The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars get Sunday’s Week 7 action started from Wembley Stadium in London. Both clubs come into this international head-to-head looking to turn their seasons in a more positive direction after falling out to a 1-5 start.
For Jacksonville, that’s particularly true, as they are teetering on what feels like another situation where a coach, Doug Pederson, could lose his job if the tides don’t turn soon. The Jags are 2-10 in their past 12 games dating back to last season, and Trevor Lawrence is 1-10 in his prior 11 starts.
Meanwhile, the Patriots, while also struggling, are in a different position. They are amid a full rebuild and just boosted No. 3 overall pick, Drake Maye, to QB1 a week ago. He tossed three touchdowns in the blowout loss to Houston in Week 6 but also had a couple of picks and a fumble, so he’ll be looking for a more efficient outing along with his first career win.
Patriots vs. Jaguars where to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 20 | Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
Location: Wembley Stadium (London)
TV: NFL Network | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Jaguars -5.5; O/U 41.5 (via FanDuel sportsbook)
When the Patriots have the ball
New England’s passing attack got a jolt with Maye inserted into the lineup. In the previous five games with Jacoby Brissett, the Patriots averaged 119.4 yards through the air. Last week, Maye threw for 209, so there’s promise that we could be seeing a more prolific passing game going forward.
Dating back to the preseason, Maye has shown an ability to push the ball down the field more than Brissett, and he flashed just that in Week 6. Roughly 9.1% of Maye’s throws were 20 yards or more down the field and completed four of them. Meanwhile, he registered 7.0 air yards per attempt. For reference, Brissett had six completions of 20-plus yards in his prior starts combined.
That knack for throwing down the field should benefit the likes of rookie Ja’Lynn Polk and second-year man Kayshon Boutte. That said, DeMario Douglas is who could prove to be the ultimate security blanket for Maye, thanks to his ability to get open in small windows off the line of scrimmage. Douglas is one of the better receivers in the league at creating separation, and he caught six of his nine targets last week from Maye for 92 yards and a touchdown.
This unit is set to face a Jaguars pass defense that is allowing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their passes for a league-worst 276.7 yards per game.
When the Jaguars have the ball
Jacksonville’s offense has struggled to find its identity so far this season. The club ranks 22nd in total points per game (18.8), 28th on third-down (30.4% conversion rate), and is also in the bottom half of the league in red zone touchdown efficiency.
While Trevor Lawrence, who is 1-10 in his past 11 starts, isn’t without blame; his pass catchers are also letting him down. The Week 6 loss to Chicago in London was a key example of that, with receivers dropping four would-be touchdowns. On the year, Jacksonville has the third-most drops in the NFL (15).
That said, the unit should get a boost in that regard as it got the sure-handed Evan Engram back into the lineup last week after missing time due to injury. In the loss, the tight end caught all 10 of his targets for 102 yards. Engram is coming off a 114-catch season in 2023, so reinserting that type of player into the offense — against a Patriots defense that has struggled against tight ends — could do wonders in Week 7 and going forward.
In the backfield, Travis Etienne is dealing with a hamstring injury, so he could be limited or held out of this game entirely. And that may not be such a bad thing. Fellow back Tank Bigsby has been the more efficient back for his team this season and leads the NFL with a 7.2 yards per rush average.
Patriots vs. Jaguars key matchup
While it’s unclear if Christian Gonzalez will outright shadow Brian Thomas Jr., this corner-receiver matchup could be one of the more fascinating subplots of this Week 7 head-to-head. Thomas continues to blossom as one of the brightest young receivers in the NFL, even amid Jacksonville’s struggles. The 22-year-old is averaging 70.7 receiving yards per game and has three touchdowns through six games. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has been one of the bright spots for New England, as the former first-rounder has largely held opposing receivers in check. Through six games, Gonzalez is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 55.8% of their targets against him, along with a 71.1 passer rating.
Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction
The Jaguars are 5.5-point favorites in this matchup and do have the advantage of already being in London after playing there last week, while the Patriots need to fly across the pond. That said, this is a good spot for New England from a sports betting perspective. Even after a 20-point loss to Houston last week, the franchise is riding high off a strong showing from Maye, who now gets an easier opponent in the Jaguars defense. Jacksonville ranks 30th in yards per play allowed and dead last in red zone efficiency, allowing opponents to score on a whopping 76% of their red zone trips. Yes, New England’s defense let up 41 points last week, but that was to a C.J. Stroud-led Texans offense, and it’s hard to envision this version of the Trevor Lawrence-led Jags doing the same. The Pats get the first win of the Drake Maye era in London.
Projected score: Patriots 23, Jaguars 20
The pick: Patriots +5.5
Bonus: The SportsLine projection model sees value in one of the teams on the moneyline ahead of this London matchup. Check out who it’s backing, here.
Go to Source
Author: Tyler Sullivan
October 19, 2024 | 10:10 am
