2024 NFL playoff picture: How Bengals, Dolphins and Colts can still make postseason after Chargers’ victory

There is officially only one spot left to be clinched in the AFC playoffs. Going into Week 17, there were two spots up for grabs, but the Los Angeles Chargers grabbed one of those with their 40-7 win over the New England Patriots on Saturday.

With the Chargers now in, that means there are now four teams vying for the AFC’s final playoff spot: The Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals. 

The Broncos had a chance to clinch the final spot on Saturday, but they came up empty in a wild loss to the Bengals. Joe Burrow threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to Tee Higgins to clinch a 30-24 win in overtime. 

Despite the loss, the Broncos are still in the driver’s seat for the final spot: To clinch the final playoff berth in the AFC all they have to do is win in Week 18 against a Kansas City team that will likely be benching its starters (The Chiefs already clinched the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, so they have nothing to play for.)

As for the other three teams, they’re all long shots right now, but one of them could get in if a few things go their way over the final two weeks. 

Let’s check out what needs to happen for each team to get in. 

What Bengals need to get to the playoffs: 

• Bengals win in Week 18 (at Steelers)
• Broncos lose in Week 18 (vs. Chiefs)
• Colts lose at least one more game (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
• Dolphins lose at least one more game (at Browns, at Jets)

Verdict: Thanks to their win over the Broncos, the Bengals kept their playoff hopes alive heading into the final week of the season. That being said, the Bengals are in a tough spot here for two reasons: For one, the Chiefs will likely be benching their starters in Week 18, which will make it much easier for Denver to win. And two, the Colts have the easiest remaining strength of schedule with games against the 2-13 Giants and 3-12 Jaguars. However, the Colts won’t have Anthony Richardson, who’s been ruled out for Sunday’s game against New York. Joe Flacco will be getting the start in his place. 

What Colts need to get to the playoffs: 

• Colts win out (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
• Dolphins win out (at Browns, at Jets)
• Broncos lose in Week 18 (vs. Chiefs)

Verdict: If this happens, the Colts, Dolphins and Broncos will all finish at 9-8 and although the Colts lost to the Broncos, they’d still get in the playoffs thanks to the Dolphins. With Miami at 9-8, that would create a three-way tiebreaker and the Colts would win that (The Colts would also win a four-way tiebreaker if the Bengals were to also win out in this scenario). 

What Dolphins need to get to the playoffs: 

• Dolphins win out (at Browns, at Jets)
• Broncos lose in Week 18 (vs. Chiefs)
• Colts lose at least one more game (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)

Verdict: In a head-to-head situation with the Broncos, the Dolphins would get in over Denver based on having a better conference record. The Dolphins would also get in if they end up in a three-way tie with the Bengals and Broncos at 9-8. The problem for the Dolphins is that they likely won’t have Tua Tagovailoa for Sunday’s game against Cleveland. Tua, who has been battling a hip injury, has been downgraded to doubtful, which means it’s very likely that Tyler Huntley will be the starter. 

If the Broncos beat the Chiefs in Week 18, then you can throw each of these scenarios out the window because a win over Kansas City will clinch the AFC’s final playoff spot for Denver.