NFL playoff picture: Bills now own AFC tiebreaker vs. Chiefs, but here’s how often it’s projected to matter

Under the bright glow of the Highmark Stadium video display flashing the message BILLS WIN on Sunday night, the champ and the challenger met at midfield. There, Patrick Mahomes, quarterback of the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, and Josh Allen, quarterback of the upstart Buffalo Bills, shared a bro hug and congratulated each other. Their teams had just battled for 60 wild minutes in arguably the NFL’s best game of the year with the Bills winning 30-21.

“We’ll see you guys soon,” Allen told his counterpart.

Replied Mahomes, “We’ll do it again, baby.”

Though not directly expressed, the implication was clear and significant. To Allen and Mahomes — and untold others watching from home — Sunday’s game felt like just the first meeting between these teams this season. The sequel, they believe, will come in the AFC Championship Game in January.

Even the SportsLine Projection Model agrees that the nation will get Bills-Chiefs II. To review: Despite the loss, Kansas City (9-1) still owns the best record in the AFC. Buffalo (9-2) is just a half-game behind, and the Steelers (8-2) are third.

According to the model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, the Bills and Chiefs have a 21.7% chance of meeting again in the AFC Championship game. That’s more than twice the next-most likely matchup, Bills-Ravens (10.1%).

In addition, Sunday’s outcome had enormous ramifications on the AFC playoff race. The Bills, who now own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City, now have roughly the same chance of earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC (43.6%) as the Chiefs (44.7%) despite being a half-game back in the standings. That’s important, of course, because the top seed gets a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

“We have Buffalo winning a higher percentage of their remaining games,” says Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model. “Buffalo has one tough game remaining against Detroit. Kansas City has three tough games: Chargers, at Steelers and at Broncos.

“While Kansas City has the big advantage over Buffalo in winning 15-plus games, Buffalo has the advantage in winning 12 to 14 games, 83% to the Chiefs’ 72%.”

In the victorious and joyous Bills locker room after Sunday’s game, Bills coach Sean McDermott cautioned his players that they still have a long way to go.

“This is not our Super Bowl,” he told them. “It is not the end of the line. This is not the finish line. We’ve got a lot more, a lot more. Let’s stay humble in victory, humble in victory and hungry.”

The Bills have a bye week this week, but as for the Chiefs’ Week 12 game against the Panthers, the SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in well over 50% of simulations. However the game is not one of the two with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 12. You can find those top-tier Week 12 NFL picks at SportsLine.