2024 NFL playoff picture: Rams still alive as NFC West projections swing on overtime win against Seahawks

There’s a fine line between winning and losing in the NFL, and on Sunday against the rival Seahawks, the Los Angeles Rams crossed that line multiple times in a roller-coaster affair.

First they fell behind 13-3. Then they went up 20-13, taking the lead on a 103-yard interception return. Then they allowed a game-tying touchdown with less than a minute remaining in regulation and were just 16 yards away from losing in overtime before getting a crucial fourth-down stop.

In the end, Los Angeles ended up on the right side of the fine line when receiver Demarcus Robinson made a one-handed catch of a Matthew Stafford pass for a 39-yard, game-winning touchdown in overtime.

The sweat had not yet dried on the Rams’ uniforms when coach Sean McVay made his postgame speech in the team’s joyous locker room.

“That was [expletive] crazy!” he said.

That one outcome had massive implications on the playoff chances of both the Rams and Seahawks. Entering Week 10 of the NFL season, the Cardinals (5-4) lead the air-tight NFC West. Los Angeles (4-4) and San Francisco are tied for second in the division, but the Rams currently hold the tiebreaker. The Seahawks (4-5) sit in the basement but are just one game behind division-leading Arizona.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, the Rams have a 21.7% chance of making the playoffs. However, had they lost the game on Sunday, their postseason chances would be on life support, at 6.0%.

Seattle, meanwhile, suffered the opposite effect. The Seahawks have just a 17.7% chance of reaching the postseason, the worst in the division. But had they won on Sunday, they would have a 39.1% chance, second behind the 49ers (55.9%).

Interestingly, the model gives San Francisco a better chance than Arizona (28.0%) to make the playoffs despite the Cardinals leading the division.

The Rams, meanwhile, still have much work to do, but they have won three straight games since coming out of their bye week.

“We’re going to continue to try to get better, but I’m really proud of the way this group is finding a way to get it done in different ways,” McVay said on Sunday. “To be able to get three in a row is really hard in this league, and we know we’re going to have a great challenge with our next game on Monday night.”

As for the Rams’ Week 10 game on Monday against the Dolphins, the SportsLine Projection Model is predicting a close game. However, that game isn’t the one with an A-grade spread pick based on model simulations for Week 10. You can find those top-tier Week 10 NFL picks at SportsLine.