The NFL is set to head into Thanksgiving with a few teams starting to separate themselves from the field.
The Minnesota Vikings are one of those teams inching closer to the playoffs after their fourth straight win, cementing their status as a contender in the NFC. The Washington Commanders have fallen back to the pack with their third straight loss, and it’s not crazy to start wondering if they’ll even make the playoffs at all.
The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs each have 10 wins, but the Lions looked more impressive in getting win No. 10 than the Chiefs did. A win is still a win in the NFL, but it also leads to some overreactions when looking at the bigger picture.
Of the overreactions from the Sunday afternoon slate, which overreactions are really overreactions? And which overreactions have more merit as the season is two-thirds of the way completed?
Chiefs are playing with fire with these one-possession games
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Chiefs found a way to remain the No. 1 seed by getting to 10-1, but they made a bigger challenge out of the Carolina Panthers than it needed to be. Kansas City needed a 31-yard field goal by Spencer Shrader as time expired just to beat Carolina, a game which was tied when the Chiefs got the ball with 1:46 to play.
Thanks to Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs won their 13th consecutive game decided by one possession — tied for the longest streak in NFL history. Kansas City can’t keep coming up on the winning end of these one-possession games all the time, right?
The Chiefs are 8-0 in one-possession games this season, not beating teams by a convincing margin. They also have a 5-1 mark against clubs with winning records, but sooner or later these close victories could come back to bite them.
Betting against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes is a mistake, but Kansas City could get burnt against the top AFC teams in January. Here’s the issue. Outside of Buffalo, which of these elite AFC teams are beating the Chiefs when it matters?
There are reasons to be concerned with Kansas City, but the Chiefs are finding ways to win — even if the wins aren’t impressive.
Vikings are a conference title contender in NFC
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The quietest good team in football is Minnesota, which improved to 9-2 with an overtime victory over the Bears. Minnesota has won four straight games since losing two straight after the 5-0 start, but all those victories came against teams with losing records. The Vikings haven’t played against a team that currently has a winning record since Week 8.
That’s not Minnesota’s fault, as the Vikings held serve with the Lions in the NFC North standings. Minnesota was even close to knocking off Detroit in Week 7, and the Vikings have made the Lions’ margin or error each week very slim.
The Vikings will be tested over the final six weeks, as they will be playing teams .500-or-better records in five of their six games. Minnesota probably isn’t on the level as Detroit (or even Philadelphia), but the Vikings are in a class of their own right below them. Sam Darnold appears to be back on track as well, an excellent sign for this team in the final third of the season.
We’ll find out what the Vikings are made of soon, but it’s too early to anoint them as a conference title contender. The NFC is so hard to predict behind the Lions.
The Seahawks will win the NFC West
Overreaction or Reality: Overreaction
The NFC West is the most unpredictable division in football, which was evident again Sunday when the Seahawks beat the Cardinals to take over the division lead at 6-5. Seattle leads the division via the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona and has a half game advantage over Los Angeles (although the Rams can take over the division lead with a win on “Sunday Night Football”) and a game over San Francisco.
All four teams in the NFC West are separated by a game, making a declaration of any division winner premature. The Cardinals have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams and 49ers, but all these teams still have to play each other again. The Seahawks still have to play the Packers and Vikings on back-to-back weeks and have a 2-2 record in the division, so they still have an uphill battle to win the division — even with the lead.
Every team has a tough schedule the rest of the way. It may be whoever gets to 10 wins claims the division.
Texans are a one-and-done team in playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Each passing week, it’s getting harder to believe the Texans are ever going to figure things out. Houston did get Nico Collins back, which helped the offense, but C.J. Stroud continues to turn the football over and make interesting decisions over the course of games.
Sunday’s loss to the Titans was a bad one for the Texans, who refuse to run away with the division. The expectations are higher than the 7-5 record, as they were supposed to compete with the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens at the top of the AFC. Houston doesn’t even appear close to the level of these teams.
The Chargers are better than the Texans. So are the Steelers. Houston could get one of them to start the playoffs. Based on how inconsistent Houston is week-to-week, a deep playoff run doesn’t look likely.
Commanders are going to miss the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Make that three straight losses for the Commanders, as they couldn’t get out of their own way in Sunday’s defeat to the Cowboys. The Commanders special teams’ gave up two kickoff return touchdowns in the fourth quarter Sunday, one of which was an onside kick return. After Terry McLaurin had an 86-yard touchdown catch with 20 seconds left, Austin Seibert missed an extra point that would have tied the game at 27-27 (Commanders lost 34-26).
