NFL

NFL picks for Broncos-Chargers on Thursday night, plus MVP race appears to be down to these two quarterbacks

by
SaC Bot
December 19, 2024

USATSI

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

On the first day of Christmas, the NFL gave to me, Jusin Herbert trying to throw for 340. Nope, it’s not Christmas tonight, but it’s going to feel like it if you’re an NFL fan and that’s because tonight’s game between the Broncos and Chargers will be kicking off a stretch where there will be at least one NFL game airing in nine of the next 12 days.

Between now and Dec. 30, the only days that WON’T have an NFL game are Dec. 20, Dec. 24, Dec. 27, so I’d go ahead and plan to get your Christmas shopping done on those first two days and then plan to return anything that needs to be returned on Dec. 27.

Tonight’s game is going to have huge playoff implications and we’ll be breaking down everything in today’s newsletter. Plus, we’ll also take a look at the MVP race and we’ll be going over the details of all the Pro Bowl games that the NFL announced this week.

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Broncos at Chargers showdown

This is a huge game for both teams, but especially for Denver (9-5). If the Broncos win tonight, they can clinch their first playoff berth in nine years. The Broncos haven’t been to the playoffs since 2015, which is tied with the Panthers for the second-longest active drought in the NFL (The Jets have the longest).

This is obviously also a big game for the Chargers, but if they lose, their path to the postseason is much more manageable. They close the season with the Patriots and Raiders and if they beat both of those teams, they’ll make the playoffs even if they lose tonight. As for the Broncos, they close the season with the Bengals and Chiefs, so if they lose tonight, the wild-card race in the AFC would definitely start to heat up. The Bengals, Dolphins and Colts will all be watching this game closely.

With that in mind, here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident about a possible win:

Why the Broncos can win: Bo Nix is having a great rookie year, but it’s the defense that’s been carrying this team and they’ve gone that by forcing a lot of turnovers. The Broncos have forced 23 turnovers this year, which is the sixth-most in the NFL. The Broncos are 9-1 when they force at least one turnover, but 0-4 when they don’t. When the defense is forcing the other team to make mistakes, that’s when Denver shines. If the defense can force Justin Herbert into an interception or two, or even force a fumble, then the Broncos will be in good shape. They also need to make sure Herbert doesn’t go off, because the Broncos are just 2-3 this year when the opposing QB throws for 220 yards or more.
Why the Chargers can win: The Chargers have struggled to run the ball over the past two weeks with an average of just 80.5 yards per game, but if they can get their rushing attack going, there’s a good chance they’ll be able to win. The Broncos are 1-4 this season when they surrender 120 yards or more on the ground, but 8-1 when they hold their opponent under 120. To add to that, the Chargers have been at their best when they’re able to run the ball: They’re 6-0 when topping the 100-yard mark. The Chargers have the better QB, but he’s not going to be able to win this by himself against a strong Broncos defense, so L.A. really needs to figure out how to get the ground game going.

The Chargers won their first meeting with the 49ers, 23-16, in a game where Los Angeles jumped out to a 23-0 lead before holding on for dear life.

You can get a full preview of the game from Cody Benjamin by clicking here.

If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.

ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Bo Nix OVER 1.5 TD passes (+135 at BetMGM): The Broncos QB has thrown at least two TD passes in four of his past five games and if I’m getting a plus number on these odds, then it feels like a pretty solid value. Nix also threw two touchdowns against the Chargers in their first meeting back in Week 6. Including that game, he’s thrown at least two TD passes in seven of 10 games since then.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Cameron Dicker OVER 7.5 points (-120 at BetMGM): If you think the Chargers are going to win, then you should definitely make this bet, because Dicker has gone over 7.5 points in seven of their eight wins this year. That includes a game back in Week 6 when he scored 11 against Broncos. Jim Harbaugh loves using his Dicker, who is tied for the sixth most field goal attempts in the NFL this year, and I won’t be surprised if he gets a lot of use tonight.

And in case you’re wondering, my props are now 37-29 on the season (19-12 on kicker props and 18-17 on all other props).

We also have a full Broncos-Chargers betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.

And finally, here are our picks for the game.

PICKS FOR ‘TNF’

Cody’s pick: Broncos 23-21 over Chargers
Prisco’s pick: Chargers 24-17 over Broncos
My pick: Chargers 20-17 over Broncos

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.

2. MVP Watch: Josh Allen has a slight edge over Lamar Jackson heading into Week 16

From now until the end of the season, we’ll be taking a weekly look at the MVP race. To give you an idea of how the MVP voting might turn out this year, we’re having 17 of our NFL writers here at CBS Sports turn in a ballot each week.

The 50 media members who actually vote on the award will each get to name up to five players on their ballot, so that’s exactly how we handled the voting here.

Here’s a look at our top five heading into Week 16, along with each player’s point total. (A player got five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.)

