Grades for Falcons and Buccaneers after Atlanta’s wild OT win, plus bold predictions for NFL Week 5

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that have happened through the first four weeks of the season to decide if we’re all overreacting. 

Statement: Derrick Henry will rush for 2,000 yards. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. “Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing with 480 yards and is averaging an astonishing 6.0 yards per carry through the first four games. … Henry is on pace for 2,040 yards this season (120 rushing yards a game). Does that mean he’ll get to 2,000 again? Highly unlikely, even in an offense tailored to his strengths with Lamar Jackson running the ball to help him out. Henry would have to stay healthy for all 17 games and can’t afford off days like he had the first two weeks of the year. He’s certainly a threat to win the rushing title again.”

Statement: Bills will win the AFC East by multiple games. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. “The Bills are 3-1 and are already separating themselves from the Dolphins (who are still without Tua Tagovailoa) and the Patriots (who are in a rebuilding phase). The Jets are talented, but they are too inconsistent week to week and aren’t coached as well as the Bills. This division is Buffalo’s to lose, and the Bills may win it before Week 18 is played.”

Statement: Doug Pederson will be out of a job by Week 12. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. “This is when the Jaguars have their bye week. Jacksonville is 0-4 and Doug Pederson is already having to face questions about his job status. The Jaguars’ only win since Week 13 of last season was against the Panthers, losing nine of 10 that included a stunning collapse in the AFC South. Jacksonville has three winnable games coming up (Colts, Bears, Patriots), but if the Jaguars don’t go 3-0 in this stretch — is Pederson safe? The Jaguars then play the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions in order. Pederson’s fate may come when the bye week hit.”

Jeff has a total of 32 overreactions — one for every team — and if you want to see his full list, be sure to check it out here. 

4. NFL Week 5 picks: Vikings stay undefeated, Bills win showdown with Texans

Welcome to your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you’ve forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Will Brinson, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. After going 3-2 in Week 3, we fell slightly back to earth by going 2-3 against the spread in Week 4. That means we’re now 9-11 ATS on the season with the picks that we’ve featured in this part of the newsletter (and 8-12 straight-up). 

If you’re new here, here’s how things work: I’ll give you one Week 5 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you’ll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 5 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life. 

• Pete Prisco — Bills (-1) 30-28 over Texans. From Prisco: “The Bills are out on the road for the second straight week and didn’t look good in losing to the Ravens. The Texans haven’t been dynamic on offense, which many expected before the season. Look for Josh Allen to come in here and win a shootout with C.J. Stroud.” For the rest of Prisco’s Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
• Tyler Sullivan — Dolphins (+1) 17-13 over Patriots. From Sullivan: “this is a pick about Miami’s ability to get off the field, as it ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion rate (23.81%). New England’s offense ranks 24th in the league on third down. All this game may need is a single breakout play on offense, and the Dolphins, even with Tyler Huntley at QB, have more players capable of doing just that than the Patriots. “ For the rest of Sullivan’s Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
• Will Brinson — Browns at Commanders OVER 43.5 total points. From Brinson: “The Commanders are third in terms of scoring per game and Jayden Daniels is really cooking his last two games. Cleveland hasn’t scored at all this season but Washington has given up the eighth most points in the NFL through four weeks. I think it’s extremely reasonable for this game to be higher scoring than Vegas suggests.” You can check out the rest of Brinson’s best bets for Week 5 here.
• Jordan Dajani — Vikings (-2.5) 24-21 over Jets. From Dajani: “I have no idea what the Jets’ identity is on offense, and this is a revenge game for Sam Darnold. Just last week, the Denver Broncos got their revenge on former head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and Aaron Jones got his revenge on the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings are one of four teams undefeated in international games, and the only team to have covered the spread in every game this season.” For the rest of Dajani’s Week 5 best bets, be sure to click here.
• John Breech — Steelers (-2.5) 19-16 over Cowboys. The Cowboys defense has been bad through the first four weeks of the season, and now that Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons are both out, I feel like it’s only going to be worse for them this week. For the rest of my Week 5 picks, be sure to click here. 

For more Week 5 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here.

5. NFL bold predictions for Week 5: Jaguars finally pick up their first win

After giving you some bold predictions for Week 4 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 5, and he’s getting pretty bold this week: He’s predicting that the NFL’s only winless team will finally win a game and that the AFC’s only undefeated team will finally lose. 

Let’s take a look at few of his bold predictions:   

• 1. Jaguars get their first win of the season. “The 2-2 Indianapolis Colts could be a perfect matchup for the Jags to finally win a game. Indianapolis has lost eight consecutive games in Jacksonville. The Colts allow their opponents to hang around: all four games have been decided by six points or less this season. Also, Anthony Richardson can be erratic: he ranks last in the league in completion percentage (50.6%), but he is first in yards per dropback (8.1) and yards per completion (16.8). Richardson is also injury prone: he has left a game at least once in four of his eight starts in his NFL career. That includes getting injured in the first quarter against the Steelers last week.”
• 2. Panthers get their second: Andy Dalton gets revenge on Bears. “Through two starts, Dalton is averaging a 66.2% completion percentage and 269.5 passing yards per game (fifth in the NFL) with a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (tied for fifth in the NFL). His presence is why wide receiver Diontae Johnson has consecutive games with seven-plus catches, 80-plus yards receiving and a touchdown for the first time in his career. Dalton is 0-2 against the Bears in his career, but he and Carolina will beat Chicago and their ball-hawking defense (eight takeaways, tied for the third-most in the NFL).”
• 3. Saints hand Chiefs their first loss of the season. “The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are begging to lose a game. They are only the third team in NFL history to start 4-0 with a comeback of at least seven points in all four games. … The Saints will put the Chiefs in a hole early, and this week, Patrick Mahomes is unable to lead them back with fewer possessions and down another body in his receiving core in Rashee Rice.”

Garrett made a total of five bold predictions for Week 5, and you check out all of them here. 

6. Extra points: Rashee Rice placed on IR