2024 NFL playoff picture: AFC field looks nearly set, but here are the teams likely fighting for one spot

The 2024 NFL regular season just crossed the midway point, with nine weeks of the 18-week schedule in the books. Yet, with so much of the season still left to play, the playoff field in the AFC already appears to be nearly set.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, six teams in the AFC already have at least an 88% chance of reaching the playoffs even though there are still nine weeks to play. Those six teams are the Bills (99.9%), Chiefs (99.9%), Ravens (98.8%), Texans (91.5%), Steelers (90.5%) and Chargers (88.7%).

To be fair, through nine weeks last season, the model had the Jaguars (86.1%) and Bengals (63.3%) among its top six teams, and both missed the playoffs.

“While the Bengals had injuries to blame, the Jaguars were flying high at 86.1% and collapsed,” says Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model.

So which teams are in the mix for the final playoff spot in the AFC this season? According to the model, the Broncos (5-4), Colts (4-5), Bengals (4-5) and, yes, the Jets (3-6) are in a four-for-all. 

The model favors Denver, which makes the playoffs in 49.6% of simulations, slightly over the other three. The Broncos would greatly improve their chances to earn a spot in the postseason if they were to upset the undefeated Chiefs (8-0) this week. With a victory, Denver’s chance to make the playoffs jumps to 66%. With a loss its chance drops to 43%.

“The Broncos have more to gain than to lose,” Oh says.

As for the Colts, the model prefers Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson at quarterback; the former gives the team a 34.6% chance to make the playoffs. But Indianapolis plays three of its next five games on the road, and the two home games are against the Bills (on Sunday) and Lions (Week 12), two Super Bowl contenders. 

Like the Broncos, the Bengals have much more to gain than to lose this week, against the rival Ravens. Cincinnati has a 24.8% chance to make the postseason, but with a win over Baltimore that would jump to 41.0%. A loss would drop that number to 18.3%.

Meanwhile the Jets, who are coming off arguably their best half of the season in a 21-13 win over the Texans, still have a 10.5% chance to reach the postseason.

As for Week 10, the SportsLine Projection Model says one team cover in well over 50% of simulations in the Broncos and Chiefs on Sunday. However, that game isn’t one of the three with A-grade spread picks based on model simulations for Week 10. You can find those top-tier Week 10 NFL picks at SportsLine.