2024 NFL futures: NFC powers fall, according to the SportsLine Projection Model

Five NFC teams reached double figures in victories last year, with three winning division titles and the other two earning wild-card berths. No disrespect to the Los Angeles Rams, who posted 10 wins in 2023, but big things are expected of the 12-win San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys — as well as the 11-win Philadelphia Eagles — in the 2024 NFL season.

All four of those clubs had positive starts, opening the campaign with victories. However, all four were defeated in Week 2, and the reaction in a few of the teams’ home cities was as if the sky was falling.

Beginning in the NFC East, Dallas and Philadelphia lost in very different ways last weekend. The Cowboys were manhandled by New Orleans, losing 44-19 at home while allowing the Saints to record a touchdown on each of their first six possessions, while the Eagles permitted the visiting Atlanta Falcons to orchestrate a six-play, 70-yard drive with less than two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and post a 22-21 victory.

Dallas entered its contest as a 6.5-point favorite but produced just one TD versus New Orleans. The Cowboys never led and were outscored 23-6 after drawing within one score midway through the second quarter. The disappointing performance by the defense followed a Week 1 effort against the Cleveland Browns in which it made life miserable for Deshaun Watson, sacking him six times and intercepting him twice.

In the first half of the season-opening win, the Cowboys outgained the Browns 216-54 and limited them to one first down while building a 20-3 lead. A week later, Dallas gave up two scoring passes of more than 54 yards in the first 20 ½ minutes and trailed 35-16 at halftime.

One day later in the City of Brotherly Love, the Eagles were behind 15-10 after three quarters but moved ahead with 6:47 to play and added a field goal with 1:39 left after running back Saquon Barkley dropped a short pass on third-and-3. That put Philadelphia — which was a 5.5-point favorite — up 21-15, but it allowed the Falcons to march down the field and reclaim the lead before Jalen Hurts threw an interception at the Atlanta 32 to end the comeback hopes.

The Cowboys are looking to become the first team to repeat as NFC East champion since the Eagles won four consecutive division titles from 2001-04. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, they had a 57% chance to finish first after their Week 1 win over the Browns.

Following the club’s embarrassing setback against the Saints, the model – which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception – listed Dallas’ division title chances at 41%. But thanks to Philadelphia’s late implosion on Monday Night Football, the model projects the Cowboys win the East 52% of the time and has the Eagles’ chances at 46%.

Detroit won its first division title since 1993 last season and was one half away from making the first Super Bowl appearance in team history, but allowed a 24-7 halftime lead at San Francisco slip away. The club is expected to finish atop the NFC North once again, but things haven’t exactly gone as planned thus far.

The Lions squandered a 14-point, second-half lead against the Rams in their season opener before coming up with a game-tying field goal with 17 seconds left in the fourth quarter and a TD in overtime. They then yielded a game-winning touchdown by the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 34 seconds remaining in Week 2 after taking their first lead of the game less than three minutes earlier.

Detroit, which was a 7.5-point favorite against the Buccaneers, saw its chances to make its Super Bowl debut drop from 8.3% to 7% with the 20-16 loss, according to the model. Its simulations also say the Lions now win the Vince Lombardi Trophy 3.3% of the time after projecting their chances at 3.9% prior to the defeat.

The 49ers have reached the postseason four of the last five years and made their second Super Bowl appearance during that span in 2023, when they were defeated by the Kansas City Chiefs 25-22 in overtime. They’ve won back-to-back NFC West titles and got their quest for a third straight off to a good start with a convincing 32-19 home triumph over the New York Jets, but they stumbled in Week 2, dropping a 23-17 decision to the Vikings in Minnesota as 4-point favorites.

Injuries to key weapons on offense could put a wrinkle in San Francisco’s plans for a three-peat in the NFC West. Reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey has yet to make his season debut due to calf and Achilles injuries and will miss at least the team’s next three games after being placed on injured reserve prior to Week 2. 

Meanwhile, wideout Deebo Samuel strained his calf late in the loss to Minnesota after making eight catches for 110 yards and is expected to miss “a couple weeks,” according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. McCaffrey and Samuel both play big roles in San Francisco’s passing and rushing attacks, although Jordan Mason has run for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of the team’s first two games while filling in for McCaffrey.

Being without their two best skill-position players could result in more losses and severely damage the 49ers’ path to the postseason. The SportsLine Projection Model has their chances of reaching the playoffs at 82% heading into their Week 3 matchup against the division-rival Los Angeles Rams, but they would drop to 70% with a defeat at SoFi Stadium.

The model’s projections for San Francisco winning the Super Bowl also would continue to fade with a setback on Sunday. It had the 49ers capturing their sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy 17% of the time after their victory against the Jets, but that dropped to 11.6% following the loss at Minnesota. Should they fall to the Rams, their chances dip to 8.6%.

Even though Los Angeles is also missing its top two receivers (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua) due to injuries, the model is calling for a one-score decision between the Rams and 49ers in Week 3. It also is predicting tight affairs in the Eagles-Saints, Cowboys-Ravens and Lions-Cardinals matchups. However, none of those contests are the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the third week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 3 NFL picks at SportsLine.