If you saw some drunk old guys dancing around South Beach on Sunday night, don’t be alarmed, that was probably just the 1972 Miami Dolphins. They celebrate every year when the final undefeated team goes down and that’s exactly what happened with Buffalo’s win over Kansas City in Week 11.
Of course, it’s also possible those drunk guys were just Bengals fans, because at this point, drinking is the only way to cope with being a Bengals fan. Joe Burrow looks so dejected after every loss that he looks like he wants to retire and never play again. The Bengals should not let him anywhere near Andrew Luck.
The good news for Bengals fans is that their team can’t possibly lose this week and that’s because they’re on a bye. That being said, I’ll still be betting a small amount of money against the Bengals, because there’s a 50% chance they might still find a way to lose while they’re off.
By the way, the Bengals are one of six teams on a bye this week, so if you’re fantasy team falls apart in Week 12, that’s probably why. I will be sure to fire off an angry email to the NFL schedule makers to let them know that it’s unacceptable for SIX teams to have a bye in the same week this late in the season. Next year, they should let me make the schedule. Just kidding, I can barely handle making picks, there’s no way I could handle making an entire schedule.
Alright, it’s time for me to stop stalling, let’s get to the Week 12 picks.
NFL Week 12 picks
Detroit (9-1) at Indianapolis (5-6)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Lions (-7.5 at FanDuel)
If you didn’t get to watch the Colts on Sunday — and I’m guessing you didn’t because I’m pretty sure their game was only shown to about 1.1% of the country — they pulled off a wild win and it was all thanks to Anthony Richardson. Heading into Week 9, Richardson got benched, but Joe Flacco was so bad during his time on the field that the Colts were forced to give Richardson his job back in Week 10 and he responded by leading a 70-yard game-winning drive in the final minutes of the fourth quarter against the Jets.
Sure, it was against the Jets, so it’s hard to say how impressive it actually was, but after watching the ending of that game, I might be convinced that Richardson has finally turned the corner after a rough start to his NFL career. The old Richardson wouldn’t have led the Colts on a game-winning touchdown drive, because he would have completed only 12% of his passes in the game with four interceptions and the Colts would have lost by 19.
The old Richarson was bad. The new Richardson, though, he might be good. The new Richardson completed 66.7% of his passes against the Jets, which is actually pretty impressive when you consider that his career completion percentage was just 50.2% going into Week 11. The only reason I’m mentioning all of this right now is because if the Colts are going to pull off an upset against the Lions, the new Richardson is going to have to show up and throw for 400 yards.
Actually, let’s be honest, it doesn’t matter what you do against the Lions, you’re not going to beat them. They are destroying everyone. I thought Week 11 against the Jaguars might be a trap game, but the Lions don’t believe in traps or games or trap games. Instead, they put you in a trap and beat you to a pulp and then feed you to an actual Lion.
The Lions aren’t just beating teams, they’re embarrassing them. There have only been three games in the NFL this entire season where a team has won by at least 38 points and the Lions have ALL of them.
Even if Richardson throws for 400 yards, it might not matter, because the Colts will be going into this game with one of the worst rushing defenses in football. They’re one of five teams in the NFL that’s surrendering more than 140 yards per game on the ground, and now, they have to go up against a Lions team that ranks third in the league with an average of 152.2 rushing yards per game.
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are so unstoppable that they came up with new nickname for each other last month: Sonic and Knuckles. For those of you who don’t know, that’s from Sonic the Hedgehog. And now that I’m thinking about it, I feel like they should just give every person in the organization a nickname from Sonic.
They should call Dan Campbell “Tails” because I’m pretty sure his main goal is to kick the tails off every opponent the Lions face this season. The Lions are so good that Campbell’s biggest decision in Week 10 was whether to pull his starters from the game early.
Fun fact, Bryan: There is no one who loves bloodbaths more than Dan Campbell, which is why he leaves his starters in as long as possible.
The Lions don’t just beat teams, they embarrass teams and I’m not sure if a 14-point loss to Detroit qualifies as embarrassing, but that’s what I see happening to the Colts on Sunday.
The pick: Lions 34-20 over Colts
Tampa Bay (4-6) at N.Y. Giants (2-8)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Buccaneers (-5 at BetMGM)
This might go down as the greatest week in history for people with the last name DeVito. First, we saw Danny DeVito turn 80 on Sunday, (Nov. 17) and then less than 24 hours later, we saw Daniel Jones get benched for Tommy DeVito.
I’m guessing that Danny DeVito will play Tommy DeVito in the movie that will eventually be made about Daniel Jones’ benching. When it comes to benching Jones, the Giants didn’t really have a choice here: Over his past 17 starts dating back to last season, the Giants went 3-14 while averaging just 13.6 points per game. Over the past two seasons, Jones arguably wasn’t even the best QB on the team and to be honest, he might not even have been the second best QB on the team.
