How to bet Saints vs. Packers: Sportsbook promos, picks and trends for Week 16 Monday Night Football

Week 16 appears to offer the Monday Night Football mismatch of 2024 when the New Orleans Saints (5-9) visit the Green Bay Packers (10-4) in the penultimate MNF game of the regular season. Green Bay would make the playoffs with a victory. It’s not 100% clear why this game wasn’t flexed out given how bad the Saints are, but it likely has something to do with last Thursday night’s game being flexed and the unusual slate this coming week due to Christmas. The Packers, always major TV draws and playing their fourth straight primetime game, are -14 with a total of 42.5. We might get some snow at Lambeau Field. 

New Orleans, eliminated from playoff contention, fired head coach Dennis Allen weeks ago and is playing out the string under interim coach Darren Rizzi, formerly the special teams coordinator. Despite being dealt a pretty bad overall hand, largely due injuries, the Saints have not quit under Rizzi — they are 3-2 in his watch and haven’t allowed an opposing team to score more than 21 points in that stretch. Rookie Spencer Rattler will start at quarterback on Monday with Derek Carr out again. 

The 54-year-old Rizzi, whose only previous head coaching experience was at New Haven and Rhode Island, has made a case for the full-time job and one book lists him as the +400 second favorite (tied with Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson) to win the job, behind Buffalo offensive coordinator Joe Brady (+300). It makes some sense Brady is the favorite given how dominant the Bills offense has been this year. Brady is a former Saints assistant and LSU passing game coordinator. The Saints job, though, will not be one of the better ones open in the offseason as no team is in worse salary cap shape and there is no franchise quarterback on the roster. New Orleans likely won’t pick high enough in the 2025 NFL Draft to get a top prospect at the position.

Green Bay can’t win the NFC North, so it’s a matter of which NFC wild-card seed the Packers get. They currently sit sixth and definitely want to avoid the No. 7 seed, as that most likely means an opening game in Philadelphia or Detroit, the two conference favorites — and the Packers are a combined 0-3 against them this season. In fact, they are 10-0 vs. opponents with fewer than 12 wins this season and 0-4 against those with at least 12 victories. 

Entering Week 16, the SportsLine Projection Model gave the Packers the third-best shot of winning the NFC at 17.6% (equates to +468; they’re at DraftKings +600), behind only the Eagles (28.5%) and Lions (21.5%). Traveling to the NFC South champion (currently the Atlanta Falcons) or NFC West winner (currently the Los Angeles Rams) on Wild Card Weekend would be much preferred. Following this game, Green Bay plays at Minnesota (a matchup that will definitely have wild-card implications) and at home vs. eliminated Chicago. 

We’ll take you through every aspect of the Saints-Packers game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including sportsbook promos and the best odds, along with SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.

Get updated lines and picks on SportsLine’s game forecast page for this matchup.  

Betting on MNF: Saints vs. Packers

Green Bay has won 18 of 28 regular-season matchups, and the teams have never met in the postseason. The Packers are 11-3 at home in the series with a combined point differential of plus-127 (average of 9.1 PPG). Six of the past seven between the clubs at Lambeau Field have been decided by single digits, including an 18-17 victory by Green Bay last season in Week 3.

That was Packers QB Jordan Love’s first regular-season start at Lambeau, and he led the team back from a 17-0 deficit with 11 minutes remaining with two touchdown passes (a field goal was also mixed in), the last to Romeo Doubs with 2:56 remaining for the winning score after the converted PAT kick. The Saints’ Blake Grupe had a chance to win it on a 46-yard field-goal attempt with 1:05 left, but the kick was wide right. QB Derek Carr was knocked out in the third quarter with to a shoulder injury suffered on a Rashan Gary sack — he finished with three sacks. The Over is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings. 

Best betting odds and lines for Saints vs. Packers on MNF

Expert picks for Saints vs. Packers on MNF

The SportsLine Projection Model is projecting the final score to land Over the consensus total of of 42, but subscribers can see which side of the Saints-Packers spread is the best value according to the model at SportsLine or on the CBS Sports app. Expert R.J. White is on a 74-32-2 roll on Packers games, and he’s leaning Under. He also shared his Saints-Packers spread pick at SportsLine.

Other SportsLine experts have also weighed in on several props for the game. Larry Hartstein, up +1163 on NFL player props this season, is SportsLine’s defensive prop specialist and expects a big night from a Saints linebacker. I’m 43-27 in my last 70 NFL props and believe the Packers will pull QB Jordan Love early in a likely blowout, and I’m thus leaning Under one of his numbers. Those picks and more are available for SportsLine members on the website or the CBS Sports app. 

Sportsbook betting promos for Saints vs. Packers on MNF

Those looking to bet Monday night’s game may want to consider doing so with the current DraftKings Sportsbook promotion. New users at DraftKings can get $150 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins. 

Check out more welcome promotions from key sportsbooks below.

What to know before betting Saints vs. Packers

New Orleans Saints

Injuries

Carr, Kamara and Olave are New Orleans’ three best offensive players and all three are likely done for the year. Kendre Miller should be the primary tailback in Kamara’s absence. 

Trends 

New Orleans is 3-7 against the spread in its past 10 games, 1-4 ATS in the past five away and 1-4 ATS in the past five against the NFC North. It has covered the first-quarter spread in seven of its past 10 road games but has failed to cover the second-half spread in 10 of its past 16 overall. The Under is 4-1 in the Saints’ past five overall and 13-2 in their past 15 December games. The second-half Over is 10-5 in their past 15, and the fourth-quarter Over 11-6 in their past 17.

Green Bay Packers

Injuries

The Pro Bowler Alexander, who was a full participant in practice last week, first injured his knee against Jacksonville in late October and hasn’t played since a brief outing against Chicago in Week 10. Musgrave practiced in a limited capacity last week and would need to be activated off injured reserve to play Monday. The team does have a roster spot open. 

