NFL

Previewing Chiefs at Bills showdown, plus grades for Commanders-Eagles and NFL Week 11 bold predictions

by
SaC Bot
November 15, 2024

USATSI

Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

It’s a big week here at CBS Sports and that’s because we have a monster game on Sunday with the Bills hosting the Chiefs at 4:25 p.m. ET in what could go down as the biggest regular-season game of the year. This game is so big that our pregame show, THE NFL TODAY, will be live from Buffalo on Sunday. If you’re going to be in the area, fans can join the CBS crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at noon.

I will not be there, which is probably for the best, because not only would I be shirtless, but I would probably try to become an official member of Bills mafia by jumping through a folding table that may or may not have been on fire.

We’ll be covering that AFC showdown in today’s newsletter, plus we’ll be taking a look at last night’s game between the Eagles and Commanders with some grades. We’ll also be making some bold predictions for Week 11, so let’s get to the rundown.

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

1. Eagles outlast Commanders: Grades and notes for ‘Thursday Night Football’

The Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) took control of the NFC East on Thursday night with a 26-18 win over the Washington Commanders (7-4). After falling behind 10-3 in the third quarter, the Eagles scored 23 straight points to put the game away.

Here are our grades from the game:

COMMANDERS GRADE: C

At some point, Jayden Daniels was bound to have a bad game and it finally happened. Daniels couldn’t get anything going with through the air (191 yards) and he had no room to run (18 yards), which is a big reason why Washington’s offense sputtered for most of the final three quarters. The problem for Washington is that the defense wasn’t much better, especially during a second half where the Commanders got steamrolled for 141 yards on the ground (The Eagles totaled 228 rushing yards in the game). Stopping the run has been a weakness all season for the Commanders and it doesn’t look like they’ve fixed anything. Dan Quinn also made a bizarre decision in the fourth quarter when he passed up a shot at kicking a field goal that would have given his team a 13-12 lead. This loss hurts definitely hurts the Commanders’ chances of winning the division title, but they’re definitely not out of it.

Commanders notes

Commanders get run over. Going into this game, Washington was surrendering the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL (142.7) and that number is only going to get worse after the Commanders gave up 228 to the Eagles. That marks just the third time over the past five years that Washington has surrendered 225 rushing yards or more in a game.
Commanders can’t beat the Eagles. With this loss, the Commanders are now 1-6 in their past seven games against the Eagles. Washington will get another crack at Philly in Week 16 and the Commanders will likely need to win that game if they want to have any shot of winning the NFC East.

EAGLES GRADE: B

The Eagles defense did what no other NFL team has really been able to do this season: They shut down Jayden Daniels. They did that by applying constant pressure, which led to three sacks and a fourth-quarter interception by Reed Blankenship. On the offensive side of the ball, the Eagles struggled early, but then Saquon Barkley took over in the second half. Barkley rushed for 76 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone on a night where he totaled 198 yards (146 on the ground and 58 through the air). The Eagles did have to deal with multiple missed kicks by Jake Elliott, but he’s been so consistent throughout his career that they probably won’t need to worry about him as long as he’s able to fix things by Week 12. The Eagles didn’t play a perfect game, but they won comfortably, which will probably give them plenty of confidence going forward.

Eagles notes

Saquon is unstoppable. With 146 yards on the ground, Saquon Barkley now has rushed for at least 140 yards in four different games this season. That marks the first time since 2005 (Shaun Alexander) that a player has done that in his first 10 games. Barkley has also been quite the closer. For the second time this season, the Eagles running back rushed for at least 50 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, which is wild when you consider that no other player in the NFL has even done that once.
Eagles survive meltdown by Jake Elliott. The Eagles kicker had the worst game of his career on Thursday night. Not only did he miss two field goals in the game for the first time since 2019, but he also missed an extra point. The performance marked the first time in Elliott’s career that he missed three kicks in one game.
All-around dominance. The Eagles outgained the Commanders by 170 yards (434-264), which makes them just the second team over the past 30 years to outgain their opponents by at least 100 yards in six straight games, joining the 2019 49ers.

Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here.

2. Roger Goodell reveals timeline for possible international and regular-season expansion

Roger Goodell has made it very clear over the past 12 months that he wants to expand the regular-season schedule while also adding more games to the international schedule. However, the NFL commissioner had never put a timeline on his plans until this week.

During an appearance at Liberty Media’s investor day, Goodell had some interesting things to say about possibly expanding the schedule (via Sports Business Journal).

Goodell wants to see 16 international games within five years. The NFL played five international games this year and will likely bump that up to eight for the 2025 season. By 2029, Goodell wants to see the NFL holding 16 international games. “We hope to be 16 within five years,” Goodell said.
When will the schedule expand to 18 games? It seems that Goodell would like to see the schedule get expanded to 18 games at the same time that the international game gets expanded. “We could be doing more regular season than preseason, so we’re looking at a change from the 17-and-three format to maybe 18 regular season games and two preseason games,” Goodell said. “And that will open up more inventory to allow us to play more globally.”
The one hold up with expanding the schedule. Although Goodell wants to see the schedule expanded, that can’t happen unless the NFLPA is on board. The current collective bargaining agreement runs through the 2030 season, which means nothing can be done about expanding the regular-season schedule before then unless the NFLPA approves it. Back in May, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones broke down what the players might ask for in exchange for agreeing to add an 18th game before the current CBA expires and you can check that out here. One thing Jones noted is that that players might ask for an extra bye, which would turn the current 18-week regular season into a 20-week season.

The bottom line is that more international games are definitely coming and an expanded regular season is likely coming, and it’s all probably going to happen before the end of the decade.

3. Chiefs at Bills: Breaking down the AFC showdown in Buffalo

As I mentioned at the top, this is such a huge game that THE NFL TODAY will be live from Buffalo on Sunday. And once again, if you’re going to be in the area, fans can join the CBS crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at noon.

We’ve got a lot to cover on this game, so let’s get to it:

Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. Cody Benjamin put together a tale of the tape between these two quarterbacks, and according to his final verdict, Allen should have the edge in this game. If you want to know how he came to that conclusion, you’ll have to check out his story here.
Chiefs offense is better than you think. The Chiefs haven’t been blowing teams out this year and they haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard, but their offense might be better than you think. One key thing they’re doing? They’re averaging the more time of possession per drive (3:22) than any team on record (data available back to 1991). That let’s Kansas City control the game. Doug Clawson took a look at a few other factors that make this offense so good and you can check those out here.
The matchup that will decide the game. Garrett Podell broke down why the matchup between Josh Allen and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will decide the game. Allen has had some of his biggest games against the Chiefs and you can read about why he might have another one here.
Don’t bet against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are set to be an underdog in this game for just the 15th time in Mahomes’ career. The reason you shouldn’t bet against him is because he’s 11-3 straight-up in the previous 14 games and 12-1-1 against the spread. You can read more about his impressive record here.

With the Chiefs sitting at 9-0 and the Bills at 8-2, this game will be a rarity in NFL history: This will mark just the fifth time over the past 54 years that two teams with eight wins or more have played each other in Week 11 or before. You can read more interesting facts about the game here.

4. NFL Week 11 picks: Steelers and Bengals pull off upsets

USATSI

It’s officially time for your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you’ve forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Will Brinson, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. In Week 11, things got a little weird: We went 2-3 against the spread, but 4-1 straight up. For the season, that means we’re now 24-26 ATS and 24-21 straight up.

OK, let’s get to the Week 11 picks.

If you’re new here, here’s how things work: I’ll give you one Week 11 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you’ll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 11 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.

