We have some fresh hot picks for you to fade this week. Here’s the deal: I give my top five ATS picks, and will sound intelligent doing so, but make sure you bet the exact opposite of what I say and become a millionaire.
I was glad the Los Angeles Chargers came through for me last week. I even doubled down live betting LAC -20.5. But of course the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans couldn’t cover the spread. Then somehow the Malik Willis-led Green Bay Packers beat the Indianapolis Colts, while the Dallas Cowboys got destroyed at home.
Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team.
All NFL odds courtesy of SportsLine consensus.
Top five picks ATS record: 1-8-1
Overall ATS record: 12-18-2
Straight up record: 18-14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
If we were creating a power rankings list off of two weeks, the Saints may be at No. 1. They registered a statement victory over the Cowboys, in which the Saints scored six touchdowns in their first six drives. The 91 points New Orleans has scored so far is tied for the fourth-most points scored in a team’s first two games in NFL history.
Klint Kubiak has this offense HUMMING, as the Saints have scored on 16 of 21 drives this season, while Alvin Kamara has clearly returned to form. His 290 yards from scrimmage lead the NFL, as do his five total touchdowns. Now, they get to return home and host a team coming off an embarrassing loss on a short week.
Will the Eagles be able to bounce back after Saquon Barkley quite literally dropped the ball, while the defense allowed Kirk Cousins to waltz down the field no problem with the game on the line? Jalen Hurts will again be without A.J. Brown, so if the Saints defense can contain him as a runner, they will move to 3-0.
The pick: Saints -2.5
Projected score: Saints 28-23
Which picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs should you lock in now? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
I guess I’m high on the NFC South? Let’s take another home favorite in the Buccaneers, who destroyed the Washington Commanders in Week 1, then upset the Detroit Lions in Week 2 thanks to a strong performance from the defense.
Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in his first few NFL games, completing just 6 of 24 passes with three interceptions on throws of 10-plus air yards. The Broncos offense is averaging 13 points per game and just 263 yards of total offense per contest. Both rank bottom four in the NFL.
The pick: Buccaneers -6.5
Projected score: Buccaneers 24-13
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Skylar Thompson takes over under center for the injured Tua Tagovailoa in Week 3. Even with Tua at QB, Miami has really struggled out of the gates. Now the Dolphins have to go on the road across the country with a backup quarterback.
Not only do we have to worry about how Thompson will fare against Mike Macdonald’s defense, but the Dolphins secondary better be up for the challenge Seattle’s receiving corps presents. Last week, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba became the first duo in Seahawks history to record 10 receptions and 100 receiving yards apiece in the win over the New England Patriots.
The pick: Seahawks -4.5
Projected score: Seahawks 23-17
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
The Chiefs are 2-0, but it doesn’t seem like they have played their best ball. In fact, the Chiefs are tied in having the worst point differential among undefeated teams (+8). Isaiah Likely’s toenail was too long for the end zone in Week 1, and then Kansas City benefitted from a pass interference penalty that led to a win over the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday.
The Chiefs have the longest active win streak in the NFL dating back to last year with eight straight victories. I think that could end in prime time in Atlanta this week. That Cousins game-winning drive in Philly is something that can spark a team, and the Falcons defense played pretty well, too. In Week 3, Patrick Mahomes is up against what is statistically the No. 7 pass defense in the NFL, and will be without Isiah Pacheco to command the ground game. The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine prime-time games, so give me the points.
The pick: Falcons +3.5
Projected score: Falcons 24-23
Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo)
I expected the Bills to take a step backwards this season, but you can’t argue with how this team has started the year They came back from down double digits against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, then dominated the Dolphins on a short week. In Week 3, Josh Allen and Co. return home to host a struggling squad in the Jaguars.
The 0-2 Jags have scored 30 points in two weeks. That’s their fewest points scored through two weeks since 2014. Trevor Lawrence has looked out of sync with his playmakers, and he has now lost seven straight starts dating back to last year. His 51% completion percentage ranks No. 30 in the NFL — behind Daniel Jones, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams — and his 382 passing yards rank No. 21. Is it in Buffalo where he gets back on track? Where the Bills have won 11 out of their last 12 home games? I’m not sure about that.
The pick: Bills -5
Projected score: Bills 27-21
Other Week 3 picks
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Author: Jordan Dajani
September 19, 2024 | 9:00 am
