The trade deadline has come and gone, and we’ve crossed the midway point of the 2024 regular season in the NFL. With both of those mile markers in the rearview mirror, we have a solid sense of the viable contenders throughout the league and the roster they’ll have headed down the stretch run.
Of course, the light at the end of this tunnel is booking a trip to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. As we turn the page to the regular season’s second act, now is a good moment to take a snapshot of where teams stand in relation to how they are positioned to reach the big game.
One team — and division, for that matter — that is omitted from this top-10 list at the moment is the club that represented the NFC in the Super Bowl a season ago in the San Francisco 49ers. Again, this is about how well a team is positioned to make a run. At the moment, it’s an uphill climb for Kyle Shanahan’s team entering Week 10 and the second half of the year. In all, the entire division is too muddled to say that any team has a clear path to a Super Bowl run at the moment.
At 4-4, the Niners are currently third in the NFC West and have lost pivotal tie-breaking games to the Arizona Cardinals (5-4) and Los Angeles Rams (4-4). Sure, they should be getting healthier with the imminent return of Christian McCaffrey, but they also own the sixth-toughest remaining schedule in the league. On the flip side, Arizona and L.A. have some of the easiest remaining schedules. Meanwhile, other teams in the NFC have an even larger lead in a potential wild-card race, so that avenue to a playoff berth and subsequent Super Bowl run is just as tough, if not tougher.
Could they pull it off? Absolutely. But we’re talking about teams in relation to how they are positioned in the here and now. With those parameters laid out, let’s jump in.
In my book, the Lions are in a tier by themselves in the NFC. At 7-1, they are in current position to claim the No. 1 seed in the conference and the first-round bye that comes with it. They are on a six-game winning streak, which includes key road wins against the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers that have them on the inside track of winning the NFC North. That creates a clear path through Ford Field to the Super Bowl if they hold this position.
While the offense is arguably the most efficient in the league and has few holes, the defense is the big question surrounding their chances at making a run, particularly after losing star pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson for the year. The team cushioned that loss by trading for Za’Darius Smith at the deadline.
Even with the Chiefs slotted at No. 2 on this list, it feels like a slight. Really, it’s a testament to other teams in the AFC being a more dangerous threat than what Detroit may face in the postseason. That said, it’s hard to see Kansas City not being in the AFC Championship, at the very least. Andy Reid’s team is undefeated entering Week 10 at 8-0, and they haven’t even played to their ceiling yet. That’s a scary thought for the NFL at large as K.C. looks to be the first team to three-peat as Super Bowl champions.
Thanks to that undefeated record, they have a three-game lead in the AFC West and are in current possession of the No. 1 seed in the conference.
While we acknowledge they haven’t played to their peak ability just yet, it could be on the horizon. Leading up to the deadline, the Chiefs added wideout DeAndre Hopkins and pass-rusher Josh Uche. The addition of Hopkins could prove to be the piece that catapults this offseason to a different stratosphere.
Buffalo is flying a bit under the radar. At 7-2, it has as many wins as the rest of the AFC East combined, so it is going to have zero problems clinching the division and at least one home playoff game. At the moment, the Bills are slotted as the No. 2 seed in the conference but host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. If they were to come out of that game victorious, they’d own the head-to-head tiebreaker over K.C., which could loom large in possibly leaping up to the top seed and getting a first-round bye.
One of the biggest needs for the Bills entering this season was adding a wide receiver to help replace Stefon Diggs. Before the deadline, they landed Amari Cooper in a trade with the Cleveland Browns, which should only help Josh Allen, who has been on a tear through the first half.
Buffalo’s defense has also been pretty stout, allowing opponents to score on just 46.8% of their red zone trips (seventh-best in the NFL).
Who saw this coming?! The Commanders have been the surprise story of the first half of the season, thanks to Jayden Daniels‘ rise to superstardom as a rookie. Washington currently sits at 7-2 and in first place in the NFC East, which has them in position to host a playoff game. So far this season, the Commanders are 4-0 at home and have an average margin of victory of 15 points in those games, which shouldn’t be overlooked.
The offense has simply been sensational under Daniels, who has the highest completion percentage (71.5%) of all-time through a player’s first nine games. This season, 60.7% of Washington’s drives have ended in either a touchdown or field goal, which is the highest rate through nine games since 2000.
The big question with this team is the defense, which has been leaky. Well, they’ve attempted to patch that up with arguably the biggest deal on deadline day by acquiring former Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. This season, Lattimore has allowed eight completions on 16 targets for 83 yards and zero touchdowns as the primary defender in coverage.
The Commanders still have two division games against the Eagles to worry about, but at the moment, they are in a solid position to make a run.
We are deviating a bit here by thrusting the Ravens into the top five. They are currently looking up to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, so they technically are not in the most ideal position. However, they are merely a game behind in the loss column and still have both games against Pittsburgh ahead of them to regain ground.
