Driving force behind Chargers’ dramatic turnaround and likely playoff berth in Jim Harbaugh’s first season

In 2023, the Los Angeles Chargers were arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL. L.A. came into the season considered one of the most talented teams in the NFL, but didn’t play anything like that. 

The Chargers lost their first two games in classic Chargers fashion, falling to 0-2 by dropping a pair of one-score games. Just when they got back to .500 by their bye week, they returned and dropped a pair of games to the Cowboys and Chiefs to fall to 2-4. When they again rallied back to .500, the Chargers proceeded to go 1-8 down the stretch, with an embarrassing 63-21 defeat at the hands of the also-terrible Las Vegas Raiders proving too much to handle and resulting in a series of house-cleaning firings.

Fast forward almost exactly a year from that blowout loss, and the Chargers are one of the most pleasant surprises in the NFL to date. They got off to a 2-0 start this year, but managed to fall back to .500 by their bye week. This time, though, they’ve responded by sprinting out to a 6-2 record after that bye, and they sit at 8-4 heading into a massive showdown with the Chiefs this Sunday night. 

They’re currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC. The SportsLine projections give them a 98.5% chance of making the playoffs. They even have the Chargers with a 5.4% chance to win the AFC and a 2.3% chance to win the Super Bowl. 

That would’ve been unthinkable at the start of this season — especially after the new John Harbaugh/Joe Hortiz regime spent the winter completely dismantling the roster and starting over. Alas, here they are. If they can win even two of their last five games, they should get into the postseason. With games remaining against the Patriots and Raiders in the final two weeks of the season, that would seem to be pretty simple. And they have winnable games against Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Denver on the slate before getting there.

Now that they’re in this position, it’s worth identifying the exact areas where the Chargers have improved this year. When digging into the numbers, there are two extremely obvious areas of improvement: Turnovers and pass defense.

In 2023, the Chargers were just about even in the turnover battle. According to Pro-Football-Reference, 10.5% of their offensive drives ended with a turnover. Their opponents finished 10.1% of their own drives with a turnover. Those figures ranked 17th (offense) and 22nd (defense) in the NFL. Essentially, they were just about average.

Things are different this year. Just 3.8% of L.A.’s drives have ended with a turnover this season. That’s the single-best figure in all of football. Meanwhile, the Chargers have gotten a takeaway on 13.0% of their opponents’ drives, which is the eighth-best mark in the league. Only the Bills and Steelers have a larger turnover rate differential than do the Chargers. Turnovers tend to be random year over year, at least on defense, but having such a large swing in your favor is as good a way as any to show improvement in the win column.

With the pass defense, the major improvement has been about getting not sending as many bodies after the quarterback, and holding up well enough on the back end to account for that. The Chargers blitzed on 31.7% of opponent dropbacks last season, via Tru Media. That was a borderline top 10 mark in the NFL. This year, they’ve sent extra pass rushers on 25.4% of dropbacks, which ranks 22nd in the league. 

And they’ve done a considerably better job defending the pass when rushing four. Last year, the Chargers had the league’s fifth-worst pass defense by EPA per dropback when rushing four. Opponents completed 65.9% of their passes at an average of 7.0 yards per attempt, with 13 touchdown passes and just four interceptions. They created an explosive gain on 9.6% of their dropbacks, which was the third-highest rate in the NFL.

This year, the Chargers have the second-best defense by EPA per dropback when rushing four. Opponents are completing 63.3% of their passes at 6.3 yards per attempt, and have thrown just 10 touchdown passes while being picked off a league-high 12 times. They’ve gotten an explosive on only 6.1% of dropbacks, which is the sixth-lowest rate in the league. 

The secondary, including and perhaps especially fifth-round rookies Cam Hart and Tarheeb Still, has been one of the best units in the league — even with Asante Samuel Jr. playing only four games. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has gotten the best season in years out of Derwin James. Guys like Elijah Molden, Kristian Fulton, Ja’Sir Taylor and even recent fill-ins like Tony Jefferson and Marcus Maye have played well. Players playing above expectation is just not something we have seen from the Chargers in recent seasons. But it’s played a significant role in their improvement this year.