Here’s a look at the win-loss record for each Giants QB since the start of the 2023 season.
Tyrod Taylor doesn’t EVEN PLAY FOR THE GIANTS ANYMORE and he almost has as many wins as Jones does in New York over the past two seasons.
The embarrassing part is that one reason the Giants let Saquon Barkley walk in free agency is because they decided that Jones was more important to their offense. That being said, I’m not sure anyone in their building actually believed that because during the offseason version of Hard Knocks, the Giants front office spent 30 minutes of every episode trying to replace Jones.
Imagine being Daniel Jones and being forced to watch your team try to replace you every week on “Hard Knocks.” I’m guessing he wasn’t a fan of what he saw.
The tweet above is from Aug. 3. I have no idea how Jones lasted three more months as the Giants’ starting QB. He probably should have been benched on Aug. 4.
Now that Jones is on the bench, I don’t think things will improve that much with Tommy Devito running the show: The Giants’ offense is still bad, their defense is still bad and I’m going to go ahead and pick the Buccaneers to win by double digits.
The pick: Buccaneers 27-16 over Giants
San Francisco (5-5) at Green Bay (7-3)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: 49ers (-1.5 at FanDuel)
The last time we saw these two teams on the same field came in the divisional playoffs last January when the Packers let a seven-point lead slip away in the fourth quarter in a 24-21 loss. The fact that the game went down to the wire wasn’t a surprise, because EVERY game goes down to the wire when these two teams play. Since the start of the 2021 season, these two teams have played three times and those three games have been decided by an average of 2.7 points.
I have a theory on why they always play close games and it’s because 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is best friends with Packers coach Matt LaFleur. The two spent a total of six seasons together at two different stops (Washington from 2010-13 and Atlanta in 2015 and 2016) and each guy is very familiar with the football philosophy of the other guy.
When these two teams play, it sometimes feels like the 49ers are so familiar with Green Bay’s offense that the 49ers defense knows what the Packers are going to do before the Packers know what they’re going to do and vice versa. NO ONE HAS AN EDGE.
Actually, I take that back, I do think the 49ers do have a small edge this week and that’s the fact the Packers defense has looked very beatable over the past few weeks. Green Bay has played three games since Week 8 and they gave up 390 yards or more in two of those games. The worrisome part is that the two teams that put up those offensive numbers are the JAGUARS and the BEARS.
The Jaguars are on the verge of firing their coach and they haven’t been able to move the ball on anyone, but they managed to put up 390 yards and 27 points on the Packers. As for the Bears, they went 23 STRAIGHT DRIVES without scoring an offensive touchdown before exploding for 391 yards and TWO offensive touchdowns against the Packers. Giving up 390 yards to those two teams is like surrendering 774 yards to a normal offense.
I think what I’m trying to say is that I expect Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense to have a big day against Green Bay, but I also expect the Packers offense to have a big day against a 49ers defense that likely won’t have Nick Bosa.
The 49ers have choked away three wins this year in losses to the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals, so I have to think they’re done choking. If they find a way to lose this one, someone is going to have to perform the Heimlich maneuver on them to save their season.
The pick: 49ers 27-24 over Packers (If Brock Purdy plays. Purdy is day-to-day with arm soreness)
The pick: Packers 27-13 over 49ers (If Brock Purdy doesn’t play)
Philadelphia (8-2) at L.A. Rams (5-5)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread pick: Rams (+3 at FanDuel)
The problem with trying to pick a winner in this game or any Rams game is that I have no idea which Rams team is going to show up. Are we going to see the Rams team that put up 30 points on the Vikings in Week 8 or are we going to see the Rams team that didn’t bother to show up during a Week 10 loss to the Dolphins where they only scored 15 points?
With the Eagles, at least I know what I’m getting: Nick Sirianni will make at least three inexplicable decisions in this game, but he’ll be bailed out by either Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts making a big play that makes everyone forget about Sirianni’s weird decision.
So we have the mystery of Nick Sirianni (What crazy decision will he make in this game) against the mystery of the Rams (which team will show up) and as someone who read every Hardy Boys mystery book as a kid, I think I have this one figured out.
Eagles rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell has been having a fantastic year, but this will be his biggest test of the season for him and the rest of Philly’s secondary. Yes, the Eagles did face the Bengals, but Cincinnati didn’t have Tee Higgins. Yes, the Eagles did face the Commanders, but Jayden Daniels isn’t quite at the level of Matthew Stafford when it comes to throwing the ball. Besides those two quarterbacks, the Eagles have faced Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawerence and Cooper Rush since their Week 5 bye, which is the opposite of a murderer’s row.
