2024 NFL playoff picture: Ranking AFC wild-card contenders, from Ravens to Colts

We have now reached December football. Thanksgiving is upon us, and after we take in a holiday tripleheader and a Black Friday game this week, we’ll get our first taste of December football on Sunday, marking the final full month of the regular season. Of course, this ramps up what continues to be a mad dash to the postseason, with teams jockeying for position within the playoff picture. 

In the AFC, the divisions are largely secure. Without even factoring head-to-head tiebreakers, the Bills, Chiefs, and Texans all have at least a two-game lead over the second-place team in their respective division. Meanwhile, the Steelers currently sit atop the AFC North but have the Ravens nipping at their heels after a Monday night win over the Chargers that thrust them to 8-4 and up to the No. 5 seed in the conference. 

So, outside of the jockeying between Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the AFC North, that puts a major emphasis on the three wild-card spots that are currently up for grabs. Below, we’ll highlight the teams that are in the realistic running to claim one of those three playoff positions as we enter into Week 13. Before we do, let’s highlight where the playoff picture stands at the moment. 

Alright, let’s get to the rankings! 

1. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

Last week, we had the Ravens as the No. 2 team on this list, but following the head-to-head win over the Chargers on Monday night, we’ll give them their due. Baltimore has now boosted themselves up to the top wild-card spot in the conference and is very much alive in the AFC North race. The combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is proving to be one of the best one-two punches that the league has to offer offensively, while the combination of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews is a capable pass-catching group. The big question for this team and their long-term prospects of making another deep playoff run is their defense, particularly the secondary. They were able to keep the Chargers aerial attack in check for the most part in Week 12 but are still allowing 277.7 passing yards per game (31st).

2. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)

During Los Angeles’ four-game winning streak, they were looking like a well-oiled machine and one of the friskiest playoff contenders in the conference. In Week 12, they were brought back down to reality just a touch, however, with a loss to Baltimore that exposed a key weakness defensively. The Ravens finished with an eye-popping 212 yards on the ground on a 5.7-yards per carry clip. While giving up chunks of yardage to Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry is understandable, it does go beyond that for the Chargers, who are giving up 4.8 yards per carry this season (tied for third-most in the NFL). That said, Justin Herbert is still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the conference, and Jim Harbaugh gives them a strong coaching advantage, which should make them a tough out in the early stages of the playoffs, as I expect them to land one of the final three slots. 

3. Denver Broncos (7-5)

Okay, Bo Nix!! The Denver Broncos rookie has come alive over the last few weeks and has Denver in a strong position to land one of the wild-card spots. Currently, they are clinging to the No. 7 seed and are fending off teams that are currently below .500, while Nix is playing at an extremely high level. Over his last six games, the rookie signal-caller is completing 68.6% of his passes, averaging 244.3 passing yards per game, has a 105.9 passer rating, and has thrown 11 touchdowns with just one interception. Oh, and he’s also registered a rushing and receiving touchdown over this span. With Nix playing at this level and the Denver defense holding opponents to a league-low 4.7 yards per play, they could prove to be a tough out come playoff time.  

Had Tua Tagovailoa not suffered another head injury that landed him on injured reserve, Miami is probably in the playoff picture right now. They went 1-3 in the games he missed, which was also one of the softer pockets of their schedule. It’s plausible that the record is flipped with Tagovailoa, and we’re talking about an above .500 team at the moment. After all, Miami is currently riding a three-game winning streak to claw back into the playoff conversation, and the offense has been humming with Tagovailoa back under center. Since his return, the Dolphins have scored at least 23 points. This upcoming Thanksgiving matchup with the Green Bay Packers will be telling. If they come out of Lambeau Field with a win to bring them back to .500 on the season, they’ll be a real threat to snatch one of the final playoff spots, especially with an easy remaining schedule over the final five weeks.

It’s hard to count out Joe Burrow when he’s playing at a high level, but the Bengals are currently clinging to a prayer as they hope to make the playoffs. At 4-7, they’ll need a lot of things to go right while also likely needing to win out. The fortunate thing for Cincinnati is that they have two head-to-head matchups with the Steelers and a game against the Broncos still on the schedule. If they were to gain those tiebreakers, it could turn the playoff standings on its head. Outside of those games, their three-week stretch of at Dallas, at Tennessee, and vs. Cleveland are all winnable. As Lloyd Christmas once said, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” 

Yes, the Colts have a better record than the Bengals and the same as the Dolphins, but it’s too hard to buy in on them at the moment. Anthony Richardson runs too hot and cold to rely on him down the stretch, and the defense is middle of the pack. Yes, their remaining schedule is the easiest in the NFL, which could help inflate their final record, but a road matchup in Denver in Week 15 could be the game that sticks a fork in their playoff hopes.