No, your eyes are not playing tricks on you. There’s no need to make an emergency appointment with an optometrist. What you’re seeing when you look at the NFL standings is correct — the NFC North is the best division in the league through the first six weeks of the 2024 season.
After they won their first division title since 1993 last year, much was expected from the Detroit Lions. With a young group of players at the skill positions on offense, the Green Bay Packers had a strong second half in 2023 and reached the playoffs, creating high hopes for this year.
Conversely, the forecast was not as positive for the other two teams in the division. The Minnesota Vikings allowed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to leave via free agency and planned to allow 2024 10th overall draft pick J.J. McCarthy to compete with journeyman Sam Darnold for the starting job. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears bid farewell to Justin Fields, the 11th overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, and handed the reins to 2024 first overall pick Caleb Williams.
The Lions and Packers are holding up their ends of the bargain, while the Vikings and Bears have exceeded expectations with one-third of the season now in the rearview mirror. Detroit owns a 4-1 record, with the only loss being a 20-16 setback in Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which it squandered a lead in the final minute of the fourth quarter.
After scoring 62 points over their first three contests, the Lions erupted for a total of 89 in back-to-back victories against the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys. The club finished 2023 third in the NFL in total offense (394.8 yards) and occupies the same spot thus far this season with an average of 416 yards per game. It ranks fourth in the league in both passing (258.2 yards) and rushing (157.8) while leading all teams in scoring (30.2 points).
Green Bay split its first four games of the year, a stretch that featured odd results. Jordan Love was the team’s quarterback in the losses, while Malik Willis was under center for both victories due to a knee injury Love suffered in the season-opening setback against the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil.
Following a 31-29 home loss to Minnesota in Week 4 in which they nearly overcame a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter, the Packers posted victories against the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. Like the Lions, Green Bay ranks in the top 10 in total offense (fourth, 400.8 yards), passing (10th, 233.7), rushing (second, 167.2) and scoring (eighth, 27 points) with a unit that features second-year starter Love, second-year targets Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Tucker Kraft, and third-year wideouts Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson.
Minnesota’s quarterback competition came to a premature end in the preseason as McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee, ending his 2024 campaign. Darnold, who was selected third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by the New York Jets and went on to play for the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers before signing a one-year contract with the Vikings last March, has taken the job and run with it. He ranks third in the NFC with 11 touchdown passes — one fewer than Love.
With Darnold as its signal-caller, Minnesota (5-0) is one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. The Vikings may leave the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs standing alone, however, as they host the Lions in a huge Week 7 matchup.
All due respect to Minnesota, but Chicago undoubtedly is the most surprising team in the NFC North at the moment. The Bears entered 2024 having posted a winning record and made the playoffs only twice in the past 13 seasons, and they pinned their hopes at turning things around on Williams.
The 22-year-old began his rookie campaign with a triumph over the Tennessee TItans, but he finished with only 93 passing yards in the 24-17 win. Williams failed to throw a touchdown pass against the Houston Texans in his second NFL game — a 19-13 defeat — but has completed nine scoring tosses over his last four contests, with four coming in Chicago’s 35-16 victory versus the Jacksonville Jaguars in London last weekend.
All four NFC North teams are playing effective defense as well, ranking in the top 10 both against the run and in points allowed. The Vikings have been the best among the quartet, as they are second in rushing defense (67.2 yards allowed) and third in points allowed (15.2).
The SportsLine Projection Model is feeling good about the division’s teams after six weeks. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says that the chances of all four clubs qualifying for the postseason are just 5.5% because there still are five head-to-head matchups on the schedule, but the prospects of three of the squads making the playoffs are very high at 65%.
Prior to the start of the season, the model had Green Bay reaching the postseason in 74.2% of its simulations and Detroit doing so 56.9% of the time. Its outlook for Chicago was at 52.4%, while Minnesota was at only 8.8%.
Now, the Vikings are the best bet to make the playoffs at 94.5%. The prospects for the Lions and Packers also are high, with Detroit at 65.4% — even though it lost NFL sacks leader Aidan Hutchinson (7.5) for the season with a broken leg — and Green Bay at 63.5%, while the Bears are getting in 42.4% of the time in the simulations.
One of the five remaining head-to-head battles between NFC North teams takes place Sunday as Detroit visits Minnesota. The SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close contest, but it isn’t one of the three games with A-grade picks based on simulations for the seventh week of the season. However, one is the matchup between Green Bay and the AFC South-leading Houston Texans. You can find all of the top-tier Week 7 picks at SportsLine.
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Author: Scott Erskine
October 16, 2024 | 4:06 pm
