How Dan Campbell’s controversial early onside kick blew up Lions’ comeback attempt vs. Bills

The Detroit Lions reached the NFC championship in 2023 in large part due to head coach Dan Campbell’s aggression, yet they also failed to reach the Super Bowl after some of his unorthodox gambles backfired. Almost a year later, the Lions endured a similar experience on Sunday, briefly sabotaging their own fourth-quarter comeback effort against the Buffalo Bills thanks to Campbell’s bold — and failed — onside kick call.

Down 10 points with 12 minutes to play in the Week 15 contest, Campbell had reason to be skeptical of his own defense, which had struggled to slow Josh Allen and the Bills up to that point. But in today’s NFL, onside kicks have to be declared to the opposing team, meaning Campbell elected to alert the Bills of his intentions, and gift them another potential scoring opportunity, with almost a full quarter still to play. That’s not accounting for the fact onside kicks have had just a 7% recovery rate this season.

Buffalo’s Mack Hollins promptly recovered the Lions’ kick from Jake Bates and raced 38 yards, bringing the ball all the way to the Lions’ 5-yard line. One play later, Ray Davis was in the end zone, and the Bills extended their lead to 45-28, all but sealing their rout of the favorites for the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed.

It was a sequence that exemplified the Dan Campbell experience: The Lions often prevail because they have the talent advantage to justify unceasing aggression from the sidelines, but they also dig themselves into some deeper holes than necessary when the plan doesn’t unfold as intended.

Would the Lions defense have held firm had Campbell simply kicked off as usual following their first fourth-quarter score to pull within 10? Perhaps not. But trying an onside kick with four minutes left is a bit different than trying it with 12 minutes left, especially when Campbell elected against another onside attempt later in the fourth, after pulling within 10 again. The Lions ultimately kept things close in the closing minutes, going back to the onside well in the closing minute after making Sunday’s potential Super Bowl preview a shootout on the scoreboard, but it was still too little, too late.