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Kirk Cousins to follow in Russell Wilson’s footsteps? Factors that could affect successful path for demoted QB

Back in 2022 — what feels like lifetimes ago in the NFL — the Denver Broncos gave up a boatload of assets for Russell Wilson, a move that signaled two franchises making landscape-altering moves. Denver, which had wandered the quarterback wilderness since Peyton Manning’s retirement, was getting one of the most decorated quarterbacks of the era, a Super Bowl winner and perennial Pro Bowler.

The Seattle Seahawks, meanwhile, were willing to part ways with their longtime superstar as the partnership had run its course. Seattle had just finished its first losing season since 2011 — the year before Wilson arrived — and the Legion of Boom days were long gone. The Seahawks needed replenishments on both sides of the ball.

Denver thought it was just a quarterback away from contending and gave Wilson a five-year, $245 million extension days before the season began, without Wilson having played a single snap for the franchise. It kicked off a disastrous two-season sequence. Wilson posted several career worsts — including a 4-11 record — and Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett didn’t even make it through the season, a 51-14 Christmas Day demolition at the hands of the Cardinals the straw that broke the camel’s back.

The Broncos tried to make amends by trading yet another first-round pick for Sean Payton, the mastermind behind Drew Brees’ Saints. But it was always a curious-at-best fit — Payton’s offense was exacting, Wilson’s play style free-wheeling — and Wilson’s second Mile High season somehow ended arguably worse than his first. Wilson alleged the Broncos threatened to bench him if he didn’t change his hefty contract midseason, and the NFLPA even said the team “mistreated” Wilson, who was eventually benched as a “football decision,” in GM George Paton’s words.

Long story short, it’s easy to overlook how poorly things ended considering Payton’s Broncos — now with rookie quarterback Bo Nix — are almost certainly postseason bound and Wilson’s Steelers have already qualified. Yet it was, unequivocally, one of the worst team/coach/quarterback situations in recent memory, especially considering the costs of acquiring and extending Wilson.

Two offseasons after the Wilson trade, the Atlanta Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal. Like Denver, Atlanta had been swinging and missing on quarterbacks ever since its franchise signal-caller (Matt Ryan) left town, and, like Denver, Atlanta thought a proven quarterback was the difference between a mediocre team and a consistent playoff contender. Wilson was 33 at the time of his trade from Seattle, Cousins 35 when he left Minnesota. Both quarterbacks had led their previous teams to some highs — Wilson’s Super Bowl was far higher than Cousins ever reached, but Cousins made two Pro Bowls and led two playoff-bound teams in Minnesota — but both franchises were ready to begin new chapters.

There was one big, big difference: Cousins was coming off a torn Achilles, a relatively rare injury for a quarterback (though Aaron Rodgers was coincidentally also returning from one). Wilson had been remarkably durable, and even when he did miss time due to injury, it was more of the nagging sort. As for Cousins, Achilles tendon ruptures remain among the most difficult injuries to overcome in sports.

After a solid enough start in Atlanta — even as Cousins admitted he wasn’t 100% — the wheels fell off. Since Week 10, Cousins has thrown one touchdown and nine interceptions. Using expected points added per dropback, only Anthony Richardson and Drew Lock have been worse. Things came to a head in Week 15, when Atlanta squeaked by lowly Las Vegas 15-9.

The Falcons ran the ball 37 times while throwing just 17 passes and ran the ball on 23 of 24 first-down snaps, a stunningly conservative game plan. It worked … if your definition of “worked” is “won.” But a Falcons team in the playoff mix needed to defend multiple Hail Mary attempts to beat a team that has lost 10 straight and whose quarterback wasn’t even on the team until late October.

Cousins’ numbers — season wide — are stunning:

  • Cousins is throwing 96% of his passes this season from the pocket. The only higher rates on record — since 2017 — belong to Tom Brady and Philip Rivers.
  • Cousins is under center on just 22% of his dropbacks. He had never been under 40% prior.
  • Conversely, Cousins has run an NFL-high 118 plays out of the Pistol formation; he ran just seven such plays in six years with the Vikings.
  • Cousins has zero play-action passing touchdowns. He had an NFL-high 69 with the Vikings.
  • Cousins has three scrambles on 480 dropbacks. For reference, that scramble-per-dropback rate is lower than Eli Manning in his last full season, Peyton Manning in his first season back from neck surgery and 43-year-old Tom Brady in 2020.

