to provide a prolific aerial outing for the Eagles to emerge from this game victorious. 

However, if — and maybe this is a big IF — the Eagles are in a tight game in the second half, there’s a strong likelihood they’ll need Hurts to connect on a few high-degree-of-difficulty throws to keep pace with Daniels and Co. 

2. Josh Allen, QB, Bills 

Allen has been one of the game’s most dynamic quarterbacks since 2020, and he’s raised his level of play in the postseason. In three losses against the Chiefs in the playoffs, he’s 81 of 127 (63.8%) for 902 yards (7.10 yards per) with nine touchdowns, one interception, and 221 rushing yards. 

All those numbers don’t matter for this game. He needs to get over the mountain. 

He stepped off the field with 13 seconds remaining, having led back-to-back go-ahead drives in the final three minutes of the game in Arrowhead Stadium. The Bills lost. Last year, he got his team into field goal range for what would’ve been a game-tying kick with under three minutes left. The Bills lost. 

Will Allen need to be a superhero in this game? Or is playing smart, methodical football the method to beating the Chiefs? 

1. Sean McDermott, HC, Bills

It’s not discussed much, but McDermott’s game-management woes against the Chiefs date to the AFC Championship in 2020, when after three-consecutive Kansas City touchdown drives, Allen drove Buffalo to the Chiefs’ 2-yard line with 21 seconds to go before halftime. 

With one of the best offenses in football that year, McDermott elected to kick a 20-yard field goal, and the Bills trailed 21-12 at the half. In one of its only defensive stops of the entire game, the Bills held the Chiefs to a field goal on the opening drive of the third quarter, and again, Buffalo marched down the field. On a fourth-and-3 from the Chiefs’ 8-yard line, McDermott decided to kick another short field goal to make the score 24-15. The rest of the game was all Kansas City. Those two decisions loomed large, as that more conservative Buffalo team potentially missed out on points it desperately needed against a juggernaut Chiefs team. 

There was everything that transpired in 13 Seconds. There was the fake punt a season ago. 

Now, McDermott has fully embraced the aggression that should come with the presence of Allen at quarterback. Instead of intense fear of losing that emanated to his players, he’s playing to win, and those on offense and defense on Buffalo’s roster have felt the vibe switch. This is not a gimmicky team. And McDermott has become the most accomplished coach — win-wise — of the past five years to not make a Super Bowl. There is, unequivocally, more pressure on McDermott than anyone else involved in these conference championships.