X-factor for NFC Championship teams: Eagles’ defensive front, Commanders’ secondary crucial in playoff bout

The NFC Championship game this Sunday features the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders taking on the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles as the division rivals get to meet a third and final time this season to decide who will be the conference’s representative in the Super Bowl.

There have been five conference championship games with two NFC East teams in the division’s history, and Sunday will be the first since Washington vs. the New York Giants in 1986. In the last two all-NFC East conference championship games, the winner went on to win the Super Bowl: the 1986 Giants and Washington in 1982. 

So what’s going to be the key to swing the third matchup between these teams that split their two regular-season meetings? The division rivals split the regular-season series with each team winning at home by one score. Philadelphia won 26-18 in Week 11, and Washington won 36-33 in Week 16 with Daniels throwing a game-winning, 9-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Jamison Crowder with six seconds left to play. It’s worth noting Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts missed the last three quarters of Philadelphia’s Week 16 defeat with a concussion. 

Obviously, Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and Eagles running back Saquon Barkley are the drivers of their respective teams. Barkley, the 2024 NFL rushing champion who is fresh off a historic divisional-round performance, totaled 296 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns on 55 carries for an average of 5.4 yards per carry against Washington in the two regular-season matchups. Daniels went off for five passing touchdowns in addition to two interceptions and 258 yards passing on 24 of 39 passing while adding 81 rushing yards on nine carries in Washington’s Week 16 win.

Let’s take a look at one X-factor per team, beyond both Barkley and Daniels, that will be crucial in determining which squad represents the NFC in the Super Bowl this season. 

Eagles — Defensive front

Philadelphia’s defensive front, particularly when rushing the passer, has put on a clinic through the first two rounds of the postseason. Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter’s 12 quarterbacks pressures are tied for the most this postseason along with Los Angeles Rams edge rusher Jared Verse, and Philadelphia teammate Nolan Smith’s 11 quarterback pressures are right behind them for the third most in these playoffs. The Georgia Bulldog duo of Carter (seven quarterback pressures, two sacks, two tackles for loss and one forced fumble) and Smith (six quarterback pressures, one sack, one tackle for loss and one forced fumble) combined for 13 quarterback pressures, three sacks, three tackles for loss and two forced fumbles against Matthew Stafford and the Rams last Sunday. 

So how crucial are they to slowing down Daniels in their third matchup against him? In Washington’s Week 16 win, the Eagles attempted to treat the Commanders quarterback like a rookie by blitzing Daniels on 35.6% of his dropbacks, which was Philadelphia’s second-highest blitz rate in a game of the 2024 season, including the playoffs. That approach didn’t work as Daniels tore up the Eagles’ blitz for 173 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions on 10 of his 15 throws while being blitzed. That netted out to a 145.3 passer rating, which was the third highest in an NFL game this season when blitzed on at least 15 throws in a game. 

Daniels’ 145.3 passer rating in that situation in Week 16 trailed only Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 152.6 passer rating in Week 11 against the Patriots‘ blitz on 17 of his throws and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s 148.9 passer rating in Week 7 versus the Buccaneers‘ blitz on 15 of his passes.

Philadelphia will need to get home without sending extra rushers in the NFC Championship game. The good news for the Eagles is that they have been thus far this postseason: Their 18.6% blitz rate in the playoffs is the lowest of all 14 teams to reach the playoffs this year. They’ll need a similar type of performance from Carter and Smith on Sunday to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2022 season.

Commanders — Secondary

The Commanders were the league’s third-best pass defense in the regular season, allowing 189.5 passing yards per game. Washington 2024 second-round pick cornerback Mike Sainristil’s 71.3 passer rating against as the primary defender was the 16th best in the NFL among 39 players who were targeted at least 80 times. This postseason, in two games played, he’s dropped that figure down to 27.1 on eight targets with two interceptions off Lions quarterback Jared Goff, which is tied for the most in the playoffs along with Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. Commanders second-round pick safety Quan Martin has actually performed even better, albeit on a much smaller sample size with a 16.7 passer rating against him as the primary defender in coverage on two targets with an interception off Goff. 

Slowing down Barkley is obviously priority No. 1, but it’s unclear how realistic that is given Washington was the regular season’s third-worst run defense, allowing 137.5 rushing yards per game. In the playoffs, the Commanders have allowed 151.0 rushing yards per game in two games, which ranks eighth out of the NFL’s 14 postseason teams. Bending but not breaking against Barkley and Hurts, when he decides to scramble or keep on a zone read, and then continuing to get mostly lockdown efforts from their secondary is how Washington can continue creating turnovers. If the Commanders are doing that and providing advantageous field position for Daniels like they did in Detroit, Washington could return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1991 season.