1. Bills QB Josh Allen (81 points)
2. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (68 points)
3. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (43 points)
T-4. Lions QB Jared Goff (24 points)
T-4. Bengals QB Joe Burrow (24 points)

The most interesting development here is the emergence of Lamar Jackson. The last time we did a poll came two weeks ago and Lamar only got one first-place vote, which came from me. This time around, he got four first-place votes, so he’s slowly gaining on Allen. My personal take on Lamar hasn’t changed: He’s been better than Allen in every important QB metric you can think of and if Justin Tucker wasn’t having the worst season of his career, I think Jackson would actually be the front-runner right now (Tucker has cost the Ravens at least three games and if that didn’t happen, the Ravens would be 12-2 right now and if that were the case, Lamar would probably be getting a lot more love in the MVP race).

Allen has put up some super human numbers over the past two weeks, but over the entire season, he still has fewer passing yards, fewer passing touchdowns and fewer rushing yards than Jackson. Allen also has a lower passer rating, a lower completion percentage and has thrown more interceptions.

If the Ravens end up winning Saturday against the Steelers and eventually take the AFC North, I think that will make things extremely tight at the end of the year. And let’s not forget about Saquon Barkely. He still has an outside shot at 2,000 yards and if he hits that number, he’ll certainly get a few votes.

Overall, a total of 13 players received at least one MVP vote. If you want to see a full list of every player who got a vote, then be sure to click here.

3. NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16: Five teams can secure a postseason spot

There are 14 playoff spots in the NFL and as we get ready to head into Week 16, exactly half of them have been clinched so far with seven teams having punched their ticket into the postseason. In the AFC, all seven spots could be clinched by the end the week, which is notable because in the Super Bowl era, no conference has ever had every spot clinched with two weeks to play and that might happen if the Ravens, Broncos and Chargers all clinch a spot before we get to Week 17.

There are multiple playoff-clinching scenarios this week, but we’re just going to take a look at the simplest one for each team.

RAVENS (9-5)
Easiest path: The Ravens will clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Steelers on Saturday.

BRONCOS (9-5)
Easiest path: As we mentioned at the top, the Broncos will clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Chargers tonight.

CHARGERS (8-6)
Easiest path: The Chargers can get in this week, but they’ll need some help. Not only will they have to beat the Broncos, but they’d also need the Dolphins to lose to the 49ers AND the Colts to lose to the Titans.

If you’re wondering how the Chargers, Broncos and Ravens can all clinch this week, which would end the AFC playoff race, here’s what would have to happen: Chargers beat Broncos, Ravens beat Steelers, Browns beat Bengals, Titans beat Colts and 49ers beat Dolphins. If all six of those things happen, then every AFC playoff spot will be clinched.

In the NFC, there are two spots that can be clinched this week:

PACKERS (10-4)
Easiest path: The Packers will punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win over the Saints on Monday night.

COMMANDERS (9-5)
Easiest path: The Commanders’ easiest path isn’t that easy. First, the Commanders need to beat the Eagles and if that happens, they also need the Giants to beat the Falcons AND the Vikings to beat the Seahawks. Call me crazy, but I don’t think the Commanders are clinching a spot this week.

In other clinching news, the Steelers can clinch the AFC North with a win over the Ravens while the Eagles can clinch the NFC East with a win over the Commanders.

If you want to check out all 16 clinching scenarios that are in play during Week 16, you can do that here.

The Falcons made an unprecedented decision this week when they decided to bench Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr. It was an unprecedented decision because no team in the Super Bowl era has ever let a rookie first-rounder make his first career start in Week 16 or later while the team was still in playoff contention. It’s happened plenty of times in NFL history where a rookie got his first start because a team fell OUT of playoff contention, but it never happens the other way around.

Cousins, Penix and Falcons coach Raheem Morris all spoke with the media on Wednesday and here’s what they had to say:

Cousins understands why he got benched. The Falcons quarterback, who’s thrown nine interceptions in his past five games, knows that he wasn’t playing at a high enough level. “It’s pro football, and there’s a standard that I have for myself, that the team has for me, that unfortunately, I wasn’t playing up to that standard consistently enough,” Cousins said, via ESPN.com. “And so, it is what it is, and you roll with it and now you still get ready.”
Cousins called Penix. After learning that he was going to be benched, Cousins made sure to call the rookie quarterback because he didn’t want the elephant in the room to make things awkward. “I like to shoot elephants in the room, so I just wanted to shoot one,” Cousins said.
Penix was at Costco when he found out he would be starting. The Falcons rookie was about to purchase one of those $1.50 hot dogs on Tuesday night when his phone rang and that’s when he found out he would be starting this week. The rookie QB admitted that he’ll be nervous when he takes the field on Sunday to face the Giants, “I ain’t going to lie, I’m going to be nervous running out of that tunnel,” Penix said, via the team’s official website. “But whenever I get on the field, it’s a whole different mentality, a flipped switch. I’m ready to go.”
Why the Falcons made the decision. Raheem Morris said the decision came down to one thing: The Falcons neded to get better play at quarterback. “We had been searching, been digging as much as we can dig to make things work and try to get things going,” Morris said, via the team’s website. “But (Tuesday) night, we came to the decision to make the move. We wanted to play better at quarterback and we felt like we got a chance to play a little bit better and if we can go out there and play better at quarterback who knows what could happen.”
One interesting comment from Morris. The Falcons coach didn’t promise that Penix would remain the starter. “I don’t think anything is ever permanent in the National Football League, but right now Michael Penix is our quarterback,” Morris said. I disagree Raheem. This is permanent, at least for the rest of the this season. Even if Penix throws four interceptions on Sunday, it’s almost impossible to see them turning back to Cousins this year or ever again. Of course, Penix could get injured, which would then open the door for Cousins to return to the starting spot.

