Recent history has seen the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles rule the NFC East. Over the last 11 seasons, Dallas (five) and Philadelphia (four) have combined to win the division title nine times, with the Cowboys capturing the crown last year.
The Washington Commanders franchise spoiled the party twice in that span, winning the NFC East as the Redskins in 2015 and the Washington Football Team in 2020 – with a 7-9 record, no less. Following seven consecutive seasons without a winning record, Washington is in good position to end that dubious streak, qualify for the playoffs and challenge for the 10th division title in franchise history.
After finishing last year with a 4-13 record, the Commanders were awarded the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and used it to select quarterback Jayden Daniels from LSU. Adding the reigning Heisman Trophy winner brought excitement to an organization that has been aching for a solid starting quarterback since Kirk Cousins departed as a free agent after the 2017 campaign, no disrespect to Alex Smith intended.
Daniels’ NFL debut yielded mixed results, as he completed 70.8% of his pass attempts but threw for only 184 yards in Washington’s 37-20 road loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, the 23-year-old led the Commanders’ ground attack with 88 yards and rushed for a pair of touchdowns.
In Week 2 against the division-rival New York Giants at home, Daniels was even more accurate with his arm, going 23-of-29 for 226 yards. And even though the Commanders were unable to find the end zone, kicker Austin Seibert set a franchise record by converting all seven of his field-goal attempts to help the team post a 21-18 victory.
It wasn’t until Week 3 that Daniels threw his first touchdown pass in the NFL, as he connected with offensive tackle Trent Scott for a 1-yard score in the third quarter of Washington’s 38-33 road triumph over the Cincinnati Bengals. He hooked up with Terry McLaurin late in the fourth for his second TD toss and finished the contest with a 91.3% completion rate.
Daniels, who also ran for a score against the Bengals, followed with one rushing and one passing touchdown in Washington’s 42-14 win versus the Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 4, completing 86.7% of his passes. A week later, he threw for one TD and ran for 82 yards as the team improved to 4-1 by defeating the Cleveland Browns 34-13.
Despite a valiant effort, the Commanders’ four-game winning streak came to an end last weekend with a 30-23 road setback against the Baltimore Ravens. Daniels posted his second multi-TD performance in that contest, teaming up with McLaurin for a pair of scores.
The Daniels-to-McLaurin connection is quickly becoming one of the most successful in the NFL. Daniels has targeted McLaurin 43 times and connected with him on 29 occasions, with four being for touchdowns. Dyami Brown is the only other skill player on Washington’s roster with a TD catch this season.
Daniels also looks McLaurin’s way in key situations, as the wideout is tied for 10th in the NFL with 19 receptions for first downs.
Through six games, Daniels leads the league in completion percentage at 75.3%, ranks third with a 73.7 QBR and is fourth with a 107.1 passer rating. He is second among all quarterbacks in rushing with 322 yards, trailing Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (403), and is three behind Brian Robinson Jr. for the team lead.
The 25-year-old Robinson did not play in the loss to the Ravens due to a knee injury, but he was a limited participant in Wednesday’s team practice and hopes to return for Sunday’s home game against the Carolina Panthers. He has recorded two 100-yard performances this year and, barring any more games missed, is on pace to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time in his three-year career.
Robinson is first on the Commanders with five touchdown runs, while Daniels has registered four. Journeyman Jeremy McNichols has recorded three TDs on the ground for Washington, which is fifth in the NFL in both rushing (157.3 yards) and total offense (378) while sharing second place in scoring (29.7 points).
The Commanders have done a great job holding on to the football, as they’ve committed only three turnovers – the third-fewest in the league. On the other side of the ball, they are tied for eighth in sacks, with six players registering at least two of the team’s 17 this year. However, Washington will be without one of them for the rest of 2024 as defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (two sacks) suffered a season-ending torn pectoral muscle in the loss to Baltimore.
Even with that defeat, and the loss of Allen, the SportsLine Projection Model still believes in the Commanders. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, suggests Washington makes the playoffs for just the second time in nine seasons in 78.6% of its simulations.
Prior to the start of 2024, the model had the Commanders reaching the postseason only 6.2% of the time.
Both of Washington’s last two wins have come by double digits, and the model is calling for a similar outcome when it hosts Carolina on Sunday. However, that game isn’t one of the three with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the seventh week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 7 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Go to Source
Author: Scott Erskine
October 17, 2024 | 9:41 am
