Five keys to Chargers turnaround with Jim Harbaugh, including Justin Herbert leap and No. 1 scoring defense

“When people are giving you accolades and compliments and telling you you’ve arrived, kick them in the shins. You kick them right in the shins, that’s what you do.”

That’s what Jim Harbaugh said last week on the Chargers 7-3 start. Well, I better put some shin guards on because I’m about to heap on the praise.

The Chargers will host the Ravens on “Monday Night Football” in the “Harbaugh Bowl” as brothers Jim and John Harbaugh meet for the third time as NFL head coaches in what is one of the most anticipated games of the year.

So far Jim Harbaugh has done what he’s always done. He turns programs around with an immediate culture change. The Chargers are 7-3 this season and have already surpassed their win total from last year (5-12), something Harbaugh has done at every stop of his career from Stanford to Michigan with the 49ers in between.

Jim Harbaugh turnarounds

The Harbaugh effect has been felt in all three phases of the game as the Chargers are one of two teams to rank in the top half of the league in EPA per game on offense, defense and special teams entering Week 12, along with the Lions, who are the Super Bowl favorites and considered by some to be the most complete team in football.

When the Chargers hired Harbaugh this offseason it seemed like a match made in heaven. A perennial underachiever (five straight seasons going under their preseason over/under win total) meets one of the most successful coaches in football history with a reputation for winning, unmatched passion and a unique style. Everything has come to fruition so far.

You know it’s been a good season when we’ve barely seen the phrase “Charger-ing” making the rounds on social media. No crazy blown leads, head-scratching losses in close games or letdown games that have been this franchises’ calling card for decades. 

Here are the keys to the Chargers turnaround around Harbaugh:

In the words of Jim Harbaugh after Sunday’s narrow victory over Cincinnati, “He’s as cold blooded as anybody can possibly be.”

Yes, Justin Herbert has made a leap. How can that be? After all, he had the most pass yards through four seasons by any quarterback in NFL history (17,223) entering 2024. 

Well, Herbert is averaging career-highs in yards per attempt (7.9), TD-INT ratio (13.0), passer rating (102.1), yards per dropback (7.1), average pass length (8.6), explosive pass rate (19.9%) and off-target percentage (8.7%), among other categories. 

The first thing that jumps off the stat sheet is the mistake-free ball he’s playing. He has gone eight straight starts without an interception, the longest streak by a quarterback in Chargers history. He has just one interception all year, matching the fewest by any quarterback through 10 starts of a season in the Super Bowl era (1991 Bernie Kosar, 2007 David Garrard, 2018 Drew Brees, 2018 Aaron Rodgers).

The first thing that jumps off the television screen is his incredible arm talent.

He’s been a revelation since the Chargers bye week. He leads the NFL in explosive pass rate (24.8%) since Week 6 (percent of completions gaining 20+ yards) and hasn’t sacrificed accuracy to do so, ranking third in off-target rate (7.0%) in that span.

He leads the NFL in completion rate (56.7%) and touchdown passes (five) on throws of 20+ air yards since the bye. Overall, he’s airing it out more than ever and having more success, something people were clamoring for under Brandon Staley. According to NFL Pro insights, he leads the NFL in EPA on passes of 20+ air yards this season (+29.4).

Justin Herbert passing 20+ air yards in career

His touchdown pass to Quentin Johnston in Week 11 sums it up best, he’s the complete package. He showcased his athleticism to climb the pocket and throw this dime on the run. Dude has a howitzer for an arm. 

Safe to say, Harbaugh is happy to have inherited this golden arm, and he’s clearly bringing out the best in him. The energy, passion and praise for his quarterback isn’t hurting either!

Defensive turnaround

Herbert is the face of the team besides Harbaugh, but this defense is the backbone and best representation of the organization’s culture shift. 

The Chargers are allowing an NFL-best 14.5 points per game this year, down from 23.4 last year, 24th in the NFL. It’s the best scoring defense improvement in the entire league (-8.9). 

It’s also the fewest points per game allowed by a team in their first year with a head coach since the 2011 49ers with … Jim Harbaugh (14.3). Apparently it runs in the family because Jim’s brother John is also on this list of fewest points per game allowed in their first year with a team in the last two decades.

