Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I would like to start things off here by apologizing to the NFL schedule-maker. With the Falcons playing their third prime-time game in four weeks, I complained that Atlanta was getting too many prime-time games and I must now admit that I was wrong. The Falcons should be in prime time EVERY WEEK. All of their games are totally bonkers, completely unpredictable and they always go down to the wire (All five of their games this season have been decided by one score).
They had already played two of the most exciting prime-time games of the season through the first four weeks (against the Eagles and Chiefs) and they somehow topped that during their 36-30 overtime win over the Buccaneers.
We’ll be grading both teams in today’s newsletter, plus we’ll taking a look at which teams should be panicking right now and we’ll also be making some Week 5 picks.
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1. Falcons beat Buccaneers: Grades and notes from Atlanta’s wild OT win
On a night where Matt Ryan was inducted to the Ring of Honor, Kirk Cousins honored the Falcons legend by breaking one of his records. Cousins threw for 509 yards in Atlanta’s 36-30 win over the Tampa Bay, a total that topped Ryan’s previous franchise record of 503.
Here are our grades from the game:
BUCCANEERS GRADE: B-
The Buccaneers looked to have this game in hand until they absolutely fell apart in the fourth quarter. The Bucs had the chance to put the game away with just under three minutes left, but Bucky Irvin lost a fumble at Atlanta’s 25-yard line. They got another chance to put the game away after a Lavonte David interception at Atlanta’s 28-yard line with under two minutes left, but they blew that opportunity. It was that kind of day for the Buccaneers, they were in control for most of the game before they completely lost control. The biggest concern for Todd Bowles is that his defense got gashed up for 509 yards by Kirk Cousins. Atlanta’s receivers were running open all game and Tampa couldn’t do anything to stop it. This was the fifth-highest yardage total (550) that the Buccaneers have given up in franchise history and if they continue to look like this, it could be a long season for a team that plays the Saints, Ravens, Falcons (again), Chiefs and 49ers over the next five weeks.
Buccaneers notes
- Buccaneers defense gets burned. The Buccaneers defense surrendered 550 total yards, which is the most the team has given up in eight years. It was also the fifth-highest total in franchise history. The last time they surrendered at least 550 came in 2016 when they set a franchise record by giving up 626 yards to the Raiders.
- Cousins carves up Buccaneers. Although the Buccaneers gave up 509 yard to Cousins, that’s NOT the franchise record. It’s actually the fourth-most passing yards the Bucs have ever given up. The Buccaneers have given more 500-yard passing games than any other franchise. They gave up 517 to Jared Goff in 2017, they gave up 513 to Derek Carr in 2016 and 510 to Eli Manning in 2012. There have only been 16 games in NFL history where a QB threw for at least 509 yards and the Buccaneers have now given up four of them.
FALCONS GRADE: A-
It took five weeks, but Kirk Cousins appears to now be completely comfortable running the Falcons offense. Cousins had the biggest game of his career, throwing for a franchise-record 509 yards. The Falcons QB was perfect in overtime, going 3-for-3 for 69 yards, including the game-winning TD to KhaDarel Hodge. Cousins ability to spread the ball around kept the Buccaneers defense guessing: There were a total of seven receivers who caught at least two passes, including Drake London (154 yards) and Darnell Mooney (105 yards), who became the just the fifth Falcons duo to both go for over 100 receiving yards in a game. This wasn’t a perfect game by any means — Younghoe Koo missed two field goals and Cousins had an ugly interception in the fourth quarter — but the Falcons came away with an impressive comeback win, and right now, Cousins has put the rest of the NFL on alert that Atlanta is the team to beat in the NFC South.
Falcons notes
- Kirk Cousins joins rare club. The Falcons QB threw for 509 yards, making him just the 25th QB in NFL history to hit the 500-yard mark in a game. It was also the tied for the 15th highest total in NFL history. Cousins’ passing total was also a franchise record for the Falcons, breaking the old record fo 503, which was held by Matt Ryan. Cousins has now has the record for the second-most passing yards ever in a prime-time game, trailing only Tom Brady, who once threw for 517.
- Cousins makes NFL history. Although he didn’t set the NFL’s single-game passing record, Cousins did get himself in the record book. The 36-year-old became the first QB in NFL history to throw for at least 450 yards in game with three different teams. Besides the Falcons, he also did it with the Vikings and Commanders.
- Unexpected hero. KhaDarel Hodge won the game with a 45-yard walk-off TD catch in overtime. Hodge had ZERO receptions on the season going into Week 5, so he was an unexpected hero. He ended up catching two passes in the game for 67 yards.
