Rams vs. Patriots odds, line, start time: 2024 NFL picks, Week 11 predictions from proven model

The New England Patriots (3-7) will try to build on their recent momentum when they face the Los Angeles Rams (4-5) on Sunday afternoon. New England has pulled off a pair of upset wins in the last three weeks, beating the Jets and Bears. The Patriots are still in last place in the AFC East, but they have something to build on under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. Los Angeles is in 10th place in the NFC standings after its three-game winning streak was snapped in a 23-15 loss to Miami last week. The Rams have not faced the Patriots since notching a 24-3 win at home in 2020. 

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Rams are favored by 4 points in the latest Patriots vs. Rams odds, while the over/under is 43.5 points per SportsLine consensus. Los Angeles is a -205 money line favorite (risk $205 to win $100), while New England is a +171 underdog.  Before entering any Rams vs. Patriots picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on Los Angeles-New England. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the game:

• Patriots vs. Rams spread: Rams -4
• Patriots vs. Rams over/under: 43.5 points
• Patriots vs. Rams money line: Rams -205, Patriots +171
• Patriots vs. Rams picks: See picks here
• Patriots vs. Rams streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Patriots can cover

New England is returning home for the first time since the end of October, when it picked up a 25-22 win over the Jets as a 7-point underdog. The Patriots were able to spring that upset without rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who left with a concussion. Maye returned for an overtime loss to the Titans the following week and led the Patriots to a 19-3 win over the Bears last week. 

He completed 15 of 25 passes for 184 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 24 yards on four carries. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson added 74 rushing yards, and New England’s defense held Chicago to just 142 total yards. The Patriots have covered the spread in six of the last eight meetings between these teams, winning six of the last seven matchups outright. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Rams can cover

Los Angeles was able to reset its season with a Week 6 bye following a 1-4 start to the campaign. The Rams rattled off three consecutive wins over the Raiders, Vikings and Seahawks to get back into the playoff conversation. They had that winning streak snapped in a 23-15 loss to Miami on Monday, despite getting 293 passing yards from quarterback Matthew Stafford. 

He has 2,262 passing yards and nine touchdowns this season, going over 275 passing yards in three straight games. Third-year running back Kyren Williams leads the rushing attack with 664 yards and eight touchdowns. Wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both healthy heading into this important matchup. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Patriots vs. Rams picks

The model has simulated Rams vs. Patriots 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins New England vs. Los Angeles on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Rams spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 197-136 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.