Week 17 in the NFL rings in on Christmas Day with a doubleheader that concludes at NRG Stadium, where the Houston Texans will host the Baltimore Ravens.
This could potentially be a playoff preview between these AFC clubs. The Texans enter this game already clinching the AFC South title and currently sitting as the No. 4 seed. Meanwhile, the Ravens have secured a spot in the postseason and are situated as the No. 5 seed entering Week 17. So, if the season were to end today, this would’ve been a first-round matchup.
However, Baltimore is knotted with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North and are off the heels of beating the Steelers last Saturday to snuff the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Ravens can take care of business down the stretch and Pittsburgh drops one of its final two games, they’d leapfrog as division champs.
These teams are also no strangers to one another in these high-pressure contests as they squared off last postseason with Baltimore besting Houston in the divisional round.
To get you even more ready for this matchup, let’s unwrap this game even further with our preview below.
Texans vs. Ravens where to watch
Date: Wednesday, Dec. 25 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, Texas)
Stream: Netflix
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Ravens -5.5, O/U 46.5 (via SportsLine consensus)
When the Ravens have the ball
Of course, Lamar Jackson is the straw that stirs the drink with the Ravens offense, and the Texans know that quite well. During last year’s playoff win, Jackson put together a sensational performance that highlighted his lethal dual-threat ability. The two-time MVP passed for 152 yards and two touchdowns while adding 100 yards and two more scores on the ground. Jackson has continued that play this season and is again among the favorites for league MVP.
While a lot is made about Jackson’s mobility, he continues to show elite passing ability, coming into this game with a league-leading 8.9 yards per attempt average. To make him an even more maddening matchup for Houston, he also leads the league in yards per rush (6.1).
Through the air, Jackson has intriguing weapons, most notably second-year wideout Zay Flowers. The former first-rounder is coming off a five-catch performance last week against the Steelers, where he topped 100 yards receiving, getting him over 1,000 yards receiving on the year.
Flowers has been a key outlet for Jackson outside of the 20-yard line, but as the team does creep into the red zone, the focus shifts to running back Derrick Henry. The veteran running back has been a tremendous addition to Baltimore’s offense, creating a lethal one-two punch between him and Jackson. The duo has combined for 2,401 rushing yards this season, which is already the third-most by a QB-RB duo in a season all-time. Henry enters this game with 15 total touchdowns on the year.
After a slow start to the season, tight end Mark Andrews has also come on strong and has found the end zone in four straight games. Over his last six contests, Andrews has hauled in 25 of his 30 targets for 262 yards and five touchdowns.
When the Texans have the ball
The Texans came into this season with arguably the deepest wide receiver room in the NFL. Already boasting Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Houston went out and traded for Stefon Diggs to push their chips into the center of the table after landing C.J. Stroud. While that was a valiant effort to boost the offense, injuries have taken a huge bite out of this unit. Diggs suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 8, and, more recently, Dell went down for the year with a dislocated kneecap and torn ACL in last week’s loss to Kansas City.
So, that leaves Collins as the clear top option for Stroud when he drops back to pass, and it’ll be up to the rest of the Texans receiver unit to step up down the stretch. John Metchie III, Robert Woods, and Xavier Hutchinson are the other wide receivers on the Texans roster. One interesting wrinkle could be Diontae Johnson, who was claimed by Houston following a failed tenure with the Ravens this season after they acquired him at the trade deadline. It’s unclear if he will play in this game, given the quick turnaround, but if he does, it will set up a fascinating revenge storyline on top of joining a team that desperately needs depth at receiver.
Beyond that position group, the Texans have largely enjoyed a sturdy season from running back Joe Mixon. Coming into Week 17, Mixon has already topped 1,200 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns on the season. That said, he’ll look to get back to a more prolific clip after failing to top 60 yards rushing in three of his previous four outings.
Texans vs. Ravens key matchup
It’s an elementary observation, but limiting Baltimore’s success in the red zone will be massive for Houston. The Ravens come into this game with a league-best 72.8% touchdown rate when they enter the red zone this season. Of course, that’s thanks to the array of ways this offense can score, either utilizing Henry’s brute strength, Jackson’s shiftiness as a runner, or the quarterback’s ability to find the open receiver. Meanwhile, the Texans defense currently ranks 27th in the league in red zone efficiency, with opponents scoring a touchdown on 64.1% of their trips.
Texans vs. Ravens prediction
The Ravens opened as a road favorite in this game, and it appears the public believes they could run away with this game as the line has continued to increase, currently sitting at Baltimore -5.5. The Texans have been pedestrian at keeping games close at home as they own a 3-3-1 record against the spread at NRG Stadium, albeit covering their lone game as a home underdog. However, the Ravens (5-2 ATS as a road favorite) could prove to be too much for this team to handle if they are firing on all cylinders.
As we noted above, if Baltimore can get into the red zone — and they are tied for the fourth-most red zone scoring attempts per game this season (3.9) — they typically find a way to hit pay dirt. That’s especially true against this Houston defense that hasn’t stood tall in that area of the field this season. Ravens should win (and cover) on Christmas.
Projected score: Ravens 28, Texans 20
The pick: Ravens -5.5
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Author: Tyler Sullivan
December 24, 2024 | 12:47 pm
