Why Nick Sirianni feels even more confident about Eagles kicking FG instead of going for it in loss to Falcons

Nick Sirianni doesn’t regret the decision to kick a field goal instead of going for it to win the game late in the Philadelphia Eagles‘ loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. After Saquon Barkley dropped a third-and-3 pass and the Falcons’ 13-yard line that would have given the Eagles a first down and an 18-15 victory, Sirianni brought the field goal unit out to put the Eagles up, 21-15, with 1:42 left. 

If Barkley caught the pass, all the Eagles would have had to do is line up in victory formation with the Falcons having no timeouts left. Going for it on fourth-and-3 and getting the first down would have sealed the win as well.

Sirianni opted to kick, explaining why going up six and giving the Falcons the ball back was better than not converting the fourth down and leaving the Falcons at the Eagles’ 13-yard line — needing a field goal to tie with under 1:40 left and no timeouts. 

“If you look at the history of that call, and I’m gonna try to drag myself through the mud as much as I possibly can,” Sirianni said Wednesday. “What I did was I looked through the entire league and said to our analytics department ‘Could you give me every fourth-down decision when teams are in range with a four-minute offense?’ So I asked for every time it was one point to five points when the team was up and every fourth down from the 34 and in. 

“I’ve put myself in that situation prior to the call. My conviction in the moment was I knew exactly what I wanted (to do). Is the outcome always what you want? No, but I was completely convicted there that the field goal was the right decision based off all my studies. 

“Now, I come back and evaluate it? And I’m even more convicted to be quite honest with you. Because of everything that goes into that.”

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Eagles had a 94% chance to win prior to kicking the field goal on fourth down. After the Eagles kicked the field goal, the win probability went down to 85% — even though the score went from 18-15 to 21-15. 

“There’s a different stress being down six as opposed to three,” Sirianni said. “That’s also my experience as an offensive coach.”

Once the Eagles kicked the ball into the end zone, the Falcons had to go 70 yards in 1:39 to tie the game with a touchdown. Atlanta needed just six plays to accomplish that, gaining 58 yards in 43 seconds to get into the red zone. Cousins threw a touchdown pass to Drake London with 38 seconds to play, and Younghoe Koo kicked the extra point to give the Falcons the 22-21 lead over the Eagles in the final minute. 

The Eagles blew their fourth lead with under two minutes to play in the fourth quarter since the start of last season, which is tied for the most in the NFL. Regardless of Sirianni’s decision, he doesn’t regret the choice he made to give the Falcons the ball back in the loss.