Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season began with a “Thursday Night Football” slog with the Los Angeles Rams prevailing 12-6 on the road against their heated NFC West rivals, the San Francisco 49ers. That game was both the first in the NFL without a touchdown this season as well as the first in that rivalry with no touchdowns scored, per CBS Sports Research.
Week 15, the start of the Fantasy Football playoffs for many, promises to be much more thrilling. Here are five surprising possibilities in our latest crop of CBS Sports’ NFL bold predictions.
The Detroit Lions are off to their best 13-game start in franchise history with a 12-1 record, and their 11-game winning streak is their longest in team history. That winning streak will end at home on Sunday when Josh Allen and the 10-3 Bills come to town, fresh off a 44-42 road loss at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14.
Yes, the Bills became the first team in NFL history to lose a game with six or more touchdowns and no turnovers committed last week, but they are going to topple the Lions in their Detroit den on Sunday. Why is that? It’s because Allen is going to beat the Detroit Lions’ blitz-heavy defense.
Detroit’s No. 2 scoring defense (18.0 points per game allowed in 2024) leans hard on its blitz. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has blitzed 36.4% of the time this season, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL in 2024, but they have generated the seventh-lowest quarterback pressure rate when blitzing (38%). In order to make up for the loss of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who was the early-season favorite to be the 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award before a season-ending leg injury in Week 6, Glenn has turned up the heat, blitzing 41.1% of the time since Week 7, the highest rate in the entire league in that span. However, they are allowing the lowest passer rating in the NFL (67.7) when blitzing in part because of their seven interceptions on such plays, the second-most in the league behind only the Minnesota Vikings, who have 11. Allen’s 123.8 passer rating vs. the blitz is the fourth-best in the NFL, and his 14 touchdown passes when blitzed are the best in the league.
Allen is currently playing his most efficient football of his career, producing his lowest turnover rate (1.4%) and sack rate (3.2%) of his career. His offensive line has been steady, allowing the 10th-lowest quarterback pressure rate this season (32.2%) as well as the seventh-lowest in the NFL when being blitzed (36.9%). Allen also isn’t afraid to throw it to anybody: he’s thrown a touchdown to 12 different players, including himself, in 2024. The 2024 odds on NFL MVP favorite (-400 per Caesar’s Sportsbook) will play like an MVP on Sunday in Detroit by beating the Lions’ blitz, thus leading the Bills to victory.
Steelers snap 10-game road losing streak at Eagles
The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost 10 consecutive road games against the Philadelphia Eagles with their last such win coming in 1965. That ends on Sunday for a few reasons.
One being Russell Wilson’s efficient play: he’s thrown for 12 touchdowns to just three interceptions this season, which is why the Steelers are 6-1 in his seven starts in 2024. Another is Pittsburgh’s fifth-ranked scoring defense (18.3 points per game allowed). The Steelers’ strength is defending the run as they allow just 91.5 rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. That’s exactly what’s necessary to derail the 2024 rushing yards leader in Eagles running back Saquon Barkley and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Making Hurts throw after stopping the run is the exact recipe to beat this Eagles bunch because he is averaging just 200.2 passing yards per game this season, which ranks 24th among qualified quarterbacks, and that figure would be his fewest in a season since becoming a full-time starting quarterback in 2021. That’s also led to No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown averaging Eagles career lows in catches per game (4.8) and receiving yards per game (83.6) as well as teammate Brandon Graham to speculate on the duo’s friendship amid the passing game struggles. Pittsburgh jumps all over that weakness on Sunday to earn a generational road win against their in-state foe. The Steelers will celebrate in Philadelphia like it’s 1965.
The New England Patriots have won three in a row (2016, 2020 and 2022) against the Arizona Cardinals, and that will continue in 2024 despite the Patriots being 3-10 and the host Cardinals being 6-7 and in a fight for an NFC West crown. This will happen because this game features two quarterbacks whose production is going two completely different directions.
Arizona has lost three in a row after a 6-4 start, and that’s in large part because of Kyler Murray throwing five interceptions — tied for the most in three-game span of his career — to only three touchdowns during the losing streak.
On the flip side, Patriots 2024 third overall pick quarterback Drake Maye is balling out. He is the fifth quarterback to be averaging over 200 passing yards per game (209.3) and over 40 rushing yards per game (41.6) in his first eight starts since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, per CBS Sports Research. The four other members of that club include Robert Griffin III (2012), Deshaun Watson (2017), Jalen Hurts (2020-2021) and fellow draft classmate Jayden Daniels (2024). Maye also threw for career highs in completion percentage (24-for-30, 80%) and passing yards per attempt (7.9) in his last game in Week 13 against the Indianapolis Colts, a narrow 25-24 defeat.
In Week 15, these trends continue as Maye outduels Murray and leads the Patriots to victory.
Chiefs blow out Browns for rare double-digit win
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are gasping and wheezing through the 2024 season, despite what their 12-1 record says. They have the lowest point differential (+56) for a team with a 12-1 record or better in their first 13 games in NFL history, per CBS Sports research, and their 10 wins by one through seven points through 13 games are also the most all time.
Why is that? Patrick Mahomes is both elite and suffering through his worst season in terms of passing yards per attempt (6.9) and passing yards per game (245.3). However, he and the Chiefs will surprisingly win a game easily against the 3-10 Cleveland Browns. Yes, this is a bold prediction considering Kansas City barely beat the 3-10 Carolina Panthers back in Week 12, winning 30-27.
The difference in Week 15 will be that Cleveland will turn the ball over too much, thus giving Mahomes too many short fields. Quarterback Jameis Winston has thrown nine interceptions since becoming the Browns starting quarterback in Week 8, which is the most in the league in that span.
Alvin Kamara goes eighth consecutive game without a TD vs. Commanders
New Orleans Saints five-time Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara has long been one of the NFL’s best, and he’s at it again in 2024. Kamara is third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage this season (1,423) and third in touches (287). However, he is stunningly on a seven-game streak without a touchdown, the second-longest such drought of his career. The longest streak of his career is a nine-game stretch in 2019, and he’ll see his 2024 increase to eight against the Washington Commanders in Week 15.
That’s bold considering Washington has allowed the 10th-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season (36). However, the Commanders have the fourth-lowest missed-tackle rate this season (11.6%), per NFL Pro, so they will keep Kamara within their grasp and out of the end zone.
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Author: Garrett Podell
December 13, 2024 | 10:26 am