Fewest PPG allowed in first year with head coach in last 20 seasons

We’ll see if those trends keep up with the schedule getting tougher in the next few weeks and Lamar Jackson on deck, but the biggest improvement in new defensive coordinator Jesse Minters’ defense has been in coverage. The Chargers allow the fourth-lowest average target separation (3.2) this year, improved from the sixth-worst mark in 2023 (3.6), per NFL Pro insights. Los Angeles is allowing the sixth-fewest yards per attempt in 2024 (6.6) vs. the fifth-most last year (7.7)

They are also most stingier situationally, ranking second in third down defense (32%) and red zone defense (41%) after they were middle of the pack in both categories last season. 

The improvements on defense are a true testament to the Harbaugh effect. The Chargers were 20th or worse in scoring defense in each of their first four seasons with Herbert. They failed to put a productive defense around one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league despite being one of the biggest spenders on that side of the ball and having a core that includes Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Asante Samuel Jr. and Derwin James. Not too long ago they were a laughingstock that allowed 63 points to the Raiders last year, a game that was the final nail in the coffin for head coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco. What a difference a year makes.

One thing helping the defense is the position the offense is putting them in. Los Angeles has five turnovers all year, tied with Washington for fewest in the NFL. The Chargers didn’t allow their first points off a turnover until Week 11 vs. the Bengals. Their opponents rank eighth-worst in average starting field position this year (28.3). They aren’t beating themselves, an important part of this team’s winning formula.

Fresh faces

While much of the core of this team remained intact from last year, there was still a lot of roster turnover with popular names like Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and others moving on. They drafted offensive tackle Joe Alt in the first round to help set Harbaugh’s physical tone and protect the franchise face (Herbert). They took wide receiver Ladd McConkey in the second round and also added veterans Bradley Bozeman, Denzel Perryman, Kristian Fulton, Cam Hart, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, among others. 12 of their top 22 players in terms of snaps played were not on the team last year. Their continuity rate from 2023 is the fifth-lowest in the NFL (55% of 2024 snaps were on last year’s team). 

Commitment to the run 

A Harbaugh turnaround would not be possible without a little smash-mouth football. The Chargers have the fifth-highest designed run rate (46%) in the NFL this season after ranking sixth-lowest (35%) in 2023. It’s not just a product of favorable game scripts either as the shift in run rates are similar if you look at the first half of a one-score game in that timeframe. 

Make no mistake, this run game is nothing close to what Harbaugh had in San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore. The results have not been overwhelming (they are 20th in yards per rush this year vs. 27th last year), but it’s served a purpose. The Chargers are 13th in time of possession this year, up from 29th last year. They are taking pressure off Herbert and keeping the defense fresher. 

Plus, J.K. Dobbins has had his moments, too, like on last Sunday’s game-winning touchdown. Dobbins is making a play for NFL Comeback Player of the Year as he ranks 10th in rushing this season (726) after last year’s Achilles injury and his torn ACL in 2021. 

Beating who is on their schedule

The old agage, “you can only beat who’s in front of you” certainly applies to the Chargers this year if you look at their schedule. They are 6-0 vs. teams currently .500 or worse and 1-3 vs teams currently with winning records. The sole win was against the Broncos, who are 6-5. They have the fifth-worst average strength of victory (.315) in the NFL, better than only the Bengals (.225), Panthers (.258), Dolphins (.286) and Bears (.293). 

It’d be silly to dismiss the easy schedule as part of the turnaround, but I don’t think it has tipped the scales as much as other areas listed above. At least they are winning the games they should be winning, something previous Chargers teams did not do. There’s no letdown games with Harbaugh’s team. They have a 7-1 record as a favorite this season (only loss was in Week 7 at the Cardinals) after going 4-5 in those games in 2023. 

Sunday was their biggest statement win of the season as they beat an explosive Bengals team, 34-27, and avoided Charger-ing by prevailing after blowing a 21-point lead. I was wondering to myself throughout that game if this was the old Chargers showing up but they proved me wrong by pulling it out. I’m pretty sure this Chargers team is for real and we’ll have an even better idea after they get through a three-game stretch coming up that includes a home game vs. the Ravens and road games at the Falcons and Chiefs.

Finally, thanks to Jim Harbaugh we are seeing a product on the field that matches the aesthetic of the powder blue uniforms and lightning bolts.