While Lamar Jackson is continuing to play at an elite, MVP-like level, the arrival of Derrick Henry could be what finally allows Baltimore to get over the hump in the AFC. The ability of Henry to grind out yards on the ground has been something that has been missing in the Ravens offense, particularly as they get into the postseason. Henry has already been on a tear this season, and if his prior history is any indication, he gets better as the season progresses.
Meanwhile, Jackson’s passing attack has been arguably the best it’s ever been. He leads the league in yards per attempt passer rating and is tied for the lead in TD-INT ratio. The Ravens just added Diontae Johnson to the receiver room at the deadline as well, giving Jackson another weapon for the stretch run.
The big issue for Baltimore is the defense, and it could even end up being their demise. They are allowing 280.9 passing yards per game, which is the worst in the league. They brought in former Rams corner Tre’Davious White at the deadline to help stop the bleeding in the secondary, but the entire unit needs to get back into shape over this second half.
Still, this is a team that not many teams will want to play in the postseason due to their high-powered offense.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Entering Week 10, the Steelers have possession of first place in the AFC North, which would give them a home playoff game in one of the toughest environments for opposing teams in the entire league. Their defense is top-notch, allowing just 14.9 points per game (second-best in the league) and 5.3 yards per play (10th-best). T.J. Watt continues to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks, which has helped the defense get off the field as they are holding opponents to a 34.6% conversion rate on third down.
Of course, Pittsburgh’s defense has routinely been stout, but what could be the difference in this 2024 team going on a run is the offense. Mike Tomlin has seemingly pulled the right lever in placing Russell Wilson at quarterback over Justin Fields. The Steelers are 2-0 in Wilson’s starts so far this season and are averaging 31.5 points per game. If that holds up, they suddenly are a dark horse.
7. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are currently sitting as the No. 5 seed in the NFC but aren’t totally out of the NFC North race just yet. Although the home loss to Detroit in Week 7 didn’t do them any favors, they still have another against their rival set for Week 18 and are just one game out of the loss column with an easier remaining strength of schedule. So, in theory, there is still a plausible path to a home playoff game, thus an easier road to the Super Bowl.
As for the on-field product, the offense has been just fine with Sam Darnold under center, as the veteran quarterback ranks inside the top five in the league in yards per attempt, passing touchdowns and passer rating. While their 4.2 yards per rush average ranks 21st in the league, Aaron Jones has given them a burst in the backfield as well.
Defensively, the Vikings have shown an ability to get after the quarterback, which has been their calling card thus far. Entering Week 10, they are ninth in the league in pressure rate and are tied for third in total pressures.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
After sitting at .500 through the first month, the Eagles have stabilized their season with four straight wins. That puts them just a game behind the Commanders in the win column for first place in the NFC East, with both games against their division rival still to be played. With that in mind, there’s a very clear path for them to leap up the standings and suddenly have a home playoff game on their hands. At 6-2, they are also just a game behind the 7-1 Lions, so the No. 1 seed is even within enough reach to keep an eye on it.
While that has them in a favorable position, these next few weeks will be a key indicator of what this Philly team is. This four-game winning streak has helped save their season to this point, but all of those wins have come against clubs that are currently under .500.
The Eagles do have one of the more lethal offenses in the NFL when everyone is healthy. Of course, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith form one of the top receiver duos in the league, and the arrival of Saquon Barkley has added another dynamic layer to the unit for Jalen Hurts. The defense has also started to play at a high level, allowing the fewest total yards per game and second-fewest points per game since Week 6. As we noted, however, we’ll have to wait and see if that is merely due to their opposition.
The Texans should run away with the AFC South with no other real playoff contender in the division. Heading into Week 10, they have a two-game lead in the division, and that should only grow as the season goes along. Setting themselves up for a home playoff game shouldn’t be overlooked, especially how different they are at home (4-0) compared to on the road (2-3).
While injuries have plagued Houston on offense, they’ve also looked off at times and have just a +1 point differential on the season. It’ll be interesting to see how they respond with the return of wideout Nico Collins in the coming weeks. Defensively, the Texans have played well under DeMeco Ryans, allowing just 4.7 yards per play (second-fewest in the NFL) and are holding opponents to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.
The Falcons are in a similar position to the Texans as they don’t really have many threats in the NFC South, especially after sweeping the season series against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to give them the head-to-head tiebreaker. That gives them a clear path to a home playoff game on wild-card Weekend, which is much smoother sailing than the likes of the Green Bay Packers, who fall short of making this list. While you can make the case that Green Bay is a better overall football team than Atlanta (just like the Niners we mentioned in the intro), the Falcons path is much more advantageous as a division favorite rather than sitting in third place like the Packers are currently.
Kirk Cousins is also playing stellar football as of late, completing 73% of his passes with a 115 passer rating over the last five games. The defense needs to play better, but the offense has shown it can put up points.
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Author: Tyler Sullivan
November 7, 2024 | 3:10 pm
