We’re four games into the 2024 NFL season, it’s instructive to also look at how the rookies, just a month into their professional careers, are doing.
So let’s rank the top 10 picks from the 2024 NFL Draft class, a group that includes five (!) quarterbacks, three wide receivers and two offensive linemen (and, of course, zero defensive players). I watched every NFL snap for eight of the 10 players (Michael Penix Jr. and JJ McCarthy haven’t played), and their ranking below reflects both how they’ve performed, but also takes positional value into account. Put another way: quarterbacks are important!
But keep in mind: all of the active players on this list are off to good-to-great starts, so there’s a lot of reason for optimism if your team had a top-10 pick because those guys have been impressive through a month of professional football.
In case it’s not obvious, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr. and JJ McCarthy are ranked 8th, 9th and 10th because Maye has only played a series, and neither Penix Jr. nor McCarthy have played at all (and McCarthy is sidelined for the season following knee surgery). This isn’t a commentary on anything other than they haven’t seen the field.
10. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings (drafted 10th overall)
McCarthy’s knee injury in the preseason required surgery and ended his rookie campaign not long after it started. That stinks, for sure. But it also means he can learn pressure-free as Sam Darnold has a career year. McCarthy wasn’t ready to start as a rookie anyway, and this takes pressure off everyone involved; the rookie, the veteran and the coaching staff. McCarthy will be better for it in the long run.
GRADE: INCOMPLETE
9. Michael Penix, QB, Falcons (drafted 8th overall)
I loved Penix Jr. coming out of Washington and he ended up as my QB4, after Williams, Daniels and Maye. Unfortunately, he landed on a team that currently has a franchise quarterback, though one coming off an Achilles injury. We’ll see how long it takes Penix Jr. to find his way on the field.
GRADE: INCOMPLETE
8. Drake Maye, QB, Patriots (drafted 3rd overall)
The Patriots offensive line is battling injuries, and even before that, it was a mess. Here’s to hoping Maye, who is only 21, doesn’t see the field in 2024. We live in a time where rookie QBs, especially first-rounders, are expected to play, but this feels like setting him up to fail. He did play the final series against the Jets in a blowout loss and he took more hits in those snaps than Jayden Daniels has taken all season.
GRADE: INCOMPLETE
Odunze had his first big day against the Colts in Week 3 (11 catches, 112 yards, a TD) but he’s not even close to scratching the surface on what he’ll become (in the other three games, Odunze has 4 catches for 54 yards).
Part of it is the natural adjustment period it takes receivers not named Malik Nabers when they transition from college to the NFL. Odunze also isn’t 100 percent healthy; he was battling a knee injury coming out of the preseason, and he’s playing more than twice as many snaps in the slot (35 percent) than he did for the Huskies last season (16 percent). I mention that because, at times, it looks like he’s not playing with the same confidence we saw at Washington. He’ll get there though, and we’ve seen glimpses of how good he can be.
GRADE: B-
6. JC Latham, OT, Titans (drafted 7th overall)
Like Joe Alt, JC Latham is playing a new position in the NFL. He manned right tackle for the Crimson Tide last season, and previously played guard. But in Tennessee, where first-year head coach Brian Callahan wisely brought along his dad, Bill Callahan, who also happens to be one of the best offensive line coaches in history. So while I expected some growing pains from Latham, he’s been solid. Rick and I talked about him during the preseason, when he showed what we saw at Alabama: that he can be a dominant run blocker, who is still growing as a pass protector. It helps that he blocks out the sun while moving like a man half his listed weight of 360 lbs. That said, Latham has only allowed one sack in 139 pass-rush snaps. The Titans drafted him to not only protect their young quarterback, but to also help jump-start the run game. He lines up next to the team’s 2023 first-rounder, Peter Skoronski, and I think this group has a chance to be really good, sooner than later.
One of the lessons here: never doubt someone who goes by Trench King!
GRADE: B+
Harrison Jr. was a non-factor in Week 1 against the Bills where he dropped a pass and was targeted only three times. But a week later, he looked every bit the No. 4 overall pick when he had 130 yards and 2 touchdowns on four catches, showing off his deep speed, contested-catch ability and body control (and he had a chance to pad those stats but he and Kyler Murray couldn’t get on the same page in the red zone on a couple of targets). He only logged 10 receptions for 109 yards in the next two games but when you watch those reps, whether he’s lining up outside or in the slot, and see his movement skills, his route running, how he sets up the defensive back – it’s clear he’s going to be special.