You can read more about Morris’ comments on the situation here.

5. Pro Bowl Games details: NFL reveals skills competitions for 2025

For the third straight year, and likely for the rest of time, the NFL won’t be holding an actual game for the Pro Bowl. Instead, the league will be pitting the AFC and NFC against each other in a series of skills competitions where points will be awarded and the team with the most points will be deemed the winner of the Pro Bowl Games.

If you’re wondering what these events will look like, here’s a look at five of the nine competitions along with a description of each event from he NFL:

Helmet harmony (NEW): “A game show to test player knowledge of their teammates, with every correct answer worth one point. The team with the most correct answers wins.”
Dodgeball: “A three-round tournament of classic dodgeball featuring six teams of five players. Teams will be a mix of AFC offensive, defensive and special teams players competing against a mix of NFC offensive, defensive and special teams players.”
Punt perfect (NEW): “Two players (one punter, one non-punter) from each conference punt from the 35-yard line, attempting to place as many punts as possible into a set of six buckets in the end zone. Each bucket is worth one point, with every fifth punt worth three points. The two players with the highest combined score will be the winners.”
Great football race: “Six players from each conference will face off in a relay race consisting of five different challenges, culminating with a sled push. The team to cross the finish line first wins.”
Tug-of-War: ” A five-on-five demonstration of teamwork, strength and strategy, and positioned above a foam pit, players are challenged to pull backwards on the rope, attempting to move the opposing team in their direction. The competition will be the best of three, and the winner who pulls the opposing team into the foam pit twice wins.”

All the events will be going down in Orlando and each competition will be televised. The Pro Bowl Games will be a two-day TV event with competitions airing on Jan. 30 and Feb. 2 on the ABC/ESPN family of networks. The Pro Bowl will culminate with a flag football game on Feb. 2.

If you don’t hear from me in the coming days, it’s because I’ll be too busy begging the NFL to let me participate in the “Punt Perfect” competition.

The NFL actually has nine Pro Bowl events planned this year and you can check them all out here.

6. Extra points: Patrick Mahomes has been practicing this week

The NFL keeps churning out news and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happens, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Chiefs QB is full participant in practice. We haven’t really offered a Patrick Mahomes (ankle) update over the past 48 hours, because there hasn’t really been anything to update. Mahomes was a full participant in practice on both Tuesday and Wednesday, so that’s definitely a good thing for the Chiefs. However, both practice sessions were light workouts where the Chiefs didn’t wear pads. With the practice expected to be more intense today, we should get a better idea of where Mahomes truly is with his ankle. If he’s once again a full participant, that bodes well for his chances of playing on Saturday against Houston. You can read the latest on Mahomes here.
Marquise Brown set to make Chiefs debut. Hollywood Brown hasn’t played in a single game yet this year due to a shoulder injury, but that’s expected to change on Saturday. Brown has been practicing this week, and according to ESPN, he’s expected to be activated for Saturday’s game against Houston. Brown, who spent 2022 and 2023 in Arizona, injured his shoulder during his first preseason with the Chiefs and hasn’t played since.
NFL unveils Christmas patches. The four teams playing on Christmas this year will all be wearing a special patch for the holiday. The NFL revealed the patches this week and you can check them out here. The Ravens, Steelers, Texans and Chiefs will wear them on Saturday in Week 16 and then against on Wednesday, Dec. 25 to kick off Week 17.
Falcons forced to make kicking change. Not only will the Falcons be making a QB change this week, but they’ll also be making a change at kicker. Younghoe Koo has been placed on injured reserve and the Falcons have signed Riley Patterson to take his place. You can get the full details on the move here.
Jets owner apparently used Madden ratings to nix a trade. According to a story in The Athletic, the Jets were about to pull off a trade with Denver for Jerry Jeudy, but owner Woody Johnson nixed the trade because he decided Jeudy wasn’t worth the price due to his MADDEN RATING. That’s one of several tidbits about Johnson in a story that you can read from The Athletic here.
Herschel Walker nominated to be U.S. ambassador to Bahamas. We don’t usually cover politics in the newsletter, but this definitely seems worth mentioning: The former NFL star has been nominated to serve as the ambassador to the Bahamas. Before he can take the job, Walker’s nomination will have to be approved by the Senate early next year. If any of you are ever president, I will gladly take the job if you want to nominate me as the ambassador to any Caribbean country.