NFL Week 10 picks, odds, best bets: Lamar Jackson runs over Bengals, Christian McCaffrey has triumphant return

So we went 2-3 for my top-five picks and 9-6 overall against the spread in Week 9. We did go 12-3 straight up, which was pretty nice. We cashed in with the New York Jets on Halloween, but Jameis Winston failed us, and so did the New Orleans Saints. Goodbye Dennis Allen. 

This week in the NFL, we have Jayden Daniels vs. Russell Wilson, the Dallas Cowboys trying their luck without Dak Prescott and Jared Goff facing C.J. Stroud on “Sunday Night Football.” If you haven’t yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can make money, too. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Top-five picks ATS record: 22-22-1
Overall ATS record: 61-74-3
Straight up record: 86-52

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

The Ravens have won three straight games against the Bengals, and five out of the last six home games. Lamar Jackson is 9-1 vs. Cincinnati and has 751 career rushing yards, which are the second-most by a quarterback against a single opponent since 1948. This Ravens offense has 42 straight 100-yard rushing games. That’s one shy of tying the NFL record! They are averaging 7.1 yards per play and 5.9 yards per rush this season. Both would be NFL records.

There are legitimate concerns about the Ravens pass defense, but Tee Higgins is doubtful to play. Remember, he caught nine passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens in Cincy’s three-point overtime loss last month. Offensive tackle Orlando Brown is also questionable against his former team, while B.J. Hill is questionable as well. 

The Ravens are 6-1 SU and ATS in prime time since 2023. I can’t get that dominant, 35-10 victory over the Buffalo Bills back in September out of my head, so give me Baltimore. 

The pick: Ravens -6
Projected score: Ravens 30-23

Lamar Jackson is +150 to score a rushing TD. Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

The 49ers are just poised for a big run soon, right? Not only is Christian McCaffrey expected back, but this team is an NFL-best 23-4 in the second half of the season since 2021. The Bucs have struggled without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the lineup, having lost three straight games overall. Now, they have to host San Francisco on a short week?

This Bucs defense has gone five straight games allowing 27 points, which is tied for the second-longest streak in team HISTORY. Tampa Bay is 3-10 ATS at home vs. teams .500 or above since 2022, so give me San Francisco.

The pick: 49ers -6
Projected score: 49ers 27-20

Will McCaffrey score in his first game back? Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

I can understand wanting to take the Saints after the firing of head coach Dennis Allen, but what is there to like about New Orleans in this spot other than playing at home? The Falcons defeated the Saints last time around, 26-24. Kirk Cousins threw for zero touchdowns and an interception, while Bijan Robinson rushed just seven times for 28 yards. Robinson has now gone four straight games with at least 100 scrimmage yards, including a season-high 145 scrimmage yards last week against the Cowboys. 

Cousins now owns the highest passer rating (145.4) in a two-game span in Falcons history. Yes, I’m keeping an eye on the Drake London injury, but the Falcons are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in divisional games this season. 

The pick: Falcons -3.5
Projected score: Falcons 30-20

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

I would love to predict that Jim Harbaugh will win a Super Bowl the year after winning a College Football Playoff National Championship, but I’m not there yet. Still, the Chargers are an underrated team we aren’t talking about enough. Jesse Minter’s defense ranks first in points allowed per game with 12.6, and Justin Herbert has thrown 10 touchdowns compared to just one interception this season. His passing yards numbers have gone up recently too, as he’s averaging 286.8 passing yards per game over the last four contests, compared to 144.5 passing yards per game in his first four outings. 

The Titans got a win vs. the New England Patriots last week, but still didn’t cover the spread. They also lost center Lloyd Cushenberry III and safety Quandre Diggs to season-ending injuries, which are pretty big hits. We don’t know who will start at quarterback, but Tennessee is a league-worst 1-7 ATS this year. 

The pick: Chargers -7.5
Projected score: Chargers 24-13

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)

I’ll play on the hook, but don’t tell Mr. Krabs. It was impressive to see the Lions go to Lambeau Field in their first outdoors game of the year and defeat the Green Bay Packers in the wind and rain, dominating from beginning to end. Are they the best team in the NFL right now? Nico Collins does have a chance to return to the lineup this week, but man, the Texans looked terrible vs. the Jets. The offensive line struggled, the secondary struggled, Stroud struggled. 

This game is incredibly important in my opinion. It could be where the “general public” starts questioning the Texans pretty heavily, while the Lions hype takes off to new heights. I’ll ride with the 7-1 ATS team compared to the 3-6 ATS team. 

The pick: Lions -3.5
Projected score: Lions 35-27

Other Week 10 picks