You can check out our full takeaways from the game here.
2. Panic meter for teams that were supposed to contend
The NFL season is only headed into Week 5, so if your favorite team is struggling right now, it’s probably not time to panic. Actually, I take that back. It might be time to panic.
If you want to know whether you should be panicking, Tyler Sullivan has the answer. Sully came up with a panic meter so he could figure out which preseason contenders should start panicking because they no longer look like contenders.
- Bengals. “Cincinnati’s lone win of the season came Sunday against the Panthers, which is hardly a sign of the tides turning. The defense is the key cause of concern as the Bengals are allowing 26 points per game so far (26th in the NFL) and struggle to get off the field on third down (22nd in opponent third-down conversion rate).”
- Rams. “Injuries have taken a massive toll on Sean McVay’s team, especially on offense, with high-profile targets Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sidelined. Added to the injury bug taking a bite out of the roster is the simply poor play on defense. Los Angeles is allowing the second-most points per game (28.8) and second-most yards per game (385.3).”
- Jaguars. “You can make a pretty easy case that the season is already lost after dropping to 0-4. Now, all eyes are on the Jaguars brass, including head coach Doug Pederson, to see if he’ll be the first coach fired in 2024. Coming up in Week 6 and Week 7, the Jaguars have back-to-back games in London, and it’ll be fascinating to see if Pederson is still the coach by the time they get back to the United States for Week 8 if things don’t subside.”
- Dolphins. “They are down to their third quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve and backup Skylar Thompson (rib) also injured. Tyler Huntley got the start in Week 5, and the offense was glacial. Tagovailoa is reportedly symptom-free , which could pave the way for him to return when he’s eligible to come off of IR in Week 8, but the Dolphins will desperately need to get in the win column in the meantime.”
There are a total of nine teams listed on Sully’s panic meter and you can check them out here.
3. Overreactions for each NFL team after four weeks
Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that have happened through the first four weeks of the season to decide if we’re all overreacting.
Statement: Derrick Henry will rush for 2,000 yards.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. “Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing with 480 yards and is averaging an astonishing 6.0 yards per carry through the first four games. … Henry is on pace for 2,040 yards this season (120 rushing yards a game). Does that mean he’ll get to 2,000 again? Highly unlikely, even in an offense tailored to his strengths with Lamar Jackson running the ball to help him out. Henry would have to stay healthy for all 17 games and can’t afford off days like he had the first two weeks of the year. He’s certainly a threat to win the rushing title again.”
Statement: Bills will win the AFC East by multiple games.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. “The Bills are 3-1 and are already separating themselves from the Dolphins (who are still without Tua Tagovailoa) and the Patriots (who are in a rebuilding phase). The Jets are talented, but they are too inconsistent week to week and aren’t coached as well as the Bills. This division is Buffalo’s to lose, and the Bills may win it before Week 18 is played.”
Statement: Doug Pederson will be out of a job by Week 12.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. “This is when the Jaguars have their bye week. Jacksonville is 0-4 and Doug Pederson is already having to face questions about his job status. The Jaguars’ only win since Week 13 of last season was against the Panthers, losing nine of 10 that included a stunning collapse in the AFC South. Jacksonville has three winnable games coming up (Colts, Bears, Patriots), but if the Jaguars don’t go 3-0 in this stretch — is Pederson safe? The Jaguars then play the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions in order. Pederson’s fate may come when the bye week hit.”
Jeff has a total of 32 overreactions — one for every team — and if you want to see his full list, be sure to check it out here.
4. NFL Week 5 picks: Vikings stay undefeated, Bills win showdown with Texans
Welcome to your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you’ve forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Will Brinson, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. After going 3-2 in Week 3, we fell slightly back to earth by going 2-3 against the spread in Week 4. That means we’re now 9-11 ATS on the season with the picks that we’ve featured in this part of the newsletter (and 8-12 straight-up).
If you’re new here, here’s how things work: I’ll give you one Week 5 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you’ll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 5 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.
