Who gets the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye if the Vikings and Lions tie in Week 18?

The NFL script writers sure saved the best for last. The Lions host the Vikings on “Sunday Night Football” to end the regular season, the first regular-season game in NFL history between teams with 13-plus wins.

You couldn’t draw up a regular-season game with much more at stake than this one. The winner of the game will be the one seed in the NFC, win the NFC North and have home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Neither team would have to play outdoors all postseason.

The loser will get the five seed in the NFC and go on the road in the wild-card round (either at the Rams, Buccaneers or Falcons), becoming the first 14-win team to ever play in that round. There’s a good chance the five seed’s path to the Super Bowl would include a road game at the NFC North champion in the divisional round and the No. 2 seed Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. 

That’s a massive difference, considering one seeds have made 49 Super Bowls since the playoffs expanded to 10 teams in 1978, and five seeds have made a grand total of three.

OK but what if there’s a tie? 

There has not been a tie since Week 13 of 2022 between the Giants and Commanders, but if you remember the Chargers-Raiders regular season finale in 2021, anything can happen. The Raiders won that game on a 47-yard field goal as time expired in overtime; otherwise it would have ended in a tie and the Steelers would have missed the playoffs.

A tie in Sunday’s Vikings-Lions game wouldn’t be quite that doomsday scenario. The Lions would get the one seed because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings courtesy of a 31-29 win in Minnesota in Week 7.

In the event of a tie, it also means Detroit’s result on Monday in San Francisco wasn’t completely meaningless. If the Lions had lost that game and tied in Week 18 vs. the Vikings, they would be the five seed.

I think Dan Campbell would sooner instantaneously combust than play for a tie in overtime, but if somehow the game ended in a tie, the Lions would be the beneficiaries.