It’s finally here: Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season presents the first career meeting between two of the NFL’s ascending young quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud (23 years old) of the 5-1 Houston Texans and Jordan Love (25) of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers.
Since both became their respective franchise’s full-time starting quarterback in 2023, both lead the NFL in different passing metrics in that time. Stroud paces the NFL in passing yards per game (270.7), while Love co-leads the league in passing touchdowns (44) since the start of the 2023 season with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Stroud and Love also produced identical production in their postseason debuts in the 2023 season’s AFC and NFC wild-card round, with each completing 16 of their 21 passes with three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 157.2 rating. That 157.2 rating is tied for the highest passer rating in a playoff debut in NFL history (minimum 15 pass attempts). Stroud threw for 274 yards in a 45-14 home win over the Cleveland Browns, while Love went on the road and threw for 272 yards in a 48-32 road win at the Cowboys.
Who will come out on top in their first showdown? Here is a closer look at the key matchups between two teams in the process of legitimizing their credibility as Super Bowl contenders.
Packers vs. Texans where to watch
Date: Sunday, Oct. 20 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
Channel: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Packers -3; O/U 48 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Texans have the ball
Houston is cooking right now: its 5-1 start to begin the 2024 season is tied for the best six-game start in Texans history along with the 2012 season in which they got out to an 11-1 record. Stroud and Co. dropped 41 points on the New England Patriots in Foxborough in Week 6, which is tied for the most points on the road in franchise history.
However, Stroud will face much more resistance in Green Bay against the NFL’s top ball-hawking defense. Green Bay has an NFL-best 17 takeaways thus far in 2024, which is tied for the most by any team through six games in the last 10 seasons along with the 2015 Super Bowl 50 champion Denver Broncos and the 2018 Chicago Bears.
The difference is stark for the Packers, who recorded just 18 takeaways in the entirety of 2023 under former defensive coordinator Joe Barry. New DC Jeff Hafley has his bunch on another level, registering multiple takeaways in each of the first six games of the season for the first time since the franchise did so in the 1996 season, the year of Brett Favre’s sole Super Bowl title. Free agency acquisition safety Xavier McKinney, who came over from the New York Giants, leads the NFL with six takeaways individually (five interceptions and one fumble recovery) — which is more than 12 NFL teams through Week 6. However, it isn’t just the McKinney show: 10 different Packers have takeaways, tied for the most such defenders on a team with a takeaway this season along with the Bears. McKinney (90.7 PFF defensive grade) and 2024 fourth-round rookie Evan Williams (91.4 PFF defensive grade) are the NFL’s two-highest graded safeties, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Green Bay secondary will provide strong resistance to Stroud and receivers Tank Dell and especially Stefon Diggs, a former NFC North foe from his time with the Minnesota Vikings. Diggs has lined up in the slot on 44.8% of his offensive snaps, his highest slot rate since 2016, per NFL Pro Insights. However, opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% percent of their passes (48 for 72) for 523 yards a touchdown and three interceptions to slot receivers versus Green Bay this season for a 75.2 passer rating, the third-lowest in the NFL. Diggs did align for a season-high 63.3% of his snaps as an outside receiver in Week 6 with Nico Collins sidelined with a hamstring injury.
New Texans running back Joe Mixon versus the Packers front seven will be another matchup to watch. He is averaging 95.3 rushing yards per game, the fourth-most in the NFL, but Green Bay’s is a top-10 unit at stopping the run, allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (110.0) this season.
When the Packers have the ball
Love and the Packers offense may match up with the Texans defense better than Stroud and the Texans offense does with the Packers defense. For starters, Houston will have to contend with Packers Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs, whose 464 rushing yards rank as the fifth-most in football this season. He has also been elusive with 24 missed tackles, the sixth-most in the league, per NFL Pro Insights. That’s a problem for Houston since the Texans have missed 29.3% of their tackle attempts when defending the run, the second-worst rate in the NFL, this season and have surrendered 223 rushing yards off said missed tackles, also the second-most in the NFL.
That sets up the play-action pass for Love, which is a staple of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love has been lethal on play-action this season, completing 20 of his 34 play-action pass attempts for 341 yards and four touchdowns for a 132.1 passer rating, the second-best in the NFL. The Texans have struggled to defend against play-action, allowing five touchdowns off play-action with opposing quarterbacks registering a combined 126.4 passer rating against them on such throws, the third-highest allowed in the NFL. If Houston isn’t careful, it’ll see the back of Packers wide receiver Christian Watson’s jersey as he is jogging into the end zone like Arizona Cardinals six-time Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker did in a 34-13 Week 6 defeat in Green Bay. Love ran an under center play-action play and threw the ball over Baker’s head for an easy 44-yard touchdown.
Green Bay also has a diet Deebo Samuel in wide receiver Jayden Reed, who has totaled 442 receiving yards and 110 rushing yards this season. That makes him one of three wide receivers with over 400 receiving yards and over 100 rushing yards through six games since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, joining 1995 Eric Metcalf and 2009 DeSean Jackson.
The Texans have been much improved in pass defense in 2024, allowing the lowest completion percentage in football (53.3%), the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (163.2) and the third-fewest pass yards per attempt (6.2). However, they have accumulated those metrics against a few quarterbacks who still have plenty of question marks to their games in Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence and Drake Maye. They did hold up outstandingly against Bills Pro Bowl quarterback Josh Allen, their stiffest test thus far. He completed just 9 of 30 passes in a Week 5 loss in Houston, the lowest completion percentage (30%) by any quarterback in a game with 30-plus pass attempts in 32 years, per CBS Sports Research.
Houston’s top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Georgia Bulldogs corner Kamari Lassiter, is a huge reason for this defense’s production: he is allowing the lowest completion percentage (32.1%) in the NFL this season, among those with at least 10 passes thrown their way. However, he won’t face Love and Co. on Sunday since he’ll miss Week 6 with a shoulder. He didn’t practice all week, and Houston ruled him out Friday afternoon along with its top-two leading tacklers in linebackers Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) and Azeez Al-Shaair (knee). Starting free safety Jimmie Ward (groin) and veteran receiver Robert Woods (foot) won’t suit up in Green Bay this week, either.
Packers vs. Texans prediction
There’s a high likelihood Stroud and Love go score for score Sunday afternoon, but between the defensive absences of Lassiter, Al-Shaair, To’oTo’o and Ward on top of missing Collins, who leads the NFL with 567 receiving yards, Houston doesn’t have as many playmakers as the Packers do on both sides of the football this week. It’s much more likely that the Packers defense comes up with a critical stop than the Texans unit, and Green Bay’s receiving core possesses more depth. Love’s edge in mobility and calmness under pressure will also prove to be key differences in his battle against Stroud. Green Bay takes the first matchup between the two budding stars.
Pick: Packers 34, Texans 20
Bonus: The SportsLine projection model is leaning on the Over ahead of this matchup between two of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Check out who it’s backing ATS, here.
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Author: Garrett Podell
October 19, 2024 | 10:15 am
