They clinched a playoff spot Sunday, but you wouldn’t have known that based off what was said after the Steelers clinched their 12th postseason appearance in Mike Tomlin’s 18 seasons as head coach.
“That’s cool,” cornerback Joey Porter Jr. told the Tribune-Review, “but we lost.”
Pittsburgh’s 27-13 loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia put a temporary damper on what the Steelers have accomplished. Along with clinching a spot in the AFC playoffs, Pittsburgh (10-4) is a game ahead of Baltimore (9-5) with three games left in the regular season. Speaking of the Ravens, the Steelers will face their longtime division rival Saturday in a game that could decide which team wins the division.
Following Pittsburgh’s Week 12 loss to Cleveland, we predicted the outcomes for the Steelers’ final six regular season games. Through three games, we’re sitting at 3-0 after the Steelers defeated the Bengals and Browns before falling in Philadelphia. We predicted a Steelers loss this weekend and wins over the Chiefs and Bengals to close out the season. That would give Pittsburgh a 12-5 record as well as the AFC North division title.
That’s right, the Steelers can clinch the North even with a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. There are two scenarios where the Steelers can win the division:
- Defeat the Ravens on Saturday
- Defeat the Chiefs and Bengals in Weeks 16-17
SportsLine’s model is currently giving the Steelers a 72.4% chance to win the division over Baltimore, which has a 26.6% shot at taking the North. Those numbers will change, though, if the Ravens beat the Steelers on Sunday.
If the Steelers and Ravens finish with identical records, Pittsburgh would win the tiebreaker based on conference record. Pittsburgh is currently 7-2 against AFC foes as two of its losses were against NFC teams (the Cowboys and Eagles). The Ravens are 5-4 versus the AFC that includes their Week 11 loss in Pittsburgh.
Obviously, a win Saturday would be the Steelers’ preferred outcome. In doing so, the Steelers would secure at least one home playoff game while Baltimore would be left scrambling to grab one of the AFC’s three wild-card spots. This would also give Pittsburgh flexibility in terms of possibly resting players during the season’s final two weeks.
So, how do we see Pittsburgh’s final three games playing out? Things haven’t really changed since we made our predictions three weeks ago, except for the fact that the Chiefs may be without Patrick Mahomes when the Chiefs travel to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. The Steelers also face a Bengals team in Week 18 that may still have a shot at making the playoffs. Cincinnati has remained alive in the wild-card race after winning its past two games on the strength of Joe Burrow and wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
While Mahomes’ possible absence helps, the Bengals’ resurgence makes Saturday’s game even more important. The Bengals defense still isn’t very good, but the unit is getting better play as of late from its young defensive backs that includes rookie fifth-round pick Josh Newton, who recorded his first career interception in Cincinnati’s Week 15 win over the Titans.
The Steelers’ remaining three opponents have a combined record of 26-14 (a record that is buoyed by the Chiefs’ 13-1 mark). The Ravens’ final three foes (Pittsburgh, at Houston and Cleveland) are a combined 22-20. Baltimore clearly has the easier road during the season’s final weeks.
While none of their remaining three games are easy, each one is winnable for the Steelers, who have already beaten the Ravens and Bengals this year. But as alluded to earlier, the Steelers would do themselves a huge favor if they can defeat Baltimore on Saturday.
Pittsburgh has its work cut out for it, though. While the Steelers were literally throwing punches with the NFC’s hottest team this past Sunday, the Ravens were coasting to a win over the listless Giants. Baltimore’s 35-14 win was was so easy that Lamar Jackson actually had time to adjust his britches during a long run that was part of his five-touchdown performance. Coming off their Week 14 bye, the Ravens look fresh and ready for the stretch run.
As good as Jackson has been as a two-time league MVP, though, he’s just 1-4 lifetime against the Steelers that includes Baltimore’s 19-18 loss to Pittsburgh back in Week 11. Jackson hasn’t beaten Pittsburgh since 2019.
What’s the secret to Pittsburgh’s success against Jackson?
“For the back end, just plaster your guy,” Steelers cornerback Beanie Bishop Jr. told CBS Sports following Pittsburgh’s most recent win over Baltimore. “It’s kind of like playing street ball. Guys are moving around trying to get open, not really having too many routes, obviously, because he’s scrambling. For the rush guys, keep him in front of you, and inside you’re going to have help and other guys coming.”
Health is also going to play a significant factor in Saturday’s game. Tomlin provided a positive update Monday when he said that T.J. Watt, George Pickens, safety DeShon Elliott, defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi and cornerback Donte Jackson all have a chance to face Baltimore. Pickens, Elliott and Ogunjobi were inactive in Philadelphia, while Watt and Jackson suffered injuries during the game.
The Steelers will need to do a better job running ball if they’re going to have a chance to win Saturday and beyond. Pittsburgh is 10th in the league in rushing but is just 30th in the league in yards-per-carry average. But history suggests that the Steelers’ running game will improve down the stretch.
Najee Harris, the Steelers’ former first-round pick, has routinely played some of his best ball during the final weeks of the season. As a rookie, he ran for a career-high 188 yards in a must-win game over Cleveland in what was also Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game. A year later, Harris ran for 111 yards and also caught the game-winning score in a Week 17 win over Baltimore that kept Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes alive. Last year, Harris ran for 312 yards and four touchdowns in Pittsburgh’s final three games. The Steelers won each game and captured the AFC’s final playoff spot.
It’s fathomable to think that Harris will have another winning performance Saturday in Baltimore. If he does, that will likely result in a win for the Steelers, as well as the franchise’s first division title since 2020.
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Author: Bryan DeArdo
December 17, 2024 | 12:21 pm
