Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
This isn’t a college football newsletter, but we might be turning into one today, because we’re going to spend some serious time talking about Bill Belichick’s SHOCKING decision to take the coaching job at North Carolina.
My theory is that he only decided to go to UNC because he realized that NFL teams just weren’t interested in him. That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he has a successful first year at UNC and then uses that success to get an NFL job in 2026. I feel like he really wants to break Don Shula’s NFL record for most wins by a coach, which is something we’ll be touching on today.
Besides breaking down the Belichick situation, we’ll also be making some picks for tonight’s huge NFC West showdown between the Rams and 49ers, plus we’ll be making some predictions for how the wild-card races will shake out.
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1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Rams at 49ers
This is a huge game for both teams, but especially for San Francisco (6-7). If the 49ers want to have any shot of winning the NFC West or staying in the wild-card race, then they’re going to have to win tonight.
Both teams will be missing several key players: On San Francisco’s end, starting left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) will be missing his fourth straight game. As for the Rams, they won’t have tight end Tyler Higbee (knee) or cornerback Cobie Durant (chest).
With that in mind, here’s one reason why each team should be feeling confident about a possible win:
- Why the Rams can win: If you want to beat the 49ers, you have to be able to run the ball on them. Heading into Week 15, the Niners are 0-5 this year when any team rushes for 115 yards or more, which means if Kyren Williams has a big game, that will put the Rams in good spot to pull out the victory. The 49ers defense will likely be focused on stopping Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ passing attack, which could open things up for Williams to have a big night.
- Why the 49ers can win: Brock Purdy is coming off one of his best games of the season after throwing for 325 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14. This could be another game where Purdy puts up big numbers and that’s because he’ll be facing a Rams defense that’s surrendering an average of 225.1 yards per game through the air, which ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL. When Purdy starts connecting with his receivers downfield, that’s when the 49ers become difficult to beat. The Niners are 4-0 this season when he averages at least 9.8 yards per passing attempt, but 2-6 when he doesn’t. Basically, if Purdy plays well, there’s a good chance the 49ers will escape with the win.
The Rams won their first meeting with the 49ers, 27-24, in a game where San Francisco blew a 24-14 lead in the fourth quarter.
You can get a full preview of the game from Jeff Kerr by clicking here.
If you’re thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Brock Purdy OVER 250.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM): The 49ers QB went off for 325 yards against the Bears in Week 14, and now, he gets to face a Rams defense that has struggled to stop the pass this year. Also, 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo is dealing with a foot injury and if he struggles, San Francisco will have to turn to its fifth-string running back, Patrick Taylor Jr. With the running back room looking the way it is, this just feels like a game that Kyle Shanahan is going to put in Purdy’s hands.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Joshua Karty OVER 6.5 points (-105 at BetMGM): When these two teams played back in Week 3, Karty scored nine points in a 27-24 win by the Rams and I feel like we could see a very similar game tonight. Also, Karty is coming off an eight-point game against in Week 14 and I won’t be surprised if he ends up right around that number again in this game.
And in case you’re wondering, my props are now 34-27 on the season (17-12 on kicker props and 17-15 on all other props).
We also have a full Rams-49ers betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for the game.
PICKS FOR ‘TNF’
Kerr’s pick: 49ers 27-24 over Rams
Prisco’s pick: 49ers 28-23 over Rams
My pick: Rams 27-24 over 49ers
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. Bill Belichick is headed to North Carolina: Four things to know about UNC’s surprising hire
This is technically college football news, but since Belichick spent 29 seasons as an NFL coach, we’re going to talk about it here. This was a totally shocking move by Belichick, who has never coached at the college level. His coaching career started as an NFL assistant in 1975 and he was on an NFL sideline in every season from then until 2023.
Here are four things to know:
- Belichick signed a five-year deal. At 72 years old, this will likely be Belichick’s final coaching stop. He’s signed a five-year deal at North Carolina that’s reportedly worth $10 million per year (You can check out the full contract details here).
- Why Belichick could work at UNC. When you’re trying to recruit a player to come to your school, you can basically entice them by promising them three things: Money, a shot at a championship and a shot at the NFL. Belichick checks all three of those boxes, so it won’t be surprising if he’s instantly able to build a contender. The Tar Heels haven’t won a conference title since 1980, so Belichick might get his own statue if he can win one while he’s there.
- Belichick puts his chase of Don Shula on hold. The reason it was surprising to see Belichick take a college job is because he’s just 14 wins away from tying Shula’s record as the NFL’s all-time winningest coach. Including playoff wins, Belichick currently has 333 victories while Shula has 347. If Belichick has a lot of success at UNC during his first year, I won’t be surprised if NFL teams start calling him next season and if that happens, it wouldn’t be shocking if he returned to the NFL so he can break Shula’s record.
- Belichick could be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame as soon as 2026. The Pro Football Hall of Fame passed a new rule this year and Belichick could be the first one to benefit from it. Under the new rule, which was approved in August, the waiting period for coaches to be inducted has been cut down from five seasons to one. Under the previous rule, Belichick wouldn’t have been eligible for the Hall of Fame until 2029, but under the new rule, he could be inducted in 2026.
CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones took an up-close look at Belichick’s shocking decision to head to UNC and you can check out his story here. If you want the full details on his hiring, we’ve got those here.
3. NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 15: Four teams can secure a postseason spot
There are 14 playoff spots in the NFL and as we get ready to head into Week 15, only four of them have been clinched. However, that could change this week, and that’s because there are a total of four teams that could end up punching their ticket to the postseason this week: the Texans, Steelers, Packers and Vikings.
There are multiple playoff clinching scenarios this week, but we’re just going to take a look at the simplest one for each team.
TEXANS (8-5)
Easiest path: The Texans only have one route to the playoffs this week and that involves clinching the AFC South. For that to happen, they need to beat the Dolphins and the Colts have to lose to the Broncos.
STEELERS (10-3)
Easiest path: If the Steelers can beat the Eagles on Sunday, they’ll clinch a postseason spot. If they lose, they can still get in if the Colts lose to the Broncos AND the Dolphins lose to the Texans.
VIKINGS (11-2)
Easiest path: The Vikings could clinch a spot as soon as tonight if the 49ers beat the Rams. On the other hand, if Los Angeles pulls out the win, then the Vikings can punch their ticket by beating the Bears on Monday night.
PACKERS (9-4)
Easiest path: The Packers only have one path and it’s probably not going to happen because they need the Rams and 49ers to TIE in tonight’s game. If that does happen, the Packers would get in with a win over the Seahawks combined with a Falcons loss to the Raiders on Monday night.
Although the Eagles have already clinched a spot in the playoffs, they can clinch the NFC East on Sunday with a win over the Steelers COMBINED with a Commanders loss to New Orleans.
If you want to check out all nine clinching scenarios that are in play during Week 15, you can do that here.
4. Predicting the final record for NFC wild-card contenders: Falcons sneak in
With just four weeks left to play in the season, it doesn’t look like there’s going to be much drama in the NFC wild-card race. At least not with the top two spots. The Vikings (11-2) and Packers (9-4) appear to have those locked up, but the third spot is still somewhat up for grabs.
Right now, the No. 7 seed in the NFC belongs to the Commanders (8-5), but will that be the case at the end of the season? To give us an idea of how things might turn out, Jeff Kerr decided to go through and predict the final four games for every wild-card contender.
Here’s who he sees things shaking out (Each team is listed with their current record plus their predicted final record):
Commanders (8-5): 10-7
Falcons (6-7): 9-8
Buccaneers (7-6): 9-8
Rams (7-6): 9-8
Cardinals (6-7): 8-9
49ers (6-7): 8-9
Out of this group, Kerr has the Commanders earning the No. 7 seed in the NFC and he also has the Falcons sneaking in as the champions of the NFC South. The 6-7 Falcons once had a two-game lead in the division, but they’re now behind the 7-6 Buccaneers heading into Week 15.
If you want to read Kerr’s full game-by-game predictions, be sure to check out his full story here.
5. Predicting the final record for AFC wild-card contenders: Dolphins steal final spot from Broncos
I hope you just read the section above, because everything we just did with the NFC wild-card contenders, we’re now going to do with the AFC playoff contenders.
To give us an idea of how things might turn out, Bryan DeArdo went through and predicted how the final four games will go for every wild-card contender.
Here’s a look at their current record along with their predicted final record:
Ravens (8-5): 11-6
Chargers (8-5): 10-7
Dolphins (6-7): 9-8
Broncos (8-5): 9-8
Colts (6-7): 8-9
Bengals (5-8): 8-9
We officially have a shocker here. According to DeArdo’s predictions, the 6-7 Dolphins are going to get hot enough down the stretch to overtake the Broncos for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. If you want to see his individual predictions for each game, you can do that here.
6. Extra points: Biggest news from the NFL owners meeting
It was a busy day on Wednesday due to the NFL’s annual winter meeting, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- NFL will consider making a change to the onside kick. The NFL views the onside kick as a “dead play” and will be looking to overhaul it during the offseason, according to league executive Troy Vincent. One option would be for the NFL to implement the fourth-and-20 play and it’s something the league will actually consider. You can read more about that proposal here.
- Face-mask penalties could be subject to replay assistance. Ever since the one-year debacle where the NFL allowed teams to challenge pass interference calls, the league has been hesitant to make any penalties subject to review. However, that could be changing. With several high-profile missed face-mask calls this year, the NFL will consider making the face-mask penalty subject to replay assistance.
- NFL prepping for 18-game season. The NFL has already completed the preliminary analysis work on what an 18-game regular-season schedule would look like, according to Roger Goodell. It now seems like it will only be a matter of time before the regular season hits 18 games. One thing standing in the way of expanding the schedule is the collective bargaining agreement (CBA). The players will have to agree to modify it if the NFL wants to expand to 18 games in the near future, otherwise the league would have to wait until the current CBA expires following the 2030 season.
- NFL extends contract with Nike. Nike has been the official uniform maker for every NFL team since 2012 and that won’t be ending any time soon. The company’s current deal was slated to expired in 2027, but the two sides agreed to an extension this week that will keep every team wearing Nike through the 2038 season. You can read all of our takeaways from the NFL winter meetings here.
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Author: John Breech
December 12, 2024 | 2:10 pm
