NFL odds, Week 11 lines, ATS predictions, game picks, times, tips: Model simulates all games 10,000 times

The Week 11 NFL odds give us the biggest NFL spreads of the 2024 NFL season, as the Lions are 13-point home favorites over the Jaguars. Despite the teams being in opposite ends of the NFL standings, their against-the-spread (ATS) success is closer than you think. Detroit has covered seven times this year, with the Jaguars covering six times, which could make this contest harder to make Week 11 NFL picks for.

Other NFL matchups this week include Vikings vs. Titans (+5.5), which features a Minnesota team that is 6-3 ATS versus a Tennessee squad that has covered just once this season. Also, Jets vs. Colts (+4) matches up New York’s 3-7 ATS record versus Indy’s 7-3 mark. Digging even deeper into how teams perform at home versus on the road, or as favorites as opposed to being underdogs, is another approach to utilize to assist with Week 11 NFL bets. All of the Week 11 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 11 NFL picks now. Plus, get the model’s full Week 11 NFL score predictions here.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 11 NFL odds and NFL betting lines and locked in betting picks for every NFL matchup. You can find them all here.

Thursday, Nov. 14

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 49)

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: Amazon Prime

The Eagles are 5-1 straight-up versus Washington over their last six meetings, however, Philly has only covered in one of those six matchups (1-3-2 ATS). The Eagles are the only NFL team that ranks in the top 10 of the four major stats of scoring offense, yards gained, scoring defense and yards allowed.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says one side of the total easily hits in nearly 60% of simulations, with six points to spare. See which side of the total is a must-back here.

Sunday, Nov. 17

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+6, 41)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

The Bears have not scored a touchdown in 23 straight offensive drives and fired their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, this week. Caleb Williams has been sacked a league-high 38 times — including 15 over the last two weeks alone — while Jordan Love has thrown an NFL-high 10 interceptions, despite playing in just six full games.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, projects 90-plus scrimmage yards for multiple players, as well as nearly six combined sacks plus takeaways for one defense. See the NFL projections here.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-13, 47)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

The 13-point spread is the largest of any game this season. Jacksonville has covered in four straight games but has lost three straight contests straight-up. Detroit just saw its six-game cover streak end last week, but it has won each of those seven games outright for its longest win streak since nine in a row from 2010-11.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one side of the total hits almost 60% of the time. See which side it is right here.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 45.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

The Raiders are coming off a bye, while Miami has a short week after winning on Monday night. However, the Dolphins are 5-0 ATS when at a rest disadvantage since 2022. Vegas, meanwhile, has covered just three times over its last 10 games when it has a rest advantage.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects one quarterback to have a nearly 100% chance of throwing an interception. See more NFL projections here.

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (+4.5, 43.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Los Angeles is coming off a Monday night defeat, but the Patriots are a league-worst 2-8-1 ATS with a rest advantage since 2020. Matthew Stafford has played at New England just once over his career (2014), and he posted a career-worst 39.14 completion percentage in a 34-9 loss while with Detroit.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations in an A-rated pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1, 44.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

New Orleans snapped a seven-game losing streak on Sunday, also ending a five-game ATS losing skid. Jameis Winston, who spent the previous four seasons with the Saints, has the exact same TD:INT as Deshaun Watson has this season (5:3), despite having 117 fewer pass attempts.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says one side of spread in almost 70% of simulations in an A-rated pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5, 48.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

Over the last 20 matchups between these AFC North rivals, the spread record is even at 9-9-2. This season, Baltimore has the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 1 total offense. Pittsburgh counters with the league’s No. 2 scoring defense and holds opposing quarterbacks to just 6.8 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the NFL.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, projects one team to allow 10 more points than its season average, and one team to fail to rush for 100 yards. See the NFL projections here.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans (+5.5, 39.5)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

Tennessee is a league-worst 1-8 ATS in 2024, failing to cover in each of its last five games. As for Minnesota, it is coming off a 12-7 victory over Jacksonville in which it had three giveaways and zero touchdowns. NFL teams had lost 195 straight games with at least three turnovers and no touchdowns prior to the Vikings’ win.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says one team’s defense will produce more fantasy points than every running back, receiver or tight end in the game. See the NFL projections here.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5, 44)

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

After starting the year 7-1 ATS, the Colts have failed to cover in their last two, with Joe Flacco having six turnovers over those two games. Aaron Rodgers (40) and Flacco (39) are the two oldest quarterbacks in the NFL, and the former has lost three straight games to the Colts — all while with Green Bay — despite having a 3:1 TD:INT in each of those three games. 

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, projects over 10 combined turnovers plus sacks, which could be beneficial for NFL prop bets. See more NFL projections here.

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 44)

Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

Denver (3-0) is the only team undefeated ATS as a favorite this season, but the Broncos have yet to defeat a team with a winning record in 2024, going 0-4 straight-up. The Over is 5-1 for the Broncos over their last six games overall, while Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins has a 13:1 TD:INT over his career versus Sean Payton-coached teams.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says one side of the total hits in well over 50% of simulations. See which side it is right here.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 50.5)

Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Channel: FOX

San Francisco has won six straight meetings with the Seahawks, going 5-1 ATS over that span. Over their last three games of the 2024 NFL season, the Under is a perfect 3-0 for both teams. Christian McCaffrey had 107 scrimmage yards in his season debut last week, while D.K. Metcalf (knee) is shaping up to be a game-time decision after missing the last two games.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time in an A-rated pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)

Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS/Paramount+

Patrick Mahomes has the best straight-up record (11-3), ATS record (12-1) and best passer rating (108.3) by any QB as an underdog since 1970 (amongst 323 QBs with 10-plus starts as an underdog). This will be the eighth meeting between Mahomes and Josh Allen, including the postseason, with Mahomes holding the 4-3 edge. However, Allen has won three straight regular-season contests versus Mahomes.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which enters Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 17-7 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year, says one side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations in an A-rated pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.

Sunday Night Football: Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 46.5)

Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC

Both teams are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, and both also have six against-the-spread victories this season. The Chargers have won the last three meetings with the Bengals, including the only matchup between Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, a 41-22 road victory for Los Angeles in 2021.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, is backing one team on the money line in well over 60% of simulations in an A-rated pick. Get the model’s coveted A-rated pick here.

Monday, Nov. 18

Monday Night Football: Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 42)

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: ABC/ESPN

Cooper Rush will remain as starter for Dallas after passing for just 45 yards across 23 attempts in his last start. Dallas is the first team in NFL history to trail by 20-plus points in five straight home games, following Sunday’s 34-6 defeat to Philadelphia. However, the Cowboys are undefeated at home all-time versus Houston (3-0), and the Texans’ blew a 17-point lead in last week’s loss to Detroit, which is the second-largest blown lead in the 2024 NFL season.

Model pick: The SportsLine model, which is on a 197-136 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 51-29 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022, says two players approach 100 scrimmage yards, while another nears 80 total yards. See who they are right here.