In addition to special teams being a disaster, Jayden Daniels has completed just 62% of his passes with just four total touchdowns to three turnovers and a 77.7 rating over the last three games — a stretch where Washington is 0-3. The Commanders are a mess at the moment.
With their NFC East title chances taking a huge hit, the Commanders are the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. The Rams and Seahawks aren’t far behind Washington, either. The schedule is favorable, with three of the five teams remaining currently having losing records, but Sunday’s loss to a deflated Cowboys team was a very bad one for a team looking to go to the playoffs.
49ers are going to miss the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The 49ers have dug themselves into a major hole over the past few weeks, culminating with Sunday’s blowout loss to the Packers (with no Brock Purdy). San Francisco is just one game in the loss column out of the final playoff spot, but is the No. 10 seed in the NFC and last in its division.
There are a lot of obstacles for the 49ers to overcome, the first being Purdy’s shoulder injury, which could linger throughout the rest of the season. If Purdy can’t throw, the 49ers won’t be winning many games. The second factor is the schedule, as the 49ers have the Bills (road), Rams (home), Dolphins (road), Lions (home) and Cardinals (road) in five of their last six games. That’s a tough road for any team battling to play into January.
The 49ers are in serious trouble heading into December. Their Week 13 showdown in Buffalo is a “must win” if they are going to make the playoffs.
Cowboys shouldn’t trade Micah Parsons — at any cost
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The impact Parsons has on the Cowboys defense is special. Parsons had a massive game against the Commanders on Sunday, finishing with eight tackles, two sacks and three quarterback hits in the Cowboys victory. Jayden Daniels was just 6 of 13 for 51 yards with a touchdown and an interception when facing pressure (50.5 rating), as the Cowboys defense can get to the quarterback with Parsons on the field.
The Cowboys need to pay Parsons as one of the top defensive players in football, whether they need to improve other areas of their roster or not. Whether Parsons has a podcast or not shouldn’t be a reason to move on from him, nor should his harmless media actions during the week.
The Cowboys could get a kings ransom for trading a player like Parsons, but it it worth giving up a game-changing player for more draft picks — and significantly more premium picks? Sunday showed why it would be foolish for Dallas to trade Parsons after the season, even if the amount the Cowboys would receive would nearly be greater than what Dallas got for Herschel Walker or what Seattle received for Russell Wilson.
Brian Daboll won’t be the head coach of the Giants in 2025
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Giants owner John Mara has said Daboll’s job is safe, but how can it be after Sunday’s embarrassing 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers? The Giants are arguably the worst team in the NFL, and players are even questioning other players’ motives after the latest blowout loss.
Daboll already made the call to bench Daniel Jones in favor for Tommy DeVito (over Drew Lock), and DeVito went 21 of 31 for 189 yards in the loss — including an anemic 3 of 5 for 31 yards in the first half. Of course Daboll said DeVito will start again on Thanksgiving, despite the Giants having a better option on the bench in Lock.
Not only are the Giants not competitive, they’re embarrassing. They have played six straight games without a lead — the longest streak by any team this season. They have a six-game home losing streak, and are 0-6 at home for the second time in franchise history. New York was shut out in the first half for the seventh time since the start of the 2023 season, the most in the NFL.
This is all under Daboll’s leadership. These performances can’t continue.
Bo Nix will win NFL Rookie of the Year over Jayden Daniels
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
There is a conversation to be had regarding Nix and his Rookie of the Year chances, as he has played his way into the conversation. The Broncos are 7-5 on the year as Nix has improved by the week, the latest performance going 25 of 42 for 273 yards and two touchdowns for a 94.6 passer rating in Sunday’s win over the Raiders.
Nix leads all rookies in total touchdowns (21) and passing touchdowns (16) and has 18 total touchdowns to just two interceptions over his past six games. Nix is just the sixth quarterback since 2000 with 20-plus total touchdowns and two-or-fewer turnovers in a 10-game span within a season, and he’ll play a huge role in the Broncos snapping a nine-year playoff drought (should Denver make the postseason).
Given Daniels’ struggles during Washington’s losing streak, Nix is peaking late in the season while Daniels isn’t. The Rookie of the Year race is close between Nix and Daniels, but it’s still too early to give Nix the award yet. Give Nix credit for playing himself into this conversation and giving himself multiple reasons to win this award.
The Broncos have a good quarterback in Nix, whether he wins the Rookie of the Year award or not. At this point, the award is still Daniels’ to lose — but that’s changing quickly.
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Author: Jeff Kerr
November 24, 2024 | 10:56 pm
