Can Cowboys reach playoffs? Dak Prescott and his teammates ‘believe in it,’ so let’s examine their chances

FRISCO, Texas — Doom and gloom swirled around the Dallas Cowboys as they entered Week 12 on a five-game losing streak and with a 3-7 record, their worst since 2020. Injuries to their franchise quarterback, No. 2 receiver, top inside linebacker, as many as four edge rushers, both starting outside corners, left tackle and starting guards made 2024 a challenging year. 

“As a staff, this is very challenging,” head coach Mike McCarthy said. “As we’ve talked as a staff, we’ll be better coaches because of this experience. I believe that. I’ve experienced it in the past. That’s what this league’s about. It’s not about players getting injured. It’s really when and who, the timing of it, getting the young guys ready to play as fast as possible. You have different levels of that each and every year. If you’re going to coach in this league, you have to be able to coach through these times. I know all of us will be better for this experience.”   

They now feel like they can see a light out of their tunnel of darkness following their upset win at the Washington Commanders on Sunday that ran Dallas’ record to 4-7 and their 27-20 victory over the New York Giants on Thanksgiving that pushed their record to 5-7 with their schedule softening up. Plus, longtime backup Cooper Rush’s has started to find his rhythm over the last two weeks after four consecutive starts in place of injured Dak Prescott. He completed 24 of his 32 passes at Washington in Week 12 for 247 yards passing and two touchdowns, which gave him career-highs in both completion percentage (75%) and passer rating (117.6). Rush then put together another solid outing (195 yards and a touchdown on 21 of 36 passing) on Thanksgiving, while running back Rico Dowdle ran for a career-high 112 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries, making him the first Cowboys running back to go for more than 100 rushing yards since Week 3 of the 2023 season against the Cardinals.

“It feels like that because we know what we’re doing,” Cowboys cornerback Jourdan Lewis said prior to the win over the Giants on Thanksgiving when asked if he sees a light at the end of the tunnel in regards to Dallas’ schedule. “We know what we’re doing, and guys are playing hard. We’re executing the right way from all 11 of us on the field. So it feels good. … We’ve been pretty good historically in the past. So we definitely have that confidence in each other that we can go out there and finish games.”

So, can the Cowboys win out?

“That’s the plan. As a football player, as a competitor, we want to win games,” Lewis said. “We saw we were playing good ball the last few weeks. Everything as a team, it wasn’t coming together. It came together in a better way last week, and I feel like that gave us the belief to say, ‘We all can play good ball and win out.'”

Prescott, watching on the sidelines and in the coach’s box while he recovers from a season-ending hamstring injury, also believes in the Cowboys’ chances to make a playoff run. 

“Yeah, I believe in it,” Prescott told CBS Sports on Tuesday. “I support those guys. I know who that team is the way that they prepare. I know the chance that Cooper gives them at quarterback. You never know really, you just got to line up and play every Sunday we have after we’ve gotten these two victories, getting that confidence and getting some momentum rolling. Now we’ve got our first win at home.”

Let’s take a closer look at that possibility, as wild as it may sound. Their remaining five opponents have a combined .508 win percentage, which means the Cowboys are the middle with the 17th-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, per Tankathon. The SportsLine simulation model gives the Cowboys just a 1.8% chance to make the postseason and an even more narrow 0.9% chance to win all five of their remaining regular season games. 

The Cincinnati Bengals have invented new and creative ways to lose despite quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase producing at historic levels through 12 games played. The Carolina Panthers are still in the early stages of their rebuild. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has declined in a major way this season after being a pillar of consistency since 2020. Having to travel to the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that pummeled the Cowboys in Week 10 despite running back Saquon Barkley only registering 66 rushing yards, will definitely be a problem. Other than that, a case can be made that a 9-8 finish for Dallas is within the realm of possibility given the schedule. A 10-7 conclusion to the regular season, which would include a win at Philadelphia, would involve divine intervention. 

“Now we’ve got a great Monday night game coming in against the Bengals team who … hasn’t played, I guess you can say, much better than we have,” Prescott said. “Or hadn’t gotten wins anyways. They’ve actually been lights out on offense, but being able to get that win there and then going over to the Buccaneers, whose record is not far off from ours. If we were able to steal those two, you’re looking at a whole different picture with the Dallas Cowboys in the playoff picture. So I’m pushing for for it and doing everything I can to help make that possible.” 

Since the NFL postseason bracket expanded to 12 teams in 1990 — six each for the AFC and six for the NFC — seven teams have reached the playoffs after beginning a season 4-7. The 2023 Buccaneers reached the playoffs last season after such a start by finishing 9-8 and winning the NFC South. 

The good news for the Cowboys is they’re starting to get healthier: they activated No. 2 wide receiver Brandin Cooks (knee) off of injured reserve, and he caught a touchdown in his first game back on Thanksgiving against the Giants. They have hope four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) can eventually return like 2023 first-team All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland (foot stress fracture) did at Washington. Both right guard Zack Martin (ankle/shoulder) and cornerback Trevon Diggs (groin/knee) have a chance to return in Week 14 against the Bengals on “Monday Night Football.”

Again, a 1.8% chance to make the playoffs means its nearly impossible, but Dallas’ 2024 season does still has a heartbeat.