Things can change in the blink of an eye in the NFL. Just ask the Miami Dolphins, who went from last to second place in the AFC East following Monday night’s win over the Los Angeles Rams.
The New England Patriots have reluctantly taken the Dolphins’ spot as the East’s last-place team. They join seven other teams who are currently in last place in their respective divisions as we enter Week 11 of the NFL’s regular season.
While the Dolphins have quickly gotten themselves off the mat, things may take a little longer for the NFL’s eight current last-place teams. With that in mind, here’s a ranking of each last-place team based on long-term outlook.
8. Cleveland Browns (2-7)
Deshaun Watson’s contract is Cleveland’s biggest hurdle. The team would incur a dead-cap hit of nearly $73 million if they were to release Watson after June 1 of next year. That’s bad, but not as bad as the $85 million hit the Broncos took when they released Russell Wilson this past offseason. That decision, while costly, has proven to have worked out for both Denver and Wilson, who has enjoyed a career resurgence in Pittsburgh. The Browns should strongly consider following a similar path.
With or without Watson, the Browns’ roster needs significant upgrades, especially at the skill positions now that Amari Cooper has been traded. The Browns would be wise to add young faces to an offensive line that has dealt with injuries all year. Cleveland’s defensive line also needs better players to help complement Myles Garrett. This issue was magnified with the recent trade of Za’Darius Smith to the Lions.
This year has been bad, but the Browns are just a year removed from an 11-6 season and a playoff berth. The Browns have a good secondary, one of the league’s best defensive players in Garrett, a solid offensive line (when healthy) and one of the league’s best backs in Nick Chubb (also, when healthy). They also have two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski running the operation.
That being said, the Browns play in one of the NFL’s hardest divisions (the AFC North) that doesn’t appear to be getting any easier anytime soon. The Browns will have to have a stellar offseason if they are going to do something next year. Fortunately, Cleveland currently has nine picks in this year’s draft, including a first-round pick for the first time since 2021.
7. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
The Raiders are a mess, but if there are positives, it’s that they have the means to make changes if they desire to do so. Based on their recent actions (trading Davante Adams and firing several assistants), it appears owner Mark Davis is intent on making them.
Antonio Pierce isn’t expected to be retained this offseason. The Raiders will likely replace him with one of the top-available candidates, which include Bill Belichick and Mike Vrabel. Rest assured that new Raiders minority owner Tom Brady will place a call to his former coach as soon as Las Vegas’ head coaching position becomes vacant.
From a personnel standpoint, the Raiders will surely look to improve their quarterback situation, which means that they will either draft a quarterback early or acquire a proven veteran (or both). The Raiders have historically had success with veteran quarterbacks who struggled in prior stops (see Jim Plunkett and Rich Gannon), so it’s possible Davis will go that route once more.
Las Vegas has some talent to build around, specifically pass rusher Maxx Crosby and rookie tight end Brock Bowers. This offseason, the Raiders need to take full advantage of their projected $108 million in salary cap space.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
Jacksonville isn’t as bad as its record would indicate. Of its eight losses, six have come in one-score games. This past Sunday, the Jaguars held the Vikings to 12 points, but Jacksonville’s offense was held to just seven points with backup Mac Jones running the offense.
Jacksonville has something few other last-place teams possess: a young franchise quarterback whose better days are still ahead of him. This hasn’t been a good year for Trevor Lawrence, but a good chunk of his struggles can be attributed to a struggling offensive line that will undoubtedly receive a refresh this offseason. The loss of top wideout Christian Kirk due to a season-ending injury didn’t help Lawrence, either.
The Jaguars have a nice collection of young skill players, led by rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. and running backs Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne. Jacksonville’s defense has some good young defenders, too, most notably defensive ends Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen along with cornerback Tyson Campbell.
Jacksonville has nine picks in the upcoming draft that will allow them to fill most of its current holes. But who will be their head coach? Doug Pederson is undoubtedly on the hot seat as his team has compiled a 3-13 record over its last 16 games. The Jaguars need to figure out who will lead them before they can make moves towards the future.
5. New England Patriots (3-7)
As mentioned earlier, the Patriots fell into last place Monday night despite their impressive 19-3 win over the Chicago Bears this past Sunday. New England has actually won two of its last three games following a 1-6 start.
Somewhat quietly, the Patriots have received inspired play as of late from rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who over his last two starts has completed 66.7% of his throws while making plays inside and outside of the pocket. Maye’s improved play has given Patriots fans reason for optimism.
