Prisco’s Week 11 NFL picks: Steelers upset Ravens, Bills knock off Chiefs and Eagles take control of NFC East

Just when you think you might be getting it going picking these NFL games, the league reminds you that you don’t have any idea.

That happened to me last week. After a solid Week 9, Week 10 went into the toilet. I was 5-9 against the spread and 7-7 straight-up. That drops my season ATS record to 69-80-3 and my straight-up record to 89-63.

It’s time to get it going. This league has been tough to figure out this year, but I feel like a good week is coming. There are a lot of big games this week, a great slate in fact, so let’s hope that helps turn around my miserable ways here picking games.

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the latest Caesars promo to get in the game.

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)

The Eagles have righted things on both sides of the ball. The offense has come alive. The Commanders are coming off a tough loss to the Steelers. Rookie Jayden Daniels has played well, but on the short week this is a tough ask. The Eagles win it.  

Pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 24

Bonus: SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein, who is on a 33-15-1 roll betting Commanders games, is leaning under for this prime-time matchup. To see which team he’s backing, head on over to SportsLine.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Packers are coming off a bye week and the Bears look like they need one. They are having problems scoring points and the offense is disjointed. How much can firing the coordinator help? Not enough. The Packers needed the bye to get Jordan Love healthier. He is and it shows up. Packers take it over a spiraling Bears team. 

Pick: Packers 29, Bears 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This has all the makings of a blowout. The Lions are home after two road victories, while the lifeless Jaguars are out on the road after two home losses. The Lions offense was off last week, but the Jaguars defense is the perfect way to get back on track. This is ugly. 

Pick: Lions 38, Jaguars 10

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a long trip for the Raiders, but they are off a bye. The Dolphins are playing on a short week off a West Coast game. That’s tough. Miami’s defense was outstanding against the Rams on Monday night, and that will carry over here. But the Raiders will hang around. 

Pick: Dolphins 23, Raiders 19

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Rams seemed uneven on offense in losing to the Dolphins on Monday night. Their lack of speed showed up. The Patriots seem to be growing each week offensively with Drake Maye. I look for the Patriots to hang around in this game and keep it close. Really close. 

Pick: Rams 24, Patriots 23

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Saints are coming off a nice upset victory in Darren Rizzi’s first game as interim coach. The Browns are coming off a bye. Cleveland has the better defense, which will show up against Derek Carr. Jameis Winston will play well enough to win it in his return to New Orleans against his former team. Revenge game. 

Pick: Browns 23, Saints 16

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is an enormous game for first place in the AFC North. The Ravens have had defensive issues for a long time, which could be a problem in this one. The Steelers are the better defensive team, and they will control Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense just a little. Both teams will score, but the Steelers will win it late on a Chris Boswell field goal. 

Pick: Steelers 30, Ravens 27

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Vikings are out on the road for a second straight week and didn’t look good last week against the Jaguars, but found a way to win. Sam Darnold has not been good the past few weeks. The Titans are playing for the future, but they will show up and play well here. Look for a close game with the Vikings winning it late.

Pick: Vikings 23, Titans 20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Jets have looked awful and their season is basically over with one more loss. They Colts have lost three straight and the Joe Flacco move hasn’t paid off. The Jets looked like they quit last week, but I think they show some fight here. They stay alive. 

Pick: Jets 23, Colts 17

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

This is a second straight road game for the Falcons, who lost to the Saints last week. Denver is back home after losing two on the road. Kirk Cousins and the offense didn’t do enough last week, and this Denver defense is better than the Saints. That matters. The Broncos win it. 

Pick: Broncos 24, Falcons 20

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Seahawks are coming off a bye, while the 49ers are off a tough victory at Tampa. The 49ers are getting healthier, which again makes them a Super Bowl contender. They blew out the Seahawks in the first meeting a few weeks ago. That will be the same formula here as the 49ers offense rolls against a so-so Seattle defense.

Pick: 49ers 30, Seahawks 17

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model, which is up more than $7,000 on NFL picks since its inception, shows a lot of value on one team covering the spread. To see who that club is, check out SportsLine.

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is the game of the week, with the Bills trying to beat their nemesis and the Chiefs trying to stay undefeated. The Chiefs haven’t looked great on offense this season, while the Bills and Josh Allen have most of the time. This is one of those games Allen and the Buffalo offense will outplay the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Bills win it. 

Pick: Bills 27. Chiefs 23

Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model is also picking the Bills to cover as part of its five-game parlay made up of the strongest spread picks of the week. Check out the other legs of the parlay, here.

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)

The highlight here will be Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing game against the Chargers’ top-ranked defense. Burrow can score on anybody, so it comes down to Justin Herbert against the Bengals defense. That edge goes to the Chargers. Herbert wins a shootout. 

Pick: Chargers 31, Bengals 28

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo try for free) 

The Cowboys look cooked, especially without Dak Prescott. But the Texans haven’t looked great, either. They have lost two straight. I think they will find a way to win this one, but it’s close as the Cowboys show some pride on Monday night. 

Pick: Texans 27, Cowboys 23