Will Brinson’s NFL Week 12 picks, best bets: Send Aaron Rodgers to the Vikings, sneaky Over in AFC East battle

The Jets‘ season is over. It was probably never going to really get going with the way the organization is structured. And the regime brought in to fix things is gone, with both Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas fired midseason after presiding over a roster that owner Woody Johnson deemed was “the most talented ever” for the Jets.

Oops! Where the Jets go from here will be fascinating, but not nearly as fascinating as where Aaron Rodgers goes. It’s impossible to believe he’ll retire at the absolute nadir of his career. If he wanted to walk away, he should have done it before he joined the Jets. You can’t win multiple MVPs with the Packers, have them draft your successor, throw a huge hissy about it, force a trade to the Jets, disappoint a long-suffering fan base and just call it off when it comes to your career.

No sir. If you do that, you’re a quitter. Instead, Rodgers needs to follow the predetermined path set out by his predecessor. Brett Favre won multiple MVPs, saw Rodgers drafted, threw a hissy, forced a trade to the Jets, struggled, got hurt and then decided to sign with the Vikings. It was an all-time heel move that drove Packers fans crazy.

And now Rodgers has the chance to do the funniest thing ever.

The Vikings have just one quarterback under contract for the 2025 season and it’s rookie J.J. McCarthy, who hasn’t taken a single regular-season NFL snap and who recently underwent a second procedure to deal with a season-ending knee injury he suffered in the preseason. 

Sam Darnold has been a revelation this season, but he’s also stumbled some after a hot start to the year. Kevin O’Connell has shown he can get the most out of questionable quarterback talent. And Rodgers is a Hall of Fame talent. The Vikings have a decent offensive line and, if they can keep Brian Flores around, a pretty good defense.

Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison and Rodgers old teammate Aaron Jones are great skill-position weapons. 

Go get Rodgers, Vikings. Let McCarthy sit and learn behind him for a year while ensuring he’ll be ready to go in 2026. The Rodgers drama is tired and played out at this point, but Rodgers in purple would be an incredible sight, proof that time is a flat circle. And it would be worth every sound bite we have to battle in 2025. 

SKOL.

Week 12 best bets 

David Njoku Over 4.5 receptions (-125)

There shouldn’t be much offense on Thursday night in this AFC North slugfest between two teams with questionable offenses. The Steelers defense, in particular, has been quite stingy this season. I don’t expect many Jameis Winston completions (his line 19.5 is heavily juiced to the under) but I do think tight end David Njoku will end up catching at least five that come his way. There’s a couple reasons here. One, the Steelers are the 12th-most targeted team toward tight ends by opposing offenses. The number should be higher but they’ve played several teams who swapped quarterbacks and several teams who didn’t have quality tight ends. Njoku is one of the better healthy tight ends in football right now. Winston is looking his way frequently too — Njoku has 37 targets over the last four games (three of which were Winston starts, the one he didn’t start three of his 11 targets went Njoku’s way). Winston should be pressured and looking to check down early and often and coupled with a good chance for snow and rain throughout the night, should get Njoku plenty of looks in this one. Receptions and not yardage is the way to target any passing over props in this matchup. 

Bet David Njoku props at BetMGM Sportsbook

Chiefs Team Total Over 27.5 (+105)

This is a nightmare spot for the Carolina Panthers. It shouldn’t be! They’re coming off their bye, having won two previous games, with the whole fan base feeling like the team won three straight by not playing last week. They’re at home with the best vibes the team’s had in literally years. So how is this a bad spot? Well, the worst possible opponent is coming to town in the form of the Kansas City Chiefs. And not just the regular Chiefs either. It’s the Chiefs after a matchup against the Bills in which they suffered their first loss of the year and Patrick Mahomes couldn’t keep pace with Josh Allen and their primary AFC rival. Now the Chiefs have to keep their foot on the gas to try and get the No. 1 seed and they should be able to do just that against a Carolina defense that offers little resistance to a competent offense. Making matters worse, there should be an entire generation of Carolina-based kids in the stands who theoretically would have grown up as Panthers fans but have become bandwagon Mahomes/Chiefs fans because of their success. Trust me, there will be lots of local Chiefs jerseys. K.C. is gonna get to 30 here out of spite. Make sure and shop around because this number is substantially different at various sportsbooks. 

Bet the Chiefs-Panthers game at DraftKings Sportsbook

Patriots-Dolphins Over 46

Weather can be a factor around the NFL this time of year, but when we get a Dolphins home game it’s usually not an issue. And it won’t be on Sunday when Drake Maye and the Patriots come to town. The Dolphins defense has been much better the last two weeks, surrendering less than 20 points to the Rams and Raiders. The Pats offense isn’t great, but the defense has been a bit of a leaky unit the last few weeks and we’ve seen totals go over. I expect a strong game from Tua Tagovailoa in this one, a nice effort from Tyreek Hill and the Patriots to be forced into throwing the ball a bunch as well. That should lead to a back-and-forth and these two teams able to clear 50 points. The Dolphins are still in must-win territory and we’ve seen the Pats engage in throwing the ball more when pushed by the other offense, resulting in some higher-than-expected scores the last few weeks.

Bet the Patriots-Dolphins game at Fanatics Sportsbook

Teaser: Cardinals (+7) / 49ers (+7.5)

Backing two NFC West teams here on the road. Both are in tough spots, but I don’t care. The Cardinals are white-hot, winners of four straight and coming out of their bye with a good coaching staff that wants to go win the division and knows how important this game is. The Seahawks defense won’t be able to slow them down in this matchup and even if they’re losing by double digits, Kyler Murray can get us through the back door. The 49ers just lost to Seattle and should be extremely desperate in Green Bay, a team Kyle Shanahan has dominated in his career. The line has ticked down a full point in San Francisco’s favor but it’s still in teaser range, meaning the 49ers simply can’t get blown out, which I don’t think will happen, particularly with George Kittle returning and Jordan Love’s propensity for throwing interceptions keeping the 49ers in the game. 

Bet a Cardinals/49ers teaser at DraftKings Sportsbook

Broncos-Raiders Under 41

The environment for this game is fine and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bo Nix go off and push Jayden Daniels in the OROY race here (although Daniels might explode too). However, I think the more likely situation is the Broncos feed the run game here with Javonte Williams and Audric Estime and let the defense lock up a questionable Raiders offense. Brock Bowers has been incredible and maybe he gets his here anyway, but Vance Joseph’s defense should be able to put Patrick Surtain II on an island with Jakobi Meyers, double Bowers and severely limit what the Raiders can do on offense. Sean Payton might like to blow out division opponents but he’s been way more focused on destroying the NFC South than anything else. 

Bet on the Broncos-Raiders total at FanDuel Sportsbook