The New England Patriots (1-3) and Miami Dolphins (1-3) will both be in a must-win position when they meet on Sunday afternoon in an AFC East battle. New England opened the season with a surprising win at Cincinnati, but it has dropped its three games since then. Miami is on a three-game losing streak of its own following its season-opening win over Jacksonville. The Dolphins swept the season series last year, but they are playing without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Miami is favored by 1 point in the latest Patriots vs. Dolphins odds, while the over/under is 36 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Dolphins vs. Patriots picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
The model has set its sights on Miami vs. New England. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under:
- Patriots vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -1
- Patriots vs. Dolphins over/under: 36 points
- Patriots vs. Dolphins money line: Miami -110, New England -109
- Patriots vs. Dolphins picks: See picks here
- Patriots vs. Dolphins streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Patriots can cover
New England is returning home following a disappointing two-game road trip that featured blowout losses to the Jets and 49ers. The Patriots were competitive in their last home game, taking Seattle to overtime as 3-point underdogs. They are sticking with veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who is a better option than anyone Miami has available.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has fumbled in every game this season, so cleaning up those mistakes would go a long way for the Patriots. Antonio Gibson rushed for 96 yards on 11 carries in Week 2, giving the Patriots another option at that position. The Dolphins have been the most overvalued team in the NFL since the end of last season, failing to cover the spread in seven consecutive games. See which team to pick here.
Why the Dolphins can cover
Miami entered the season fresh off an 11-win campaign and back-to-back playoff appearances, but its chances took a hit when Tagovailoa suffered another concussion in Week 2. The Dolphins have gone through multiple quarterbacks since then, with Tyler Huntley starting on Monday night. Huntley started nine games across four seasons with the Ravens, so he has experience in this position.
Having a full game of experience under his belt with Miami will give him a better chance to succeed this week. He has some of the most explosive wide receivers in the league at his disposal in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, while De’Von Achane is a versatile running back. The Dolphins have won six of their last seven games against the Patriots, covering the spread in all of those contests. See which team to pick here.
How to make Patriots vs. Dolphins picks
The model has simulated Dolphins vs. Patriots 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins New England vs. Miami on Sunday, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Patriots spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 188-131 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
October 5, 2024 | 6:31 am