Trends  

Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five games and 5-2 ATS in its past seven against the NFC but 3-6 ATS in the past nine vs. the NFC South. It has covered the first-quarter spread in 15 of the past 21 overall and second-quarter spread in 11 of the past 15. The Under is 4-2 in the Packers’ past six and 5-2 in their previous seven on a Monday. But the Over is 6-1 in their past seven December games. The fourth-quarter Under is 13-6 in their past 19 overall.

Weather in Green Bay    

Everyone likes to say “frozen tundra” when referring to Lambeau Field, but it actually doesn’t freeze these days thanks to a heating system underneath the field. It will be snowing during the day but doesn’t look too bad Monday night: Flurries or snow showers possible early. Cloudy. Low near 21F. Winds light and variable. That surely will not feel pleasant to the dome-dwelling Saints. 

The matchup

This will mark the 32nd straight season the Packers play on Monday Night Football, the league’s longest streak in history. It’s also the latest MNF game ever at Lambeau Field and only the fourth in December. The Packers won the previous three in 2022, 2014 and 2009. We noted above this is their fourth straight primetime game in 2024, which is a first for the franchise in a single season since the merger. The Packers are averaging 30.0 PPG at night this year. 

All-time, Green Bay is 37-34-1 on MNF and has won six of the past eight. Under head coach Matt LaFleur, the team is 5-2 on MNF. That .714 winning percentage ranks No. 6 in the NFL since 2019. The Packers’ five wins on MNF are tied for the fifth-most in that span. They have won five straight at home on MNF, the longest such streak in franchise history. Green Bay (4-0) and Pittsburgh (6-0) are the only teams to be undefeated at home on MNF with more than two wins since 2019.

Maybe no team finds better draft value in the second round of the NFL Draft than Green Bay, and it might have found another jewel last spring when it took Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper at No. 45 overall. He returned from a three-game injury absence in the team’s 30-13 win in Seattle on Sunday night in Week 15 and dominated with five tackles, two tackles for loss, two passes defensed, a sack and an interception. Cooper became is the first rookie linebacker to record multiple tackles for loss and passes defensed since 2016 and earned his second NFC Defensive Player of the Week award. He’s the first Packers rookie to ever win that twice and the fifth player to do so after Nick Bosa (2019), Brian Cushing (2009), Kamren Kinchens (2024) and Shaquille Leonard (2018).

That victory last week over Seattle got the Packers to double-digit victories for a 33rd all-time season, passing Dallas for the most 10-plus win campaigns in league history. It was also Green Bay’s fourth straight game scoring at least 30 points, the team’s longest run since 2021. Jordan Love has fixed his interception problems. He had at least one pick in his first eight games of the season but hasn’t thrown one in the past four. Love is +100 to throw one on Monday. He is 0-2 as a starter on MNF. Double-digit favorites are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS in their past five Monday games.

Many were puzzled when the Packers signed former NFL rushing champion Josh Jacobs to a big free-agent deal this offseason, which is a little unusual for the franchise, but it has paid off. Jacobs is among the league leaders in rushing yards (1,147) and rushing TDs (12). He has five consecutive games with at least one rushing score, tied for the third-longest in team history since 1970. To no shock, Jacobs is this game’s -265 anytime TD favorite. 

Green Bay’s average of 144.4 rushing yards per game would be its most in a season since 2003. The Packers were 29th in red zone touchdowns at 47.1% through Week 9. In large part thanks to Jacobs, they were 14th (56.9%) entering Week 16 because they have scored touchdowns on 70.8% of their drives over the past four games.  

Major kudos in my mind to Saints interim coach Darren Rizzi for his decision to go for a 2-point PAT with no time on the clock in Week 15 against visiting Washington. New Orleans had rallied from a 20-7 deficit in the fourth to pull within 20-19 on a Spencer Rattler TD pass to Foster Moreau as time expired. With the season essentially lost, Rizzi decided he might as well try for the win but the PAT failed. Rizzi’s two losses have both been in one-possession games in which his team had a shot to win at the end. Under Allen, the Saints’ seven losses were by an average of 12 points.

With Derek Carr out injured, Jake Haener started vs. the Commanders but was brutal and was benched at the half for the fourth-round rookie Rattler, who was 10-for-21 for 135 yards and that TD in the second half and will now be rewarded with his fourth start of the year Monday. The Saints lost his first three all by 18 points, obviously failing to cover in all three. Rattler is set at over/under 174.5 passing yards (which is really low) and is -205 for a pick (which is really high).  

Not having injured star tailback Alvin Kamara on Monday certainly won’t help Rattler’s cause. Kamara last week ended a seven-game TD drought and became the fourth player in league history to reach 50 career rushing TDs and 25 receiving TDs. This will be his first missed game of the year, which should put second-year back Kendre Miller in the featured role. Miller actually led New Orleans with nine carries for 46 yards against Washington and is set at O/U 71.5 rushing and receiving yards Monday. New Orleans also last week signed former Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the practice squad.

The Saints tallied a season-high eight sacks against the Commanders, their most in a game since November 2020. Cam Jordan had two of those sacks for his 28th career multi-sack game to pass Hall of Fame linebacker Rickey Jackson for the most in franchise history. Jordan, a potential future HOFer himself, also became the 23rd NFL player with at least 120 career sacks. The Saints are set at O/U 2.0 sacks tonight with the Under -150. 

New Orleans is looking to avoid its worst 15-game start to a season since 2005 (3-12). The Saints are 1-4 in their past five MNF games and have dropped four straight (0-4 ATS) in primetime. Their 3-13-1 ATS primetime mark this decade is the NFL’s worst.