- Pete Prisco — Bills (-1) 30-28 over Texans. From Prisco: “The Bills are out on the road for the second straight week and didn’t look good in losing to the Ravens. The Texans haven’t been dynamic on offense, which many expected before the season. Look for Josh Allen to come in here and win a shootout with C.J. Stroud.” For the rest of Prisco’s Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan — Dolphins (+1) 17-13 over Patriots. From Sullivan: “this is a pick about Miami’s ability to get off the field, as it ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent third-down conversion rate (23.81%). New England’s offense ranks 24th in the league on third down. All this game may need is a single breakout play on offense, and the Dolphins, even with Tyler Huntley at QB, have more players capable of doing just that than the Patriots. “ For the rest of Sullivan’s Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
- Will Brinson — Browns at Commanders OVER 43.5 total points. From Brinson: “The Commanders are third in terms of scoring per game and Jayden Daniels is really cooking his last two games. Cleveland hasn’t scored at all this season but Washington has given up the eighth most points in the NFL through four weeks. I think it’s extremely reasonable for this game to be higher scoring than Vegas suggests.” You can check out the rest of Brinson’s best bets for Week 5 here.
- Jordan Dajani — Vikings (-2.5) 24-21 over Jets. From Dajani: “I have no idea what the Jets’ identity is on offense, and this is a revenge game for Sam Darnold. Just last week, the Denver Broncos got their revenge on former head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and Aaron Jones got his revenge on the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings are one of four teams undefeated in international games, and the only team to have covered the spread in every game this season.” For the rest of Dajani’s Week 5 best bets, be sure to click here.
- John Breech — Steelers (-2.5) 19-16 over Cowboys. The Cowboys defense has been bad through the first four weeks of the season, and now that Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons are both out, I feel like it’s only going to be worse for them this week. For the rest of my Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
For more Week 5 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here.
5. NFL bold predictions for Week 5: Jaguars finally pick up their first win
After giving you some bold predictions for Week 4 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 5, and he’s getting pretty bold this week: He’s predicting that the NFL’s only winless team will finally win a game and that the AFC’s only undefeated team will finally lose.
Let’s take a look at few of his bold predictions:
- 1. Jaguars get their first win of the season. “The 2-2 Indianapolis Colts could be a perfect matchup for the Jags to finally win a game. Indianapolis has lost eight consecutive games in Jacksonville. The Colts allow their opponents to hang around: all four games have been decided by six points or less this season. Also, Anthony Richardson can be erratic: he ranks last in the league in completion percentage (50.6%), but he is first in yards per dropback (8.1) and yards per completion (16.8). Richardson is also injury prone: he has left a game at least once in four of his eight starts in his NFL career. That includes getting injured in the first quarter against the Steelers last week.”
- 2. Panthers get their second: Andy Dalton gets revenge on Bears. “Through two starts, Dalton is averaging a 66.2% completion percentage and 269.5 passing yards per game (fifth in the NFL) with a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (tied for fifth in the NFL). His presence is why wide receiver Diontae Johnson has consecutive games with seven-plus catches, 80-plus yards receiving and a touchdown for the first time in his career. Dalton is 0-2 against the Bears in his career, but he and Carolina will beat Chicago and their ball-hawking defense (eight takeaways, tied for the third-most in the NFL).”
- 3. Saints hand Chiefs their first loss of the season. “The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are begging to lose a game. They are only the third team in NFL history to start 4-0 with a comeback of at least seven points in all four games. … The Saints will put the Chiefs in a hole early, and this week, Patrick Mahomes is unable to lead them back with fewer possessions and down another body in his receiving core in Rashee Rice.”
Garrett made a total of five bold predictions for Week 5, and you check out all of them here.
6. Extra points: Rashee Rice placed on IR
It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Chiefs place Rashee Rice on injured reserve. The Chiefs still don’t know how serious Rice’s injury is, but in the meantime, they’ve decided to place him on IR. This means he’ll have to miss at least four games and there’s a very real chance he’ll end up missing a good chunk of the season, if not all of it. Andy Reid said that Rice will undergo additional testing on his knee next week after the swelling has gone down. You can check out our full Rice update here.
- Pro Football Hall of Fame names 60 senior nominees. The seniors list started with 183 nominees and that list is now down to 60 after the HOF did some trimming on Thursday. Former 49ers RB Roger Craig and former Bengals QB Ken Anderson are two of the biggest names that made the cut down to 60. You can check out the full list of 60 players here.
- NFL could soon be making another big rule change involving the kickoff. During an interview on Good Morning Football this week, Roger Goodell said the NFL would likely end up making a few rule changes on the kickoff. This wouldn’t happen until after the season, but it looks like the league is already thinking about moving the touchback from the 30- to the 35-yard line to discourage teams from kicking touchbacks, which would then lead to more returns.
- NFL might shake up international schedule. The Jaguars are the only team in the NFL that has ever played back-to-back games in Europe, but that soon could be changing. The league is likely going to force other teams to play consecutive games in Europe once the international schedule expands. You can read more details on that here.
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Author: John Breech
October 4, 2024 | 2:00 pm
