Cowboys vs. Buccaneers where to watch: TV, kickoff time, NFL live stream, spread, odds, ‘SNF’ prediction

FRISCO, Texas — The 2024 NFL regular season has three more weeks to go, but the Week 16 edition of “Sunday Night Football” between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) and the Dallas Cowboys (6-8) serves as an unofficial playoff game.

The visiting Buccaneers lead the NFC South division by one game over the Atlanta Falcons (7-7), but since the Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker, just one loss could put Tampa Bay on the outside looking in when it comes to the NFC playoff bracket. 

Dallas enters Week 16 mathematically alive with a 0.1% chance to make the postseason, according to CBS’ SportsLine simulation model. The Cowboys need to win their final three games, and they need to receive help. There’s a chance the Cowboys are eliminated prior to kickoff if the Washington Commanders (9-5) win their Sunday afternoon home game against the Philadelphia Eagles (12-2). 

“This is playoff football,” Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said Friday on a conference call. “They’re playing at that level, and they have put themselves in a better position than we are in. That’s the way we’re viewing it, and we’re viewing it as a must-win game. … This [the Tampa Bay Buccaneers] is an excellent, excellent football team.”

Can the Buccaneers, powered by their top-five offense, bury the Cowboys 2024 playoff hopes at AT&T Stadium Sunday night? Or will the Cowboys potentially play themselves into another week of hope? Let’s take a closer look and pick a winner. 

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys where to watch

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Channel: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)  
Follow: CBS Sports App   
Sports betting odds: Buccaneers -4, O/U 48.5

When the Buccaneers have the ball

Tampa Bay’s offense is one of the best and most balanced in the entire league. They’re the No. 4 scoring offense (28.8 points per game), No. 4 total offense (388.4 total yards per game), No. 4 rushing offense (144.4 rushing yards per game) and No. 4 passing offense (244.0) in the entire NFL. 

At the controls of it all is Pro Bowl quarterback Baker Mayfield. He’s playing like the former first overall draft pick that he is, ranking as a top-five NFL quarterback in nearly every passing metric. Just a week ago, he threw four touchdowns in the Buccaneers’ dominant 40-17 road win at the Los Angeles Chargers, who now have the No. 3 scoring defense (18.3 points per game) in the entire league. That’s why some in Dallas see parallels between his play right now and future Hall of Famer Drew Brees. 

“I just watched him from afar. I think the competitor is the first thing that jumps out. Actually, the way he plays the game reminds me a lot of an undersized guy, Drew Brees,” Cowboys offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said on Monday. “Pocket passer. Able to make all the throws. Off script plays. He’s obviously got a lot of weapons down there in Tampa Bay, but yeah, I would never bet against that guy.”

Both of Mayfield’s running back are also en fuego: Rachaad White has scored a touchdown in seven of the last eight games, and he’s racked up 190 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in just the last two weeks. Rookie Bucky Irving has totaled at least 110 yards from scrimmage in three of the last four games. Plus, Mayfield still has his Ol’ Reliable in five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans. 

“Yeah, those perimeter players, man, Mike [Evans], those running backs, you know, [Rachaad] White [and Bucky Irving],” Cowboys three-time All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons said Thursday when asked about the biggest challenge that comes with playing the Buccaneers. “I get they’re down [wide receiver Chris] Godwin, but they still got a lot of juice in the tank. And Baker [Mayfield], you don’t know what Baker you’re gonna get. You know, Baker’s been hooping this year, so he definitely got that, you know, X factor since college. Like it could be the Baker that wipes you off [the map] by 30, and so he’s definitely a great challenge. I’m excited for the matchup. This is my first time playing him, and I know he’s always juiced up, so it’s going to be a great match.”

Parsons vs. Mayfield certainly is a pull out your popcorn type of showdown. Since Parsons’ Week 10 return from the high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 4 at the New York Giants that sidelined him for four games, he’s roared back as the NFL’s best pass rusher. He leads the NFL in sacks (7.5), quarterback pressures (39) and quarterback pressure rate (19.5%, minimum 150 pass-rush snaps).

“Man, for me it’s just being resilient and proving people wrong,” Parsons said of his post-injury production. “I carry that chip on me because I still feel like I’m still trying to prove myself in this league. and I feel like I’ll never lose that chip. Like I’m hungry for so much more than just being back.”   

* Minimum 150 pass rush snaps

As a result, the Cowboys have been a top-five group in third-down conversion rate (32.4%), takeaways (13), sacks (24) and sack rate (10.8%) since Parsons’ return, but the shift isn’t all about Parsons. The rest of the Dallas defense finally feels fully acclimated to new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s scheme after the last three seasons of operating in Dan Quinn’s playbook before he departed to be the head coach of the Washington Commanders. 

“Overall, it’s more so as a unit we’re more locked in. More comfortability in the scheme,” Cowboys defensive lineman Chauncey Golston said Wednesday. … “Previously, we were playing on one [Dan Quinn’s] defense for three years, so it’s a big adjustment. When you’re so used to playing one way, and then you’re asked to play another way after become accustomed to playing that [one] way, it’s different and sometimes you rebel. 

“It’s a big muscle memory thing. You’re so used to ‘OK, in this defense I played this way. I’m able to play more outside, and now I have to play more inside.’ Without you even thinking it, you’re on the outside when you’re supposed to be on the inside. … We’d be in meeting rooms, and we’d be talking like ‘oh well I saw it this way.’ Then the coach had to be like ‘yeah, we don’t do it that way though.’ You’re like ‘oh yeah, oh yeah I forgot.'”

When the Cowboys have the ball

There’s only been one running back more productive than Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle since Week 11, when McCarthy named the veteran, undrafted running back his “lead back.” That would be 2024 NFL season rushing leader and Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley’s 697 rushing yards since Week 11 lead the league, but Dowdle is right behind with 506 yards rushing in that span. He’s run for career-high totals in rushing yards in each of the last three weeks with 112 yards on 22 carries in Week 13 vs. the New York Giants, 131 yards on 18 carries in Week 14 vs. the Cincinnati Bengals and 149 yards on 25 carries in Week 15 at the Carolina Panthers. 

The Buccaneers are solid unit when it comes to defending the run, allowing the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game (109.2) in the league this season, but they’re vulnerable when teams decide to air it out. Tampa Bay is allowing the third-most passing yards per game (247.7) in the entire NFL this season. With Cooper Rush filling in at quarterback for an injured Dak Prescott, the Cowboys’ passing game has been inconsistent overall, but All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb could have another big outing on Sunday. Lamb remains in the running for his second All-Pro selection in a row with both the third-most catches (94) and receiving yards (1,089) in the entire NFL in 2024. 

Prediction  

The only way the Cowboys win this game is if Parsons and their pass rush take over and mucks the game for Mayfield and Co. for all four quarters. Even the slightest misstep could result in the Buccaneers lighting up the scoreboard. In today’s NFL, it’s incredibly difficult to win when there’s such a massive gap between two teams at the quarterback position like there is between Mayfield and Rush. Tampa Bay wins by multiple scores even though Parsons and Co. get home for a few sacks. 

Pick: Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 20

Bonus: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein, who is on a 28-11 roll on Cowboys picks, has released his best bets for the Week 16 Buccaneers vs. Cowboys “Sunday Night Football” matchup. Hartstein is leaning Over on the total, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at SportsLine.