NFL Week 11 bold predictions: Titans stun Vikings; Lamar Jackson, Ravens go off vs. Steelers defense

For just the fifth time in NFL history and only the third in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), there will be at least three games in Week 11 or later featuring teams with a 70% win percentage or better.

One already went down on “Thursday Night Football” with the Philadelphia Eagles improving to 8-2 after defeating the Washington Commanders, who fell to 7-4. Two other such games are in store this week with the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) and the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at the Buffalo Bills (8-2). 

We have surprising outcomes projected here in our latest crop of CBS Sports NFL bold predictions for those two games, plus three other matchups. Let’s dig in. 

Titans upset Vikings behind stingy defense

Are the 7-2 Minnesota Vikings a real contender? Or are they frauds? Since their Week 6 bye week, they’re 2-2 with losses against the Detroit Lions (31-29) and the Los Angeles Rams (30-20) and narrow wins against the recently benched Joe Flacco and the Indianapolis Colts (21-13) and the Mac Jones-led Jacksonville Jaguars (12-7). 

With their Week 10 road win at the 2-8 Jaguars, the 2024 Vikings became the first team to win a game with no touchdowns and three or more turnovers since the 2006 Green Bay Packers, who did so against Minnesota. NFL teams had lost 195 straight games with no touchdowns and three more turnovers. Quarterback Sam Darnold was responsible for all three giveaways with three interceptions, and he now has six passing touchdowns and nine turnovers in his past five games after 11 touchdowns and four turnovers in his first four games. He now leads the NFL with 13 turnovers this season, and averages the third-most turnovers per game (1.11) in his career among active QBs with at least 50 starts. He trails only Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (1.14 turnovers per game) and Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston (1.27 turnover per game). 

Darnold won’t get away with his turnover problem in Week 11 against the 2-7 Tennessee Titans. Their defense is allowing the second-fewest total yards per game this season (273.6), which means Darnold will likely have to march the Vikings offense down the field without too many big-shot plays. Tennessee can also play keep away behind the strength of running back Tony Pollard and its ground game. Pollard’s 666 rushing yards this season are the 11th-most in the NFL, and he leads the league in yards after contact per rush (3.77), among those with at least 100 carries this season. The Titans force Minnesota to feel the consequences of its sloppy play, sending them back home with a loss. 

Ravens beat Steelers, drop 30 on NFL’s No. 2 scoring defense

The winner between the Ravens and Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh will be in sole possession of first place in the AFC North. In recent history, the Steelers have had a decisive edge, winning seven of the last eight but all by one score.

This time around, the Ravens are going to win, and they are going to do so emphatically by scoring at least 30 points on the Steelers defense that is allowing the second-fewest points per game in the entire NFL (16.2).  All-Pro T.J. Watt has four forced fumbles this season, which is tied for the most in the league with San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner entering Week 11.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s past against the Steelers is ugly: he has lost three of his four starts against the Steelers with four total touchdowns and 10 turnovers while registering a 66.4 passer rating in four starts, his worst against any NFL team. None of that will matter against the Steelers on Sunday. The Ravens offense is on a historic run, averaging 7.1 yds/play this season, the most in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). 

Why? Because Jackson and running back Derrick Henry are on pace to rewrite the history books. Jackson is on pace to register the best single-season passer rating in NFL history (123.2) and is leading the NFL in nearly every passing metric this season. He is also on pace to become the first player in NFL history with at least 4,000 passing yards and 800 passing yards this season since he is in line to throw for 4,537 yards and run for 914 yards entering Week 11, per CBS Sports Research. 

* Career high

Henry is the first player since Pro Football Hall of Famer Terrell Davis (1998) to lead the NFL in carries (184), rushing yards (1,120), yards per carry and rushing touchdowns (12) through Week 10. He is also on pace to register career highs in yards per carry (6.1) and rushing touchdowns (20). This backfield cannot be stopped, even by the stout Steelers defense.

