The New York Jets have not reached the playoffs since making their second consecutive appearance in the AFC Championship Game in 2010, when they suffered a 24-19 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The football world believed the drought would end after they acquired four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers prior to the 2023 season.
Those hopes were crushed four plays into that year’s opener against the Buffalo Bills as Rodgers ruptured his Achilles tendon and was lost for the rest of the campaign. The Jets proceeded to go 7-10 with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle manning the quarterback position.
With Rodgers ready to go in 2024, the pundits again called for New York’s postseason dry spell to be snapped at 13 years. The club lost its season opener against the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers 32-19 but answered with victories over the Tennessee Titans (24-17) and New England Patriots (24-3), and with the majority of the remainder of its schedule featuring favorable matchups, making the playoffs certainly appeared to be an attainable goal.
The SportsLine Projection Model definitely thought so. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, gave the Jets a 78% chance to qualify for the postseason following their dominant triumph over the AFC East-rival Patriots in Week 3.
However, that was the last time New York left the field with a positive outcome. The team squandered a fourth-quarter lead and dropped a 10-9 decision at home to a Denver Broncos squad featuring rookie Bo Nix at quarterback in Week 4, then were beaten 23-17 by the then-undefeated Minnesota Vikings in London.
The model’s simulations had the Jets’ playoff prospects falling to 59% after the defeat to Denver and 45% following the setback against Minnesota.
A 23-20 home loss to Buffalo on a late field goal in Week 6 followed, dropping the outlook for the postseason to 37%. Then, New York allowed Pittsburgh to score the final 31 points in a 37-15 drubbing a week later, and its chances to make the playoffs plummeted to 18%.
As 7-point favorites in New England this past Sunday, the Jets were roundly expected to halt their four-game skid against the 1-6 Patriots, who entered with a six-game losing streak of their own. The Jets were ahead 13-7 at halftime and facing a New England offense that lost rookie QB Drake Maye to a concussion early in the second quarter.
The lead changed four times in the second half before Rhamondre Stevenson recorded his second rushing touchdown of the game with 22 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, and the Patriots were successful on their two-point conversion attempt to go up 25-22. On a day when it used its three first-half timeouts in the opening quarter, saw kicker Greg Zuerlein continue to struggle and botched a two-point try late in the fourth, New York was unable to get into position for a game-tying field-goal attempt.
With that defeat, the Jets fell to 2-6 and are ranked 15th in the AFC, ahead of only the 1-6 Titans. The team has made numerous attempts to right the ship, but none have worked, and it enters a Week 9 home meeting with the AFC South-leading Houston Texans (5-2) on Thursday Night Football on a five-game slide that the SportsLine Projection Model gave a 2.2% chance of occurring.
New York fired head coach Robert Saleh after the loss to the Vikings and replaced him on an interim basis with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. It also made a change in its offensive approach, taking away the play-calling duties from coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and giving them to passing game coordinator Todd Downing.
The Jets acquired six-time Pro Bowl receiver Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders after Week 6, but Rodgers’ former Green Bay Packers teammate has made just seven catches for 84 yards in his first two games with the club. Star linebacker Haason Reddick, who was obtained from the Philadelphia Eagles in an offseason trade, made his debut in Week 8 after ending a holdout that began prior to training camp and was a non-factor while playing primarily in third-down situations.
Local and national media outlets scathed the Jets on Monday, proclaiming the season and the entire Rodgers era to be complete failures. The model seems to agree, as its simulations give New York a 9% chance of qualifying for the postseason after the embarrassing defeat in New England.
Considering their next opponent, the Jets aren’t likely to stop the bleeding on Thursday. But even if they beat the Texans, the model says they would make the playoffs just 14% of the time. In fact, even if New York followed a win against Houston with triumphs over the Arizona Cardinals and Indianapolis Colts before its bye in Week 11, its postseason chances would increase to only 26%.
Unexpected things happen on a regular basis in the NFL, but according to the model, the prospects of the Jets now putting together a three-game winning streak are a mere 19%.
However, the model is calling for a close contest on Thursday between the Texans and Jets, who surprisingly are favored at several sportsbooks. But it isn’t one of the seven games with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the ninth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 9 NFL picks at SportsLine.
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Author: Scott Erskine
October 29, 2024 | 9:26 am
