5 things we liked and didn’t like from Week 16: Bills’ reason for concern? Packers’ opening drive brilliance

For all of its warts, the NFL knows what it’s doing when it comes to producing on-field drama. With two weeks left, there are 19 teams in playoff contention. There are zero NFC divisions wrapped up, there are races for both conferences’ No. 1 seed, and there are franchise-altering results to come.

There’s also drama at the bottom, where the race for the No. 1 pick is coming down to the wire, and the Giants (2-13) are winning that race by losing. Then there are five 3-12 teams, so the rest of the top of the draft is in a dead heat, too.

With two more busy weeks to go — Week 17 features two Christmas games, a Thursday night game, three Saturday games, nine Sunday games and a Monday game — the NFL is certainly delivering during the holiday season. As always, there was plenty to like … and not like … in Week 16.

Five things we liked

1. Jayden Daniels dominates the blitz

In Week 15, Jayden Daniels took eight sacks, and the Commanders just barely held on against the struggling Saints. The Eagles‘ excellent defense loomed large.

And then Daniels threw five touchdowns, including the game-winner to Jamison Crowder with six seconds left, against Philadelphia. Perhaps just as impressive, he took just one sack and absolutely shredded the Eagles when they brought pressure.

The Eagles entered the game allowing the third-fewest yards per attempt (6.2) when blitzing. Daniels, when blitzed Sunday, went 10-for-15 for 173 yards (11.5 per attempt). The Eagles had allowed just two touchdowns passing when blitzing all year; Daniels had three Sunday alone, including this beauty to Terry McLaurin:

It was eerily similar to another excellent Daniels throw this season, only on the other side of the formation:

Daniels’ four touchdowns passing on “go” routes are tied for the NFL lead.

2. Packers‘ opening drive

The Packers and the Saints are examples of two teams going in very different directions, and that was clear and obvious in Green Bay’s 34-0 “Monday Night Football” beatdown.

What made it so clear and obvious was Green Bay’s first drive: 10 plays for 63 yards in 6:19. Josh Jacobs got six touches for 40 yards, Jordan Love went 4-for-4 for 24 yards, and Dontayvion Wicks caught a 2-yard touchdown.

You may wonder why it wasn’t offensive pass interference. Here’s why: The contact is within 1 yard of the line of scrimmage. It’s a perfect play call that bamboozled New Orleans. When we say football is a game of inches, Wicks being not an inch too far downfield is part of that. Green Bay was creative and exacting from the jump.

Since Week 11, the Packers have scored a league-high 28 points on opening drives, and they’ve made no bones about their intentions. They’ve run the ball over 60% of their opening-drive plays, sixth-highest in the league, and that means a heavy dose of Jacobs.

There’s an idea that physical running teams wear on their opponents throughout the game and then close strong. That’s true, but that undersells the impact of how a physical ground attack can set the tone, too. If teams don’t come correct against Green Bay, they will quickly find themselves on the back foot.

3. Joe Burrow is ‘Superman’

Don’t take my word for it. Those are Tee Higgins‘ words. (Even though Burrow recently purchased a Batmobile.)

It’s easy to see why Higgins thinks this. Look at this touchdown pass.

Really, Burrow has been doing this all year, even though it hasn’t been to this dramatic/artistic extent. He is a play extender extraordinaire. His 13 touchdowns passing when he takes at least three seconds to throw are tied with Sam Darnold for second-most in the NFL, only behind Lamar Jackson.

Unlike Darnold, Burrow doesn’t play in a play action-heavy offense. Unlike Jackson, he doesn’t have superhero scrambling and other athletic powers, Instead, Burrow’s superpower is his pocket navigation. When you filter out play action, Burrow’s 12 touchdowns on throws that take three seconds or more rank first in the NFL.

4. Falcons‘ defense gets pressure

Michael Penix Jr. had a strong debut, and he could have been the choice here. But let’s give credit to the other side: Atlanta’s pass rush, dormant for much of the season, has come to life. On Sunday, the Falcons’ pass rush generated three sacks, 11 pressures, a Matthew Judon pick-six and a Kaden Elliss turnover.

This continues an upward trend.

Even more encouraging is this has happened despite the Falcons blitzing less. Instead, Judon, Elliss and Arnold Ebiketie are simply playing better. And while the last two games have been against bad teams on their third quarterbacks, Atlanta also got good pressure against the Chargers and Vikings.

If Minnesota makes the playoffs, the switch from Kirk Cousins to Penix will be a big reason. But the defensive improvement shouldn’t go overlooked.

5. Lions stumble (on purpose) and go long

My favorite plays this week belong to my favorite offense to watch. The Lions picked on and picked apart a stumbling Bears defense (more on that in a bit) by, quite literally, stumbling.

Yes, this was a planned fake botched snap. Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who figures to be a strong candidate for the Chicago job, is an absolute menace. In fact, he got this idea from Love completing a deep pass on a play he started with a fumble against … you guessed it … the Bears.

But there were no bells and whistles on the Lions’ other huge highlight. Just speed. Lots of speed.

I have a sneaky feeling Williams will earn GOAT (greatest of all-time) or goat (guy to blame) status this postseason, because he can be a game-breaker like this, but he’s also known to drop a potential big play or two. This catch was a good sign.