Pete Prisco — Browns (+1) 23-16 over Saints. From Prisco: “The Saints are coming off a nice upset victory in Darren Rizzi’s first game as interim coach. The Browns are coming off a bye. Cleveland has the better defense, which will show up against Derek Carr. Jameis Winston will play well enough to win it in his return to New Orleans against his former team. Revenge game.” For the rest of Prisco’s Week 11 picks, be sure to click here.
Tyler Sullivan — Steelers (+3.5) 27-23 over Ravens. From Sullivan: “Mike Tomlin’s team has done a solid job against Jackson in his career. As a starter, the two-time NFL MVP is 1-3. Since becoming the starter, Russell Wilson has been able to unlock Pittsburgh’s downfield passing attack, which should come in handy against a Baltimore secondary that has been torched this season, surrendering a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game.” For the rest of Sullivan’s Week 11 picks, be sure to click here.
Will Brinson — Bills over Chiefs. From Brinson: “I’m backing Allen and Sean McDermott to get it done against Kansas City this week. The playoffs might be another story, but the Bills have had a lot of success against the Chiefs … in the regular season. Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes before the postseason rolls around in his career.” You can check out the rest of Brinson’s best bets for Week 11 here.
Jordan Dajani — Dolphins (-7.5) 22-13 over Raiders. From Dajani: “I think that Miami’s upset win over the Rams on Monday night could serve as a turning point for the Dolphins.” For the rest of Dajani’s Week 11 best bets, be sure to click here.
John Breech — Bengals (+1.5) 27-20 over Chargers. “Over the past three weeks, the Chargers defense has faced Spencer Rattler (Saints), Jameis Winston (Browns) and Will Levis (Titans). I feel like Joe Burrow is going to be a shock to their system.” For the rest of my Week 11 picks, be sure to click here.

For more Week 11 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here.

5. NFL bold predictions for Week 11: Titans shock Vikings

After giving you some bold predictions for Week 10 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 11. Last week, Garrett correctly predicted that the Patriots would shock the Bears, so you’ll definitely want to see what he has to say this week.

Let’s take a look at two of his bold predictions for Sunday:

1. Titans use stingy defense to upset Vikings. “Sam Darnold has nine turnovers in his past five games… and he now leads the NFL with 13 turnovers this season, and averages the third-most turnovers per game (1.11) in his career among active QBs with at least 50 starts. Darnold won’t get away with his turnover problem in Week 11 against Tennessee. The Titans will force the Vikings to feel the consequences of their sloppy play, sending them back home with a loss.”
2. Ravens light up the scoreboard against the Steelers defense. “The Ravens are going to win, and they are going to that by scoring at least 30 points on a Steelers defense that is allowing the second-fewest points per game in the entire NFL (16.2). Why? Because Jackson and running back Derrick Henry are on pace to rewrite the history books. This backfield cannot be stopped, even by the stout Steelers defense.”

Garrett made a total of five bold predictions for Week 11, and you check out all of them here.

It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Chiefs set to have a new kicker for the next few weeks. Harrison Butker has been placed on injured reserve due to a meniscus issue in his left knee. Since he’s on IR, that means Butker will have to miss at least four games, which means he won’t be able to return until Week 15 at the earliest. With Butker out, the Chiefs are expected to sign Spencer Shrader off the Jets‘ practice squad. You can read more about the Butker situation here.
Tyreek Hill might need surgery. Hill’s injured wrist might eventually need surgery. Hill said that surgery was mentioned as a possibility to fix it, but he shot down that option. “Surgery was brought up, and it was talked about, whenever I talked to a few of the doctors. But it’s my call at the end of the day, and my call is to stay out on the field,” he said. You can read more about the Dolphins receiver here.
Bears starter placed on injured reserve. Bears safety Jaquan Brisker was placed on IR this week related to an injury that happened all the way back in Week 5. Brisker suffered a concussion against the Panthers and was placed in concussion protocol, and after six weeks, he’s still showing symptoms, so the team decided to place him on IR. Brisker had started in all five games he played in before the injury.
Cowboys turning to Rico Dowdle. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has decided to scrap his running back-by-committee approach, and going forward, Dowdle will be the lead back. With the Cowboys season going down the drain, we’re only mentioning this for Fantasy purposes. You can read more about McCarthy’s decision here.