Bills hand Chiefs first loss of 2024, snap K.C.’s 15-game winning streak

It’s one of the football world’s favorite times of the year: the AFC’s battle of Goliaths between Patrick Mahomes and his unbeaten Chiefs and Josh Allen and his AFC East-leading Bills has arrived in Week 11. Mahomes’ Chiefs are unbeaten, but it’s by the lowest point differential (+58) of any 9-0 team in NFL history.  

Mahomes has played as poorly as he ever has in his eight-season career with his fewest touchdown passes (12) and worst passer rating (90.3) through nine games of a season in his career, but the Chiefs keep stumbling their way to victories. 

However, this game will be won be Allen triumphing over Chiefs four-time Super Bowl champion defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and his blitz-happy defense. Kansas City blitzes on 36.9% of opponent dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL this season, and they have the most defensive total expected points added (41.45) when blitzing in the entire league this season, per TruMedia. On the flip side, Allen has thrown for 705 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions vs. the blitz in 2024, which gives him the most passing touchdowns against the blitz in the entire league this season, per NFL Pro Insights. 

A key factor in Allen’s success against the blitz is his more buttoned-up play style. Instead of scrambling and chasing the deep ball, he has thrown the ball quicker and shorter than ever before. That’s why he began 2024 on a seven-game interception-free streak. The Bills offensive line stability is also massive. The Bills are only one of two teams to have the same offensive line starting five in every game of 2024, along with the San Francisco 49ers, per CBS Sports Research, and they have the most offensive snaps played of any five-man offensive line combination. The lineup of left tackle Dion Dawkins, left guard David Edwards, center Connor McGovern, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown has 547 offensive snaps together. 

Allen can and will win against Spagnuolo and his signature blitz packages to hand the Chiefs their first loss of 2024 in Week 11. 

Packers QB Jordan Love ends seven-game interception streak vs. elite Bears pass defense

Many people liken Green Bay Packers starting quarterback Jordan Love to his future Hall of Fame predecessor Aaron Rodgers because of eerily similar mechanics and ball placement at times. However, he is currently playing more like Rodgers’ Hall of Fame predecessor Brett Favre. Love possesses a seven-game interception streak at the moment, the longest streak by a Packers quarterback since Favre’s 12-game streak that stretched across the 2005 and 2006 seasons. 

Love’s 15 touchdown passes are tied for the eighth-most in the NFL this season with Rodgers and his 10 interceptions are tied for the the most in the league this season with Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith and Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold. Love is also the first player since former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck in 2015 to have at least 15 touchdown passes and at least 10 interceptions in the first seven games of a season, per CBS Sports Research. 

However, Love’s streak ends in Week 11 at the Chicago Bears. It’s a bold prediction because Chicago has one of the NFL’s best defenses, ranking either as a top 10 or top five unit in multiple, key pass defense metrics. 

Matt LaFleur has a 10-0 record against Chicago since becoming Green Bay’s coach in 2019, which is tied for the longest winning streak in series history with another Packers 10-game winning streak led by Mike Holmgren and Brett Favre from 1994-1998. In Love’s two wins against Chicago last season, he threw for five touchdowns and no interceptions. He’ll continue that level of play in Chicago on Sunday and end his seven-game interception streak against the top-tier Bears secondary. 

Maxx Crosby’s sackless streak gets extended to three games after failing to take down Tua Tagovailoa

Las Vegas Raiders three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby is having another Pro Bowl-caliber year. His 6.5 sacks are tied for 13th in the NFL while his 11 tackles for loss and four batted passes are both tied for the third-most in each metric this season. 

However, he is currently sackless in each of his last two games. That streak will extend to three against Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins despite Crosby’s pass-rush chops. While Tagovailoa has three batted passes in his last three starts, he has only been sacked on 5.5% of his dropbacks, which is the ninth lowest rate in the entire NFL. Even worse news for Crosby is Tagovailoa’s average time to throw of 2.53 seconds is the fastest in the NFL this season. 

Crosby is elite, but he won’t end his sackless streak in Week 11.