It’s finally here: the AFC’s battle of Goliaths between Patrick Mahomes and his 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs and Josh Allen and his 8-2 Buffalo Bills has arrived in Week 11.
These two squads are their conference’s top two seeds through 10 weeks, and the two teams’ combined 17-2 record is the seventh-highest combined record entering a game in Week 11 or later since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, per CBS Sports Research. This is a game worth the hyperbole and excitement. It’s also a unique matchup given the way Mahomes and Allen have played this season.
Mahomes’ Chiefs are 9-0, but it’s by the lowest point differential (+58) of any 9-0 team in NFL history. Their high-flying offense that was once led by Mahomes’ cannon of a right arm and the explosive Tyreek Hill is still efficient but instead moves at a geriatric pace in the prism of NFL football. Kansas City is 11th in the league in scoring offense (24.3) while leading the NFL in in plays per game (67.0), plays per drive (6.8) and time of possession (33:01). That success is powered by clutching up on third down as the offense leads the NFL in third down conversion rate (52%) this season.
No offense in modern NFL history has moved slower than Kansas City in 2024: the Chiefs are averaging the most time of possession per drive (3:22) and plays per drive (6.8) by any team as far back as such data has been tracked, since 1991 for time of possession per drive and since 2000 for plays per drive. Their recent success is led by aging playmakers in running back Kareem Hunt (age 29), wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (age 32) and tight end Travis Kelce (age 35). Those three account for 68% of the Chiefs yards from scrimmage in three games as teammates, and all three were top four fantasy football producers in point per reception (PPR) leagues at their respective positions seven years ago in 2017, per CBS Sports Research.
Mahomes has played as inefficient as he ever has in his eight-season career with his fewest touchdown passes (12) and worst passer rating (90.3) through nine games of a season in his career, but the Chiefs keep zombie-walking their way to wins.
THE NFL TODAY will be live from Buffalo on Sunday. Fans can join the crew in Lot 6 at Highmark Stadium starting at Noon ET on Nov. 17.
The matchup that will decide the game
Mahomes and the Chiefs offense are as consistent as it gets, and they will look essentially the same almost every week no matter what, for better or for worse. Here’s the deep dive on the side of the football that will determine the Week 11 outcome between the AFC’s two top teams: the Chiefs defense versus the Bills offense.
Kansas City blitzes on 36.9% of opponent dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL this season, and they have the most defensive total expected points added (41.45) when blitzing in the entire league this season, per TruMedia. On the flip side, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown for 705 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions vs. the blitz in 2024, which gives him the most passing touchdowns against the blitz in the entire league this season, per NFL Pro Insights.
A primary reason Allen has been elite against the blitz is because he altered his play style. Instead of playing like a deep ball hunting scrambler, he has thrown the ball quicker and shorter than ever before. That has resulted in him starting 2024 on a seven-game streak without an interception, the longest streak without an interception by a Bills starting quarterback ever. Allen has only six turnovers in 10 games this season after having 14 in his first 10 games of 2023. It’s also worth noting Buffalo’s stability up front: they are only one of two teams to have the same offensive line starting five in every game of 2024, along with the San Francisco 49ers per CBS Sports Research, and they have the most offensive snaps played of any five-man offensive line combination. The lineup of left tackle Dion Dawkins, left guard David Edwards, center Connor McGovern, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown has 547 offensive snaps together.
| Josh Allen This Season | Career Rank | |
|---|---|---|
Average Pass Length (Yards) | 7.7 | Shortest |
Average Time To Throw | 2.84 | Quickest |
Turnover/Game | 0.6 | Fewest |
Rush YPG | 26.1 | Fewest |
That change in play style plus offensive line stability is why Allen can and will stay ahead of the Chiefs four-time Super Bowl champion defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and his trademark blitz schemes to guide the Bills to narrow 27-24 home win in Week 11.
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Author: Garrett Podell
November 14, 2024 | 10:10 am