I’m giving him an “B+” here because he’s not yet the focal point of the passing game. When that happens, he’ll take over games, but through four weeks, and with the way Malik Nabers has been balling, B+ feels right.
GRADE: B+
4. Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (drafted No. 1 overall)
Like a season ago, the problem for the No. 1 quarterback in the draft class might end up being the No. 2 quarterback in the draft class. Unlike a year ago, however, Caleb Williams has gotten better each week of the regular season and if not for Jayden Daniels, we’d probably all be saying that Williams is exactly where he needs to be, and on track to be really good. The recurring theme through four games is that if Williams plays on time, he’s successful. If – and this was the biggest concern coming out of USC – he plays hero ball, he’ll get himself in trouble. He’s had some uncharacteristic accuracy issues on some of his downfield throws but I chalk that up to growing into this offense more than anything else.
Rick Spielman and I talk the rookie QBs every week on the With the First Pick Podcast, and these two throws from the Week 4 win over the Rams indicate to me that the game is slowing down and this is a preview of things to come.
And the touchdown to DJ Moore, who is covered but the linebacker has his back turned and Williams trusts his receiver to make a play on the ball.
GRADE: B+
3. Joe Alt, OT, Chargers (drafted No. 5 overall)
Joe Alt played left tackle at Notre Dame in 2023 and he looks every bit the NFL left tackle, both getting off the bus and when you turn on the tape. But the Chargers have Rashawn Slater, the former first-rounder who is a very good LT in his own right. So the team moved Alt to the right side, which carries with it a lot more concerns than, “hey, line up over there instead of over here.” But you wouldn’t know it to watch Alt, who in Week 1 saw more Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins than any offensive lineman ever wants to. But in that matchup, Alt played like a grizzled veteran headed to the Hall of Fame. In fact, according to NextGen Stats, “Alt allowed zero quarterback pressures across 11 matchups against Maxx Crosby, all in 1-on-1 situations. Crosby had not been held to zero pressures in a matchup against an offensive lineman since Week 9, 2022.”
Alt suffered an MCL injury in Week 3 against the Steelers and T.J. Watt, but he’s already answered any questions about whether first-year coach Jim Harbaugh made the right decision to a) draft an offensive lineman, and b) move that offensive lineman to a new position.
GRADE: A
2. Malik Nabers, WR, Giants (drafted No. 6 overall)
Among first and second-year players, Malik Nabers leads the league in team target percentage (38%), receptions (35), receiving yards (386) and plays gaining at least 16 yards (8). Nabers has been so good that he’s made Daniel Jones a replacement-level passer (that’s a good thing!); through four games he has an expected points added (EPA) per dropback of … 0.00. That puts him between Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott. (For further perspective, among starting QBs, Jayden Daniels is No. 1 (0.32, which is essentially an All Pro performer) and Will Levis is bringing up the rear (-0.34).
Put another way: it certainly helps the quarterback, whomever he is, when your No. 1 receiver can do this:
Just throw it in Nabers’ general vicinity and he’ll take care of the rest. I’m giving Nabers an “A.” It would’ve been an A+ if Jayden Daniels wasn’t playing like the best player in the galaxy.
GRADE: A
1. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders (drafted No. 2 overall)
“Jayden Daniels is playing better than CJ Stroud was a year ago at this time.” Those aren’t my words – they’re Rick’s from Tuesday’s podcast – but I agree with them.
No player has made more progress during their college journey than Daniels, who left Arizona State with a lot of questions, arrived at LSU with no guarantees, and two seasons later won the Heisman and was the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft. And after the debacle that has been the Bryce Young experience in Carolina, I’m constantly reminding myself that fit matters. While Daniels deserves the lion’s share of the credit (the man is completing a mind-melting 82 percent of his throws!), new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has done a great job of putting Daniels in position for success, whether it’s emphasizing the RPO and quick game early in the season, or allowing him to push the ball down the field in subsequent weeks, the marriage has been a good one. Daniels, who is one of the best athletes on the field, has been judicious with when to run, and when he does, he’s generally avoided big hits. More impressive, though, is that he’s not looking to run. Instead, he’s standing in the pocket (thanks to an offensive line that’s been better than expected through the first month) and getting through his reads.
This throw vs. the Cardinals was one of my favorites from Week 4.
GRADE: A+
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Author: Ryan Wilson
October 3, 2024 | 6:46 am