The Rams are 1-4 this season when Stafford is sacked three times or more, but 4-1 when he’s sacked two times or less, so if the offensive line can keep Stafford clean, I think we could see both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have huge games.
Since being traded to the Rams in 2021, Stafford has gone 11-2 from Week 12 on and that record jumps up to 15-3 if you include the playoffs. I think what I’m trying to say here is that I won’t be picking against Stafford in this game.
The pick: Rams 34-31 over Eagles
Baltimore (7-4) at L.A. Chargers (7-3)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread pick: Ravens (-3 at FanDuel)
The final game of Week 12 will be giving us John Harbaugh vs. Jim Harbaugh and the NFL is clearly doing its best to divide the Harbaugh family by scheduling this game three days before Thanksgiving.
If you’re still wondering why Jim Harbaugh left Michigan for the NFL, there’s only one theory that makes sense: It wasn’t for the money, it wasn’t to avoid an NCAA punishment, no, it was so he could finally beat his brother. This game will mark the third time that the brothers have faced off in the NFL and John is 2-0 against Jim, which includes a Ravens win over Jim’s 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII.
Jim Harbaugh is the most intense man on earth and there’s 100% chance he has been thinking about that Super Bowl loss every second of his life. I’ve never faced my younger brother in a Super Bowl, but I did lose to him iin Mario Kart once back in 2007 and I’m still bitter about it. No one likes losing to their younger brother in anything, so I have to think that Jim has had this game circled on his calendar since the schedule came out in May.
This game is a showdown that give us the highest-scoring team in the AFC (Baltimore) against a Chargers defense that has given up the fewest points in the NFL. The Chargers defense struggled to slow down Joe Burrow last week, and now, things aren’t going to get much easier with Lamar Jackson on deck. Jackson ranks second in the NFL in passing yards, but that’s not all you have to deal with when you face him, because he might also run for 100 yards against you. Oh, and that’s not all. With the Ravens, there’s another layer of difficulty: Jackson has the best running back in the NFL behind him in Derrick Henry.
I think the Chargers are going to have a tough time slowing down the Ravens, but I don’t expect this to be a blowout and that’s because Justin Herbert might throw for 600 yards on Monday night. Herbert diced up a bad Bengals defense in Week 10, and now, he gets to face an even worse defense with Baltimore coming to town. The Ravens are surrendering 284.5 yards per game, which ranks DEAD LAST in the NFL. It’s also a wild number when you consider that no team in the NFL gave up more than 263 yards last season.
John Harbaugh is 2-0 against his brother and I’m going to go ahead and predict that he spoils Jim’s Thanksgiving by beating his brother for a third time.
The pick: Ravens 38-31 over Chargers
NFL Week 12 picks: All the rest
Steelers 27-17 over Browns
Vikings 23-16 over Bears
Dolphins 24-17 over Patriots
Commanders 31-13 over Cowboys
Chiefs 27-13 over Panthers
Texans 20-17 over Titans
Broncos 31-16 over Raiders
BYES: Bills, Bengals, Jets, Jaguars, Falcons, Saints
Last Week
Best pick: It took me 11 weeks, but I finally learned my lesson and that lesson is that you should never pick the Jets to win. Just don’t do it. If a friend tells you to pick the Jets to win, then find a new friend. If your doctor tells you, then stop going to the doctor.
Last week, the Jets were favored to beat the Colts and although I really wanted to pick them to win, I spent three hours in a dark room by myself, which is how Aaron Rodgers would have handled this, and during that time, my inner-voice told me to take the Colts. My inner-voice is now 1-0 when making picks this year, which means I will now be spending three hours in a dark room before making any more picks that involve the Jets.
Worst pick: Two weeks ago, I said I was going to ride the Jameis Winston bandwagon until it went off a cliff, but the joke was on me, because he couldn’t go off a cliff due to the fact that the entire team went off a cliff two months ago. And as we all know, they can’t go off the cliff again because they’re already at rock bottom.
The Browns are going nowhere, but for some reason, I still convinced myself that they could beat the Saints in Week 10 and that definitely didn’t happen. Instead, the Saints won 35-14. The only saving grace is that I had Taysom Hill on my fantasy team and he scored 32 points, which allowed me to destroy my brother-in-law this week. There is no better feeling in fantasy football than destroying your brother-in-law.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Titans (9-1), Texans (9-2), Jaguars (9-2), Raiders (8-2), Chiefs (8-2)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (Eight straight correct picks)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Bengals (4-7), Ravens (4-7), Steelers (4-6), Cardinals (4-6),
Longest losing streak: Saints (Three straight incorrect picks)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 11: 10-4
SU overall: 100-66
Against the spread in Week 11: 9-5
ATS overall: 85-78-3
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably in the middle of a Hallmark movie marathon.
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Author: John Breech
November 19, 2024 | 9:21 am