Oh yeah, and let’s credit Jahmyr Gibbs, who had 154 yards from scrimmage in Detroit’s first game without David Montgomery this season. I wish I could dedicate more of this to him, but when you’re on the Lions offense, everyone gets lots of love.

Five things we didn’t like

1. Titans don’t follow through

Last week, head coach Brian Callahan went on an epic, explicit rant defending his team’s toughness. Let me be very, very clear here. No one in the NFL is soft. I’d never suggest that. Every play looks like a car crash, and these guys being able to get up and do it again is superhuman.

Having said that, the timing of the Titans allowing 335 yards rushing on 6.7 yards per pop — including 218 yards by Jonathan Taylor — was less than ideal. The Colts averaged 3.5 yards per carry before contact and another 3.2 after contact, suggesting Tennessee was blown off the ball and didn’t tackle well. Indeed, on Taylor’s 70-yard touchdown, he was hardly touched, and on Josh Downs‘ 27-yard score, he broke a tackle and jogged in with no one else in sight.

It’s been a tough year for the Titans, and Sunday was a tough look.

2. Cardinals go quietly 

The Cardinals’ results very much reflect the team as a whole: streaky. And streaky isn’t good enough. Arizona was eliminated from playoff contention with a 36-30 overtime loss to the Panthers.

After starting 2-4, the Cardinals ripped off four straight wins to go to 6-4 entering their bye. They have lost four of five since. Sunday’s loss was as bad as any.

• Arizona trailed 20-3 halfway through the second quarter.
• Arizona had 11 penalties, including on its very first offensive snap: A 14-yard completion to Trey McBride was brought back because Marvin Harrison Jr. lined up offside. Another early drive featured three penalties, including a holding call that wiped out a fourth-down conversion and forced Arizona to settle for a field goal.
• Arizona also had two turnovers: Kyler Murray and fourth-string running back Michael Carter messed up a basic handoff, and Murray threw an awful pick.

I just don’t get this Arizona team. I get there are holes on both sides of the ball — the ones on the defensive side really showed — but Murray had a 40% passing success rate Sunday, his worst of the season. He actually made some great plays helping Arizona claw back, but there were too many missed opportunities. Harrison has had a far bumpier rookie season than expected, and he hasn’t been a contested catch winner nor on the same page as Murray. He has caught just 51 of his 100 targets, the worst rate of all 25 players with at least 100 targets this year.

McBride summed up how everyone should feel:

3. Browns‘ offense goes backwards

One of the most exciting aspects of the Browns switching from Deshaun Watson to Jameis Winston, from an on-field perspective, was the fact that at least we’d see Cleveland try to get the downfield passing game going. On Sunday, Dorian Thompson-Robinson replaced Winston as starter and promptly went 0-for-6 with an interception on throws 15-plus yards downfield.

It’s just the eighth time this season a quarterback has gone 0-for-6 (or worse) on throws 15-plus yards downfield, a list that fittingly includes Watson.

It’s understandable that the Browns moved off Winston after a three-interception performance. But it’s also a good reminder that different doesn’t mean better, and it can often mean worse. The Browns’ offense Sunday was hard to watch and a reminder of just how far the team has to go at the game’s most important position.

4. Bears defense continues late-season slide

In a similar vein to the Browns’ offense, the Bears’ defense fits the “different doesn’t mean better, and it can often mean worse” idea. The Bears had to fire Matt Eberflus after the Thanksgiving disaster. But ever since then, the defense — Eberflus’ side of the ball — has fallen off a cliff.

On Sunday, the Bears allowed a 58% third-down conversion rate (worst all year) and allowed 475 yards (second-worst). As if the huge plays through the air above weren’t enough, the Lions had a 65.6% rushing success rate, their best mark since Week 1.

There are no easy answers when firing your head coach, but the progress Caleb Williams showed under Thomas Brown has stalled since Brown went to head coach, where he has less time to focus on the offense. And the defense has fallen apart. Chicago has a long way to go, too.

5. Bills‘ slow start a sign of underlying issue?

The Bills’ slow start against the Patriots shows a quiet issue that can percolate. Sometimes, the Bills lean too much on Josh Allen. In the first half, Buffalo ran 23 plays; 19 were a Josh Allen throw or run. The four that weren’t included a 46-yard James Cook touchdown.

Offensive coordinator Joe Brady must have looked at those numbers at halftime, because he course corrected immediately. Cook got five rushes for 40 yards on Buffalo’s first drive of the second half, which ended in a touchdown from Allen to Cook. Overall in the second half, Buffalo had 22 rushes (18 by running backs) and 12 passes.

I actually noticed this imbalance a couple of weeks ago, when Allen ran or passed on 20 of the Bills’ 25 plays over their first five possessions against the Rams. Of course, Allen then caught fire and did something no one has done since 1954, so I couldn’t really include this issue then. And yes, the Bills still got the win this Sunday, so maybe I’m picking nits.

When at their best, the Bills have an effective run team that can not only play second fiddle to Allen heroics but take the lead when needed. Just because Allen can do everything doesn’t mean he should.

Again, maybe I’m being overly harsh. I very much think the Bills are a bonafide Super Bowl contender, Allen is the MVP and the team is well-coached and well-rounded. But in the one-and-done postseason where a slow start can be a season-ender, I’d hate to see Buffalo forget about its very capable, explosive run game.