Basically, Cousins is a statue who can’t drive the ball downfield. He was a sitting duck who quickly turned into a lame duck. The Falcons, in fact, decided to bench him for rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. this week. Penix’s selection in April was one of the more controversial and confusing picks in recent memory; fast forward a few months, and it could prove among the most prescient.

A big problem: Cousins is still due a significant amount of money, as Wilson was also owed a heap. This isn’t the prettiest of likely exits, and neither was Wilson’s. There are completely reasonable questions about whether Cousins is done, just as there were surrounding Wilson. But can Cousins find a landing spot that pushes back against that narrative, as Wilson did with Pittsburgh? Here are some factors:

1. Cousins’ health

It is clear Cousins is nowhere near what he was before the Achilles injury. There are the numbers above, and there are plenty of actual plays featuring weakly thrown passes with awful results. Say what you will about Cousins, from his iffy prime-time record to his supposed lack of clutch gene (disproven) to his play style. He has always been willing to stand in and let it rip while taking a big hit. Pre-injury, he could threaten all areas of the field off of play-action, too, a massive advantage for any play-caller. We can think of him as a poor man’s version of Matthew Stafford — not quite with the arm talent, anticipation or trick shot acumen, but a player of a similar style. Cousins did some of his best work under Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell, a former Sean McVay disciple.

Cousins, plainly, has not shown he is that version anymore. Atlanta hasn’t been confident enough to let him try, really. If Cousins didn’t feel 100% in mid-September, has he ever been 100% this season? It’s fair to wonder if this is Cousins’ biggest obstacle to finding a happy home following this disappointment.

Remember, players are human beings, and different humans respond differently to injuries, just as some NFL players end up being durable and others plagued by injuries. Human anatomy differs. Cousins, who was very durable prior to the Achilles tear, might simply have not healed as he had hoped. Does another offseason change that? Can he prove he’s a physically better version of himself next year? Players often perform better two years removed from a major injury rather than one, but at age 36, Cousins is also racing Father Time.

2. The right fit

NFL teams are always looking for quarterbacks: franchise quarterbacks, bridge quarterbacks, quarterbacks to compete for a starting role, backup quarterbacks, mentor quarterbacks, etc. That will be no different this offseason, when several teams are likely to have quarterback holes to fill. As my colleague Cody Benjamin mentioned in potential landing spots for Cousins, the Seahawks, Titans, Saints, Colts and Browns could fit the bill. It’s too early to tell, but it’s not to early to guesstimate.

Ideally, Cousins lands in a system that has a strong supporting cast (coaching included), a well-rounded run game and a strong defense. Wilson hasn’t lit the world on fire this season by any stretch. In fact, he and Cousins ranked 16th and 17th, respectively, in expected points added per dropback, and Cousins has a higher success rate. But the Steelers have leaned into Wilson’s strengths (deep perimeter throws) and have a capable run game and excellent defense, all of which have taken significant pressure off Wilson.

Last offseason, the Vikings signed Sam Darnold, the Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett, the Raiders signed Gardner Minshew, and the Steelers signed Wilson and traded for Justin Fields. All except Wilson started Week 1, and Wilson took over for Fields once healthy.

This is probably the aspect in which Cousins and Wilson are most alike, which leads us to …

3. The money

Wilson is technically playing on a minimum $1.21 million contract for the Steelers this season. The Broncos are paying for the remaining $37.79 million he is due on his contract for the season. That is what happens when you swing big and strike out — you have to pay to get rid of your problems. There was clearly no reconciling the Wilson-Payton relationship, and the Broncos were willing to just eat considerable financial losses to clean house personnel-wise.

Cousins is owed $27.5 million next season. Considering the Falcons have a cheap rookie quarterback like the Broncos do, could the Falcons release Cousins and pay him a lot of money to not play for them, much like the Broncos did? As Denver is proving, if the rookie quarterback hits early and there are enough pieces elsewhere (Atlanta does not have similar pieces on the defensive side, to be fair), it can work. Again, though, this is the price of swinging and missing big; Atlanta will have to alter the win-now timeline it gave itself when it signed Cousins.

If Cousins is willing to play on a minimum contract and have some competition like Wilson was, there’s little reason for a quarterback-needy team to not take a chance on him. Whether that materializes is a big question, and the two previous points will weigh heavily.

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Author: Zachary Pereles
December 18, 2024 | 6:11 pm

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