Thanksgiving Day NFL games have been held continuously since 1945, making the 2024 NFL Thanksgiving Day games the 80th year in a row of the tradition. The Lions have been featured in each of those years, and as the Super Bowl favorite this season, Detroit is favored by 10.5 points over the Bears in the latest NFL odds. With the Lions not only having the NFL’s best record, but also the league’s best against-the-spread record (9-2), you can expect many NFL bets on Detroit to be included in an NFL Thanksgiving Day parlay picks. The Lions vs. Bears over-under is 48.5.
The holiday’s other NFL Thanksgiving Day matchups are Cowboys vs. Giants (+3.5, 37), who will meet for the third time ever on Thanksgiving, as well as Packers vs. Dolphins (+3, 47). Dallas has won its last seven games versus New York, while Green Bay has defeated Miami in three straight. How much should previous results influence who you back with Thanksgiving NFL picks? Before making any NFL predictions for a Thanksgiving Day NFL parlay, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 22-8 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 202-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 56-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.
For the 2024 NFL Thanksgiving Day games, the model has locked in six best bets. If you successfully parlay the picks, you’d be looking at a payout of around 44-1. You can only see the model’s top picks at SportsLine.
Top Thanksgiving NFL picks
The model, which ran 10,000 simulations on each of the three NFL games, likes the Over (47) to hit in Packers vs. Dolphins at 8:20 p.m. ET. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve, the Over is 4-1 for the Dolphins. Additionally, Miami’s five highest point totals of the season have come in this five-game stretch. Also, both teams are coming off victories last week, and history has been very kind to the Over for each squad after a win. The Over is 12-4-1 for Green Bay after a victory since 2023, while the Over is 15-9 for Miami with the same circumstances.
Meanwhile, Green Bay is coming off a season-high of 38 points against a top-notch 49ers defense. Packers running back Josh Jacobs ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards, while quarterback Jordan Love is sixth in passing touchdowns, despite playing in just eight full games. The model projects Love to have multiple passing touchdowns and Jacobs to have 90 scrimmage yards, while De’Von Achane of Miami goes over 100 total yards. With that, the model projects the Over (47) to hit in over 50% of simulations, with points to spare, as the teams combine for at least 50 points. See the model’s top picks here.
How to make Thanksgiving NFL parlays
The model also locked in five other best bets for Thanksgiving Day NFL 2024, including an A-rated spread pick. If the parlay hits, you’re looking at an epic 44-1 payout. You can see the model’s NFL Thanksgiving best bets and parlay only at SportsLine.
Which NFL Thanksgiving picks should you target for a payout of 44-1, and which A-rated spread pick should you jump on? Visit SportsLine now to see the NFL best bets from an advanced model on a 202-136 run on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
November 27, 2024 | 10:30 am