The Patriots will spend the offseason building a stronger supporting cast around their new quarterback. Defensively, New England has some solid building blocks, led by defensive ends Keion White and Deatrich Wise Jr. and cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
New England’s rebuild will take some time, but the Patriots have the resources to make a jump in 2025. They’ll have an estimated $96.7 million in cap space next offseason and 17 total picks over the next two drafts.
4. Carolina Panthers (3-7)
What a difference a few wins can make. Two weeks ago, the Panthers would have probably taken the top spot on this list (which isn’t a good thing). But two wins (over albeit bad teams) have made the Panthers’ future prospects brighter.
Bryce Young’s performances in those games are a big reason for said optimism. While he didn’t light up the stat sheet, Young looked confident and much more comfortable running head coach Dave Canales’ offense. It appears the game is starting to slow down for the former No. 1 overall pick. His continued growth is something to watch during the season’s final two months.
Carolina’s positive vibes also include the recent contract extension of running back Chuba Hubbard, who celebrated his new deal by rushing for 153 yards and a score in Sunday’s win over the Giants.
There’s a lot of things the Panthers need to improve upon, but they have several good pieces already in place, nearly $34 million in projected cap space for next year, 11 picks in the upcoming draft and a winnable division to boot.
3. New York Giants (2-8)
Another year where we’re already discussing the New York Giants’ future. Despite the team’s current state, the Giants are reportedly going to exert patience with head coach Brian Daboll, who will undoubtedly shake things up this offseason, starting with the quarterback.
It hasn’t been all his fault, but Daniel Jones has failed to perform up to his status as a former No. 6 overall pick. Expect the Giants to aggressively look for his successor this offseason. Whomever that is will take over an offense that has some good young playmakers that include rookie Malik Nabers, fellow wideout Wan’Dale Robinson and rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Defensively, Big Blue has several studs, most notably defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence and outside linebackers Brian Burns and Azeez Ojulari. The secondary hasn’t made a lot of splash plays, but it is currently seventh in the league in fewest passing yards allowed. Conversely, the Giants’ run defense needs major help, as it is currently last in the NFL in average yards per carry permitted.
Offensive line is one of the Giants’ biggest areas of need. Fortunately, New York has the projected cap space ($42.3 million) and draft picks (eight) to address this. Above all, they’re going to have to figure out their quarterback situation.
2. Seattle Seahawks (4-5)
Seattle surged out to a 3-0 start, but is now 4-5 following its Week 9 overtime loss to the division rival Los Angeles Rams. The team’s -7 turnover ratio is a big reason for its current struggles. Playing in one of the league’s toughest divisions doesn’t help, either.
Like a lot of other last-place teams, Seattle has talent at the skill positions, especially at receiver with DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the way. But similar to other last-place teams, the Seahawks need reinforcements on the offensive line and on defense, particularly in run support.
Quarterback is also a question … sort of. Geno Smith led the NFL in passing most of the season’s first half, but he’s currently leading the league with 11 interceptions. It’ll be interesting to see what the Seahawks do at quarterback this offseason. Smith is entering the final year of his contract, so one would think Seattle would bring in some sort of competition, either in the form of a rookie or another veteran looking for a fresh start.
Their roster is better than most last-place teams, but Seattle’s salary cap situation (it is currently in the red as far as projected 2025 cap space), along with the fact that it plays in the extremely difficult NFC West division, puts a damper on first-year head coach Mike Macdonald’s future prospects.
1. Chicago Bears (4-5)
Chicago started this year with a promising 4-2 start, but an 0-3 slide has rekindled talks of Matt Eberflus’ likely offseason departure. Eberflus’ handling of Caleb Williams has only intensified those talks. The lasting image from Sunday’s ugly loss to the Patriots was the sight of a distraught Williams getting helped to his feet by a Pats defender near the end of the game.
Really, this season was about developing Williams and making tangible progress towards the future. That hasn’t happened, and that will likely lead to a coaching change. But that doesn’t mean things are all doom and gloom for Chicago.
Williams has shown promise when he has received adequate protection. Offensive line remains an issue that the Bears will surely address this offseason, which should significantly aid Williams in 2025.
It’s not the Monsters of the Midway, but Chicago’s defense has been pretty stellar so far. Despite not getting a ton of support from their offense, the Bears’ defense is currently seventh in the NFL in points allowed, seventh in third-down efficiency and first in red-zone efficiency.
Making the Bears’ future more promising is their projected $72.5 million in available cap space in 2025 and eight draft picks that includes four in the first three rounds. Chicago’s tough division and uncertain coaching situation are its two biggest question marks regarding its future.
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Author: Bryan DeArdo
November 12, 2024 | 7:06 pm
