NFL Week 10 overreactions: Chiefs not best in AFC? Cowboys next to fire HC? Sam Darnold a problem for Vikings?

Week 10 of the NFL tried to pull off some significant upsets, making the start of the second half of the 2024 regular season even more pivotal for the contenders. The Denver Broncos had the Kansas City Chiefs on the ropes, while the Jacksonville Jaguars did their best to beat the highly favored Minnesota Vikings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers survived a showdown with the Washington Commanders and the New Orleans Saints kicked off the post-Dennis Allen era with a huge victory over the division-leading Atlanta Falcons. The 1 ET slate certainly had its share of close calls in Week 10. 

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles crushed the Dallas Cowboys and the Arizona Cardinals essentially ended the New York Jets season in the 4 ET slate. The Los Angeles Chargers had a statement win as well. 

There were plenty of overreactions to go around after the Sunday afternoon slate. Which are overreactions and which are reality? Let’s dive in.

Best team in AFC isn’t Chiefs

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Kansas City just keeps finding ways to win football games, even when a loss appears to be staring the Chiefs in the face. Broncos kicker Wil Lutz had a 35-yard field goal attempt that — if converted — would have been one of the biggest upsets of the season. Instead, Leo Chenal blocked the chip shot and the Chiefs improved to 9-0, surviving an ugly performance against one of the NFL’s top defenses. 

Are the Chiefs as good as their unbeaten record indicates? Probably not, but Kansas City is the best team in the AFC. The Chiefs are a second-half team anyway, which has been a staple of Andy Reid teams for over two decades. Patrick Mahomes is also starting to find his stride in the passing game as well, not having a turnover on Sunday. 

The Chiefs can solidify their stranglehold on the AFC in 2024 next week with a win over the Bills. 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

This is a big week for the Commanders, facing the Steelers at home followed by the Eagles on the road — all in a span of five days. Washington didn’t have a must-win game against Pittsburgh, but the Commanders could have used that win to put pressure on the Eagles. 

Instead, the Commanders lost, meaning they’ve lost the NFC East lead since the Eagles beat the Cowboys. The Eagles could gain two games on the Commanders in five days with a win Thursday, and lead the NFC East by two games in the loss column.

Washington and Philadelphia play each other twice over the next six weeks. Thursday isn’t a must-win game for the Commanders, but they’ll have some ground to make up if they do lose to the Eagles. Fortunately, the Commanders have a favorable schedule until Week 16 (when they host the Eagles). Sunday’s win against Pittsburgh could have went a long way in Washington’s favor. 

Vikings need to worry about Darnold rest of way

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Sam Darnold just hasn’t been the same quarterback since the Vikings’ 5-0 start. The completion percentage is still high (74.2%), but the turnovers are significantly up. Darnold has thrown six interceptions in the four games since that 5-0 start — to only six touchdown passes — and has a 94.5 passer rating. 

The numbers aren’t bad, but the turnovers are reminiscent of the Darnold of old. Even though the Vikings have won their last two games, Darnold has thrown five interceptions in that stretch against two poor teams in the Colts and Jaguars. 

The Vikings are a good team and are winning games in spite of Darnold’s turnovers (he had 11 touchdowns to four interceptions in the first five games). Minnesota is a playoff team, but the Vikings aren’t an NFC title contender if Darnold keeps playing this way. 

Cowboys’ McCarthy will be next head coach fired

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

While Jerry Jones could absolutely pull the trigger on McCarthy’s tenure after the Cowboys’ blowout loss to the Eagles (Dallas is now 3-6), he likely isn’t the next head coach to get fired. Matt Eberflus’ job is on thin ice as well after the Chicago bears scored just three points in an ugly loss to the New England Patriots. The Bears have not scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks; the last time they scored one was the possession prior to the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary throw (and haven’t won since). 

McCarthy’s fate is likely sealed in Dallas, but that’s on Jerry Jones for doing next to nothing this offseason to improve the roster. Dak Prescott is expected to miss the rest of the season and Jones never prepared to build a good roster around him for 2024. Dallas is seeing the result of what happens when Prescott is out of the equation.

While it wouldn’t be shocking if the Cowboys fired McCarthy this week, Eberflus is also hanging on for dear life with the Bears. Both could be unemployed by the end of the week. Just remember McCarthy’s team isn’t healthy while Eberflus has enough of a failure size with different coaches and quarterbacks to justify moving on from him. 

Hurts deserves to be in MVP conversation

Overreaction or reality: Reality

It could be too early to place Jalen Hurts with names like Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley in the MVP conversation — but the Eagles quarterback is making his case. Hurts finished with two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in Sunday’s blowout win over the Cowboys, compiling a 115.0 passer rating.

Since Week 6, Hurts has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Hurts has completed 71.8% of his passes for 1,046 yards with eight touchdowns to one interception for a 126.1 passer rating (10.2 yards per attempt). Hurts also has eight rushing touchdowns in that stretch. That’s 16 touchdowns in five games to just two giveaways. 

Is Hurts the MVP favorite? Absolutely not. He’s making a case to be in that conversation now, playing the best football of his career. 

Sunday’s win over Buccaneers saved 49ers season

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The 49ers are in the hunt for a playoff berth, thanks to their narrow victory over the Buccaneers. Could the 49ers have afforded to lose to the Buccaneers and still make the playoffs? Yes, but their goal of making the postseason would have been significantly harder. 

Coming out of the bye and losing wouldn’t have been ideal, but no team has pulled away in the NFC West. The Rams are 4-4 heading into their game Monday night and the Seahawks are 4-5 heading into the bye week. The Cardinals did beat the 49ers earlier this season and have been forcing San Francisco to keep pace since that victory. 

San Francisco has a brutal schedule coming up with Seattle (home), Green Bay (road) and Buffalo (road). This is the game the 49ers just had to win, no matter the cost. They were able to accomplish that and put the pressure on the Cardinals in the process (and the Cardinals won on Sunday). The 49ers just have to keep pace with the Cardinals during this brutal stretch.

Simply put, they had to win Sunday. 

Daboll’s job as not as safe as Giants owner claims

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Giants owner John Mara said a few weeks ago general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll would return in 2025 — no matter how much the Giants were struggling. The Giants have since lost two games since the “vote of confidence,” both by one score to the Commanders and Panthers. 

Sunday’s loss to the Panthers was a tell-tale sign things aren’t getting better in New York. Daniel Jones just isn’t a good quarterback. Daboll is 8-19 since taking the Giants to the playoffs in his first year as a head coach. Jones has 10 touchdowns to 13 interceptions with a 76.6 rating in 16 starts (5.9 yards per attempt) since the start of last year.

Jones’ future in New York is essentially sealed. If the Giants can’t win games, Daboll’s time in New York may be over, too. Mara may be taking back what he said. 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

If the Colts benched Anthony Richardson one week for taking himself out of the game, it’s one thing. Benching him for the season in favor of Joe Flacco after just 10 career games played was ludicrous. All for a potential playoff run with 39-year-old Joe Flacco, who hasn’t played well in the two starts since replacing Richardson.

Flacco has thrown two touchdowns to four interceptions in his two starts (72.7 rating), while getting sacked 10 times. The Colts haven’t been able to get explosive plays due to Flacco being unable to extend the play. The result is an 0-2 record and a 16.5 points per game, turning a 4-4 start into a 4-6 mark. 

The Colts were mediocre to begin with, but they could have let Richardson grow as they tried to make a playoff push with him. Instead, they decided to allow their franchise to ruin their 22-year-old quarterback’s confidence and essentially start over. Bad organizations continue to make bad decisions.