Packers vs. Bears odds, line, start time: 2024 NFL picks, Week 11 predictions from proven model

The Chicago Bears (4-5) will try to get back on track when they host the Green Bay Packers (6-3) in what almost serves as a must-win game on Sunday afternoon. Chicago has lost three straight games to fall to last place in the NFC North, trailing first-place Detroit by four games. Green Bay is only two games behind the Lions and currently occupies the final wild-card spot in the NFC. The Packers had their four-game wining streak snapped in a loss to Detroit two weeks ago, but they had a bye last week to reset following that loss. 

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Soldier Field. The Packers are favored by 5.5 points in the latest Bears vs. Packers odds, while the over/under is 40.5 points per SportsLine consensus. Green Bay is a -253 money line favorite (risk $253 to win $100), while Chicago is a +206 underdog. Before entering any Packers vs. Bears picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on Green Bay-Chicago. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the game:

• Bears vs. Packers spread: Packers -5.5
• Bears vs. Packers over/under: 40.5 points
• Bears vs. Packers money line: Packers -253, Bears +206
• Bears vs. Packers picks: See picks here
• Bears vs. Packers streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Bears can cover

Chicago has been a streaky team this season, winning three straight games before its current three-game skid. The Bears won two of those games at home before beating Jacksonville in London, as rookie quarterback Caleb Williams threw four touchdown passes in that contest. Williams has struggled during the three-game losing streak, but he has only thrown one interception since Week 3. 

Running back D’Andre Swift leads Chicago’s rushing attack with 564 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. The Bears have won nine of their 10 home games dating back to last season, and they have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games against NFC opponents. Green Bay has only covered twice in its last six games. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay had its four-game winning streak snapped in a loss to red-hot Detroit two weeks ago, but the Packers had a week to rest following that loss. The bye week came at a crucial time for the Packers, as running back Josh Jacobs (quadriceps) has been limited in practice but carries no injury designation entering this matchup. Jacobs has a team-high 762 rushing yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. 

Quarterback Jordan Love has 1,820 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, connecting with wide receiver Jayden Reed 36 times for 620 yards. The Packers have generated 19 turnovers this season, and they are facing an injury-riddled Chicago offensive line. Additionally, head coach Matt LaFleur is a perfect 10-0 straight up and against the spread against the Bears. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Bears vs. Packers picks

The model has simulated Packers vs. Bears 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Chicago vs. Green Bay on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Packers vs. Bears spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 197-136 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.