How slight is the difference between winning and losing in the National Football League?
It’s thinner than a thread of hair if you ask the Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons. They completed Week 2 with a game Atlanta won 22-21 on “Monday Night Football” after having less than a 1% chance of winning, 0.7%, following the two-minute warning, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
This is why it’s time to take a zoomed-in examination of one of Week 3’s top matchups between two 2-0 teams: the Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. Sunday afternoon’s showdown between the two squads will be the first between 2-0 teams with top-two scoring defenses since Week 3 of the 1986 seasons when the Seattle Seahawks (8.5 points per game allowed entering Week 3) faced the New England Patriots (4.5 points per game) in a game Seattle won 38-21.
New Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter brought their stifling defense to the West Coast from the University of Michigan as Los Angeles leads the NFL in scoring defense through two weeks, allowing 6.5 points per game. How big of a deal is that. Well, the Chargers allowed 31.5 points per game through two games a season ago under former coach Brandon Staley, which was 30th in the league at that time. Coach Mike Tomlin’s and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin’s Pittsburgh defense remains as stingy as ever allowing eight points per game.
How will either offense gain an edge over their high-powered counterpart? Let’s take a closer look at the biggest matchups on each side of the football.
Chargers offense vs. Steelers defense
Los Angeles is coming off of its most dominant game of 2024 in Week 2, a 26-3 victory at the Carolina Panthers. It’s a game in which Baltimore Ravens import J.K. Dobbins erupted for his second game with over 130 rushing yards (131) and a touchdown on 17 carries thanks in part to a 43-yard rushing touchdown.
Dobbins is the first Charger since Pro Football Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson with 130 or more rushing yards in consecutive games, and he leads the league in rushing yards (266), longest run (61 yards), yards per carry (9.9) and rushing yards per game (133.0) through two weeks. Dobbins’ 27 carries in 2024 are the fewest by a player with more than 250 rushing yards through Week 2 in NFL history. Conversely, Pittsburgh’s run defense is allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (76.5) and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per carry (3.7) through two weeks.
Los Angeles receivers have also been running shorter routes in 2024, averaging the third-shortest route depth in the NFL, 6.5 yards, per NFL Pro Insights. The 2024 season also represents the smallest rate of vertical routes Herbert has thrown with an 11% target rate, the fourth-lowest in the league. Perhaps that’s helped wide receiver Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles’ 2023 first-round pick. He caught two touchdown passes in Week 2, tying his season-high from his maligned rookie year last season. Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert has naturally had more games with under 150 passing yards in 2024 (two) than he had in his first 62 career games combined (two). Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have acknowledged the inexperience on their receiving core with the departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this past offseason, and they have schemed accordingly.
The Chargers have also utilized two-back formations at the second-highest rate through two weeks (26.5%), trailing only the NFL’s top scoring offense in the New Orleans Saints (45.5 points per game) and their 44.3% two-back formation rate. Los Angeles is averaging 7.0 yards per play out of two-back sets, the sixth-best rate in the NFL.
A Chargers offense with more beef up front with 2024 NFL Draft fifth overall pick Joe Alt and regular fullback usage will be facing off against a Steelers offense that uses a four-man pass rush — meaning they trust their guys to get home without blitzing — on the third-highest rate in football (82%). Their faith in those four-man pass rushes, led by 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, have pressured the quarterback at the fourth-highest rate (40%) out of four-man pass-rush looks (40%), per NFL Pro Insights. Pittsburgh’s overall team quarterback pressure rate of 42.4% is also the fourth-best in the league.
Watt will likely go head to head with Alt, the Chargers’ right tackle, on Sunday since he has lined up as the left edge rusher on 93% of his snaps through two weeks. Alt has been sturdy through two weeks allowing four pressures and half a sack on 51 pass blocks, which comes out to a 7.8% quarterback pressure rate, the 12th-lowest among 33 right tackles with a minimum of 30 pass blocks. It’s also notable that Alt didn’t fold against three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby in Week 1, shutting him out on 11 one-on-one showdowns in his first NFL regular-season game. Watt will be a steeper challenge than Crosby though. His 91.5 sacks since his first Pro Bowl season in 2018 are the most in the league in that span while his 391 quarterback pressures are the fourth-most during that time.
When Herbert does drop back to pass, he’ll see a healthy dose of Cover 3 from Pittsburgh. The Steelers use Cover 3 on 52.8% of their defensive plays, the second-highest rate in football, trailing only the Indianapolis Colts (66.4%). Herbert is seeing the field better than he ever has through two games under Harbaugh and Roman with career-highs in completion percentage over expected (+8.5%) and success rate (66.7%), per NFL Pro Insights. Pittsburgh’s secondary is allowing the lowest passer rating overall (56.8) in the entire NFL through two weeks, making them a tough matchup no matter what coverage they are in.
Edge: Chargers
Steelers offense vs. Chargers defense
Pittsburgh has gotten the most efficient play, albeit in a very small sample size, out of quarterback Justin Fields in his four-season career. He has gone two consecutive starts without a turnover and two or fewer sacks for the first time in his career, and his four consecutive starts without a turnover dating to last season is the longest streak of the 25-year-old’s time in the NFL.
The football metric success rate is an indicator of how effective players and teams are at staying on schedule in terms of down and distance and producing productive plays, according to Pro Football Reference. Here is how they define success on a given play: “a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on first down, 60% of yards required on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.”
That being said, Fields, will face his toughest matchup yet in Week 3. Los Angeles runs zone coverage on 87% of opponent drop backs in 2024, the second-highest rate in the NFL, per NFL Pro Insights. They allow the fifth-lowest success rate in zone (333%), and Fields’ 39.7% success rate against it is the third-lowest in the league.
Fields also thrives on passing outside the numbers as those types of throws make up 70% of his passes, the biggest rate in the league per NFL Pro Insights, a figure that is 18% higher than the next closest quarterback: his Bears successor Caleb Williams (52%). As a result, he has targeted Steelers top receiver George Pickens nine times outside the numbers for a strong seven completions, amassing 101 yards. The problem for Fields is the Chargers defense allows the fewest air yards per attempt (3.2) on passes targeted outside the numbers, the lowest in the NFL by a wide margin: the next closest is the Vikings 6.0 air yards per attempt outside the numbers.
Edge: Chargers
Verdict: Chargers improve to 3-0
Both sides have thriving defenses and offenses with noticeable efficiency improvement. The difference is only Los Angeles — with its bigger offensive personnel, running game and Herbert’s proficiency against Cover 3 — have discernible answers for its opponent’s defensive strengths. That’s why the Chargers will improve to 3-0 on Sunday for the first time since 2002, Drew Brees’ first season as an NFL starting quarterback.
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Author: Garrett Podell
September 19, 2024 | 12:45 pm
